2025年08月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏弱，但终端需求改善，月差仍偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：弱现实强预期，月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：本周到港偏低，基差走强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短线回调，中期仍为区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：出货未见好，原油难偏多 | 8 | | LLDPE：区间震荡 | 11 | | PP：趋势偏弱，但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱：偏多对待，但需注意近月仓单情况 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：短期消息面驱动，上方空间收窄 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：近月挤仓风险仍在 | 22 | | 丙烯：成本支撑偏弱 | 22 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 25 | | 燃料油：弱势震荡走势为主，短期波动缩小 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅盘整，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理，1 ...

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/08/04 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 950-1350 | 32.68% | 63.87% | | 焦炭 | 1480-1900 | 25.37% | 49.13% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 套利 | 月间套利 | 无 | 做空焦煤9-1价差 | jm2509&jm2601 | 卖出 | （-40，-30） | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | 单位 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-01 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is weak with oscillations, and it will enter an oscillatory pattern in the medium term. In the short term, a large number of speculative funds have left the market, causing the commodity index to decline from its high, and methanol futures have followed suit. Also, with the strengthening of the basis, the supply of spot goods in the spot market is expected to increase, putting pressure on the supply side. In the medium term, methanol is expected to oscillate. The "anti - involution" policy provides some support for the overall valuation of commodities, and the current fundamentals of methanol are neutral, with the port unloading situation being the key point to watch [4]. - For single - sided trading, it is weak in the short term and oscillatory in the medium term, with an upper pressure range of 2420 - 2430 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - Charts show the trends of basis, month - spreads (9 - 1, 5 - 9), and the number of warehouse receipts of methanol from 2020 - 2025 [7][8][9][10]. - Domestic and international spot price trends of methanol from 2020 - 2025 are presented, including prices in regions like Inner Mongolia, Henan, and international prices in CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia, and FOB Rotterdam [12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. - Port - inland price spread trends from 2020 - 2025 are shown, such as the spread between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and Lunan [19][20][21][22]. 3.2 Supply - From 2024 - 2025, China's new methanol production capacity has expanded significantly. In 2024, the total expansion was 400 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 840 million tons. Overseas, the total new capacity in 2024 was 355 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 330 million tons [24]. - A list of domestic methanol plant maintenance from 2019 - 2025 is provided, including information on affected regions, manufacturers, production capacity, raw materials, start and end times [26]. - Charts display the production volume, capacity utilization rate of methanol in China and different regions, and production volume by different production processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, coal co - alcohol) from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30][32][33]. - Data on methanol imports in China from 2020 - 2025 are presented, including import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit [36][37][38][39]. - Charts show the production cost and profit of methanol by different production processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.3 Demand - Charts show the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, etc.) in China from 2020 - 2025 [49][50][51][53][54]. - Data on the production profit of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [57][58][60][61][62][63]. - Charts show the procurement volume of methanol by downstream industries (MTO and traditional downstream) in different regions of China from 2020 - 2025 [65][66][67][68][70][71][72][73]. - Data on the raw material inventory of traditional downstream industries in different regions of China from 2020 - 2025 are presented [75][76][77][78]. 3.4 Inventory - Charts show the factory inventory of methanol in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia) from 2018 - 2025 [80][81][82][83]. - Charts show the port inventory of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) from 2018 - 2025 [86][87][88].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is gradually accepting the TACO trade, where investors bet on a rebound in the stock market amid Trump's tariff threats, leading to increased risk appetite and positive valuation for commodities as expectations for Fed rate cuts rise [1] - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are proactively supporting the market, with expectations for incremental policies remaining strong, positively impacting iron ore prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The expected increase in shipments from the four major mining companies for 2025 has been adjusted down to 5.5 million tons, significantly lower than the initial market expectations of 20-25 million tons [2] - Brazilian Vale's shipment increase is approximately 5 million tons, while Australian Rio Tinto is expected to see a reduction of about 5 million tons due to adverse weather conditions [2] - Domestic iron ore production is declining due to price drops and increased maintenance, with a reported 9.76% year-on-year decrease in iron concentrate production in May [4] Group 3: Demand Factors - Domestic demand for iron ore remains strong, supported by high steel production and infrastructure investments, with a 3.27% year-on-year increase in pig iron production from January to May [5] - The overall pig iron production for the first half of the year is projected to be around 84.3 million tons, with a slight year-on-year decline expected [5] Group 4: Inventory Trends - Domestic ports have been reducing inventories due to supply contractions and resilient demand, with expectations for a slight accumulation of iron ore inventory to around 15 million tons by the end of the year [6] - The forecast for Dalian iron ore futures prices is set between 690 RMB/ton and 790 RMB/ton, corresponding to external prices of 91 USD/ton to 105 USD/ton [6]

国信期货研究所 供需平稳库存去化 螺纹区间震荡 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年6月22日 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 4 后市展望 国信期货研究所 第 一部 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 中国人民银行发布数据显示，截至2025年5月末，广义货币(M2)余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%。狭义货币(M1)余额108.91万亿元，同比 增长2.3%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.13万亿元，同比增长12.1%。前五个月净投放现金3064亿元。2024年同期防资金空转的政策效应导致的低 基数使得5月M1增速明显回升。 2. 中国人民银行发布数据显示， 5月末，本外币贷款余额270.2万亿元，同比增长6.7%。前五个月人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元。分部门看，住 户贷款增加5724亿元，其中，短期贷款减少2624亿元，中长期贷款增加834 ...