1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on cross - Spring Festival funds is controllable. The overall liquidity in February is expected to remain stable, with the risk of significant fluctuations being under control, although attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [4][71]. - In January, the central bank actively adjusted monetary policy tools. It cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The central bank also increased the scale of bond purchases to maintain liquidity [3][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - Month Review of the Capital Market and Liquidity 3.1.1 Capital Market Review - In January 2026, the overnight capital fluctuated in a slightly wider range compared to the previous month, showing an oscillatory upward trend with a fluctuation range of 0.18%. The 7D capital fluctuated in a narrower range and basically remained stable around 1.5%. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds [10]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank significantly withdrew cross - year funds, and the capital operation was generally stable and loose. In the middle of the month, due to the maturity of the 6M reverse repurchase and the freezing of funds for new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, there was a brief friction in the capital market. Later, with the net injection of funds, the liquidity gradually stabilized. Towards the end of the month, the pressure on capital increase was relatively controllable [2][11]. - The capital stratification pressure in January was at a seasonally low level. The spread between R007 and DR007 decreased, and the spread between GC007 and DR007 also compressed, both at seasonally low levels [16]. - The volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonally low level, and the daily average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly compared to the previous month [23][24]. - Banks' net lending scale remained relatively high, and the net lending scale of money market funds first increased and then decreased [30]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In January, the base money increased by 1.6 billion yuan. The government deposit consumed about 1.1 trillion yuan of the base money, the central bank's net injection was 1.19 trillion yuan, and the foreign exchange funds continued to be slightly withdrawn by 7 billion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve freezing, cash withdrawal, and changes in non - financial institution deposits, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 692 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.3%, which was seasonally high. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was about 0.7%, close to the seasonal level [33]. - **Open - Market Operations**: In January, the central bank slightly withdrew short - term reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net injection of - 3.22 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 90 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.95 trillion yuan. The 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases had a net injection of 30 billion yuan in total. The central bank also increased its net purchase of national debt by 10 billion yuan and carried out operations such as treasury time deposits and PSL [39][44]. 3.2 1 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In January 2026, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25bp. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, as the exchange rate and net interest margin constraints have eased [3][52]. - The central bank continued its liquidity - caring approach, injecting 1 trillion yuan of medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases. In January, the central bank increased its bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan [3][52]. - The central bank may further create tools to provide liquidity support for non - bank institutions, and may refer to the SRF and some phased tools. It also promotes the interconnection of financial markets and supports the construction of the offshore RMB market [55]. 3.3 2 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In February, as it is a month with relatively less deposit growth, the increase in general deposits will consume about 3.45 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF maturity is 30 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase maturity is 1.2 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 50 billion yuan for 6M), with 80 billion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase being renewed [58]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits will slightly consume excess reserves in February. The "currency issuance" item may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 9.65 billion yuan [62]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government deposit may consume about 44.34 billion yuan of liquidity in February. Considering factors such as bond payment, tax revenue, and fiscal expenditure, the government bond issuance is relatively large this month [67]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap pressure in February is similar to that in January, mainly coming from the pressure of cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival and government bond payment. However, considering the current liquidity status of the banking system and the central bank's operation idea of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the cross - year funds are expected to remain stable, and the risk of significant fluctuations is controllable [70][71]. - Since January, the central bank has actively operated monetary policy tools, with an incremental injection of 1 trillion yuan through MLF and 6M outright reverse repurchases, and an increase in the bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan. The 14D reverse repurchase was launched earlier before the Spring Festival, and the cross - Spring Festival pressure is controllable. However, the progress of cross - Spring Festival funds in the inter - bank market is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [5][73].

2026 年 2 月 8 日 总量研究 ——2026 年 2 月 8 日利率债观察 要点 7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 1、7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 近段时间，市场中对 7D OMO 降息的预期有所升温。这主要是不少投资者"判 断"2 月 4 日 3M 买断式逆回购的边际中标利率已降至 1.4%。鉴于当前 7D OMO 利率也为 1.4%，而 3M 和 7D 的央行资金利率之间通常会有一定的期限利差， 因此一些投资者认为本次 3M 买断式逆回购利率的下行将倒逼 7D OMO 降息。 实际上，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作采用的是固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标的方式，边际中标利率由市场化形成，不具有政策利率的属性。人民银行加大 流动性投放力度，买断式逆回购和 MLF 的量给得足一些，那么自然其边际中标 利率就容易低一些。所以，买断式逆回购边际中标利率的下降与 7D OMO 降息 之间并无必然的联系，或至少说是没有直接的联系。 进一步讲，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作数量的确定在主观上是为了调控 CD 等货 币市场利率，在客观上又会影响到工具本身的边际中标利率。因此，对于大多数 投资者而言，关注可以实时获 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260208 周观：债市震荡格局如何打破？（2026 年第 6 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 李勇 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260202-20260206）》 2026-02-07 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20260202- 20260206）》 2026-02-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 41 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 央行公开市场买卖国债增量，但债市反应幅度有限，震荡格局如何打 破？本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6），10 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】为维护春节前银行体系流动性合理充裕，中国人民银行加大了公开市场操作力 度。2月5日，央行重启暂停已久的14天期逆回购操作，并配合7天期逆回购及买断式逆回购等工具，打 出了一套"组合拳"，以平滑春节前后资金面波动。 重启 14 天逆回购，单日净投放 645 亿元 多工具联动，强化流动性管理 除了常规逆回购，央行此前一天还加量续作了3个月期买断式逆回购。2月4日，央行开展8000亿元买断 式逆回购操作，净投放1000亿元，这是四个月以来该品种首次加量续作。交易员表示，买断式逆回购的 净投放显示了央行呵护态度未变，短期内流动性无需过度担忧。 回顾2026年1月，央行通过MLF净投放7000亿元，国债买卖净投放1000亿元等多种手段，保持了流动性 的合理充裕。此外，中国人民银行近日召开的2026年信贷市场工作会议也强调，要落实好结构性货币政 策工具增量政策，加强对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的优质金融服务，大力发展科技金融、绿色金 融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融。 市场层面，近期关于"类ONRRP"等非银流动性新工具的讨论升温。中信证券研报表示，鉴于降准成本 低于扩表类工具，在净息差收窄及预计 ...

