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银行:14天OMO、MDS、MLF的定价
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-11 07:33
Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the pricing mechanisms of 14-day OMO, MDS, and MLF, emphasizing that these tools are subject to a bidding process with multiple price points, and their pricing should theoretically be lower than market rates due to central bank backing [9][10] - The report highlights that the average winning bid rates for these tools are influenced by policy rates, market rates, the bank's own positions, and interbank conditions [10][11] - The expected average winning bid rates for various tools are projected, with 14-day OMO expected to maintain around 1.45%, 3M MDS at approximately 1.5%, and 1Y MLF at around 1.70% [12][13] Summary by Sections 1. Pricing of 14-day OMO, MDS, and MLF - The report outlines the operational changes since September 19, 2025, where the central bank restarted the 14-day OMO and adjusted it to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price points [9] - It notes that the 14-day OMO is not a regular operation and is typically concentrated around specific periods such as before the Spring Festival and late September [9] 2. Considerations for Bidding - Banks consider four main factors when bidding: policy rates, market rates, their own positions, and interbank conditions [10] - The 7-day OMO rate serves as a benchmark, currently at 1.4%, which influences the rates of other monetary policy tools [10] 3. Expected Winning Bid Rates - The report predicts that the 14-day OMO rate will remain around 1.45%, with historical spreads between 7-day and 14-day OMO rates being approximately 15 basis points [12] - It also anticipates that the 3M MDS will be around 1.5% and the 1Y MLF at approximately 1.70% [13]