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沪镍期货日报-20260210
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 13:20
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily report of Langzhen Futures, dated February 9, 2026, and the researcher is Du Yu [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The nickel price in the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a volatile and strong trend today, with the opening price at 133,020 yuan/ton, the highest price reaching 135,380 yuan/ton, the lowest price dropping to 131,800 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 134,520 yuan/ton, up 1.45% from the previous trading day [2] - The current futures price is still at a certain discount relative to the spot price, reflecting the market's expectation of loose future supply. The rebound of LME nickel price supports the domestic market, and the linkage between the internal and external markets has increased [3] - The weak dollar in the overseas market and the strengthening of U.S. stock index futures have jointly boosted the global risk appetite and the valuation of commodities. In the domestic market, funds flowing from broad-based tracks to cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals have provided liquidity support for nickel prices. The full implementation of the EU carbon tariff has strengthened the market's expectation of reshaping the valuation of nickel as a green metal [4] - In the short term, macro positive factors and pre-holiday capital reallocation have jointly promoted the rebound of nickel prices, but the pattern of loose supply and demand has not fundamentally changed. The progress of nickel iron production resumption in Indonesia exceeding expectations will suppress prices. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading will gradually become light, and price fluctuations may increase [5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The main contract of nickel futures (NI.SHF) in the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a volatile and strong trend today, with the opening price at 133,020 yuan/ton, the highest price reaching 135,380 yuan/ton, the lowest price dropping to 131,800 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 134,520 yuan/ton, up 1.45% from the previous trading day [2] 2. Spot Market Basis Analysis - On February 9, the price of imported nickel (1) in China was 19,398.3402 US dollars/ton. The current futures price is still at a certain discount relative to the spot price, reflecting the market's expectation of loose future supply. The rebound of LME nickel price supports the domestic market, and the linkage between the internal and external markets has increased [3] 3. Market Dynamics - Macro positive factors: The weak dollar in the overseas market and the strengthening of U.S. stock index futures have jointly boosted the global risk appetite and the valuation of commodities. In the domestic market, funds flowing from broad-based tracks to cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals have provided liquidity support for nickel prices. Policy factors: The full implementation of the EU carbon tariff has strengthened the market's expectation of reshaping the valuation of nickel as a green metal [4] 4. Market Outlook - In the short term, macro positive factors and pre-holiday capital reallocation have jointly promoted the rebound of nickel prices, but the pattern of loose supply and demand has not fundamentally changed. The progress of nickel iron production resumption in Indonesia exceeding expectations will suppress prices. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading will gradually become light, and price fluctuations may increase [5]