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紫光股份(000938):新华三强劲增长,全球布局持续深化
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-04 10:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company continues to show strong growth, with its core subsidiary, Xinhua San, achieving rapid revenue growth and resilient profits. Domestic enterprise business is expanding steadily, while international business is growing quickly, with a deepening global layout. In Q3, the gross margin experienced structural adjustments due to the phased delivery of customized servers, but cost control was effective, and cash flow improved significantly [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 77.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.4 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.46 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the operating revenue reached 29.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 360 million yuan, down 37.6% year-on-year and 47.6% quarter-on-quarter [6][8]. Business Segments - The core subsidiary, Xinhua San, performed strongly, with revenue of 59.62 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%. The domestic enterprise business revenue was 51.5 billion yuan, up 62.6% year-on-year, while international business revenue reached 3.48 billion yuan, up 84.0% year-on-year. The company has established 22 overseas branches and has nearly 3,600 partners, covering 181 countries and regions [2][6]. Margin and Cash Flow - The gross margin for Q3 was 11.3%, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year and 3.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to changes in revenue structure. The operating cash flow net amount for Q3 was 3.09 billion yuan, showing significant improvement, mainly due to the rapid growth in demand in the internet sector and high shipment volumes [2][6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is firmly advancing its AI strategy, enhancing the synergy of "computing power × connectivity," and accelerating the deployment of technologies and products such as super nodes, high-speed switches, and CPO/NPO. It aims to build an integrated AI cloud platform with comprehensive service capabilities for large models [2][6]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain good growth, with projected net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.942 billion yuan, 2.318 billion yuan, and 2.826 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 19%, and 22% [2][6].