据央视新闻，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，今天（2月4日）中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限 为3个月（91天）。 买断式逆回购是中国人民银行于2024年10月推出的新工具，是在央行每日根据一级交易商需求连续开展7天期逆回购操作的基础上，额外投放的中长期资 金。买断式逆回购可以使央行更加及时、精准地调节市场流动性。 此外，2月4日，央行公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了750亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.4%。因今日有3775亿元7天期逆回购和7000亿元3 个月（91天）买断式逆回购到期，叠加央行开展的8000亿元3个月（91天）买断式逆回购操作，实现净回笼2025亿元。 | | | | 中国人民银行 | 货币政策司 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | Monetary Policy Department | | | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信 ...

文/刘佳 总体而言，1月央行通过多种政策工具，向市场投放流动性，期限覆盖从短期到长期（国债买卖净投放 到1000亿元）。如此大规模流动性投放确实降低短期内尤其是春节前实施全面降准的紧迫性和可能 性。"董希淼表示。 此外，央行官网还公布了2026年1月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。 数据显示，1月MLF净投放7000亿元，常备借贷便利（SLF）净投放﹣79亿元，其他结构性货币政策工 具净投放641亿元。与此同时，公开市场操作方面，1月公开市场国债买卖净投放1000亿元，7天期逆回 购净投放1678亿元，中央国库现金管理净投放﹣600亿元，其他期限逆回购净投放1000亿元。 编辑：冯樱子 董希淼预计，2月15日左右央行将开展6个月期买断式逆回购，或为等量或加量续作，从而实现本月买断 式逆回购净投放。2月25日左右，央行还将开展MLF操作，预计仍然等量或加量续作。 "央行通过买断式逆回购和MLF操作，连续多月向市场注入中短期流动性，有力地维护市场流动性充 裕，保障岁末年初金融市场平稳运行，并进一步改善市场流动性的期限结构。如1月23日央行还大动作 开展 9000亿元1年期MLF操作，向市场净投放中期流动性7000 ...

多位业内人士指出，在存款端改善、央行持续呵护流动性以及信贷投放节奏偏缓等多重因素共同作用 下，银行对同业负债的边际依赖度明显下降，银行体系呈现出"钱多不紧"的运行状态，并对债券市场与 理财产品收益形成一系列连锁影响。 同业存单净融资持续为负 价格层面，同业存单票面利率同步走低。Wind数据显示，进入2026年1月后，国股行同业存单发行利率 持续下行，一年期品种1月底已降至1.59%左右，而去年11月仍维持在2.03%的水平。 同业存单净融资持续为负且利率下行，推动债市走强但压制理财产品收益。 2026年初，银行同业负债端出现明显收缩迹象。Wind数据显示，国有大行和股份制银行同业存单净融 资规模已连续三个月为负，且负值逐月扩大；与此同时，同业存单发行利率持续下行，1月底已降至 1.59%附近。 从量的角度看，银行同业存单市场出现明显"减负"迹象。Wind数据显示，2025年11月、12月及2026年1 月，国有大行和股份制银行同业存单净融资额分别为-5111.90亿元、-5775.50亿元和-6229.50亿元，负值 规模逐月扩大。 净融资为负，意味着当月到期量高于新发行规模，银行更多是在压降存量，而非通过同 ...

记者 辛圆 中国人民银行2月3日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2月4日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月(91天)。 2月有7000亿3个月期买断式逆回购到期。由此，央行2月4日开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，意味着当 月3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作，加量规模为1000亿。这是近四个月以来3个月期买断式逆回购首次加 量续作。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，这背后的主要原因在于，为保障重点领域重大项目资金 需求，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头，2026年新增地方政府债务限额已提前下达，这意味着尽管2月春节 长假来临，但仍会有一定规模的政府债券发行。此外，2025年10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完 毕后，会带动今年一季度配套贷款较大规模投放。以上都会在一定程度上带来资金面收紧效应。 王青认为，着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，能 够引导节前资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放 力度的同时，也在释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续 ...

本周（2月2日-6日）7天逆回购到期规模合计达17615亿元，周五还将有7000亿元3M买断式回购到期。 政府债净缴款规模将下降至4604亿元，且主要集中在周五，规模达到3083亿元；2月5日为上旬缴准日。 整体上看，本周央行政策工具到期及政府债缴款压力仍较大，临近春节假期取现需求可能也会有所上 升，但考虑央行整体维持宽松基调，有望在5日对3M买断式到期进行超额续作，预计资金面整体仍将维 持平稳。 展望2月，华西证券指出，受春节取现以及政府债集中发行影响，资金面或依然面临阶段性扰动，不过 当前央行宽货币态度较为明显，流动性投放有望继续加码，节前资金面大概率趋稳。当前央行呵护信号 显著，或通过7天或14天逆回购、买断式逆回购等多种工具，加码流动性投放，以稳定春节前后资金 面。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，春节前居民取现高峰来临，而为保障重点领域重大项目资金需求， 政府债券发行规模会继续处于较高水平，资金面扰动因素增加。为应对潜在流动性可能存在收紧的趋 势，预计中国人民银行会在春节前一周启用14天期逆回购，同时灵活开展买断式逆回购和MLF操作， 继续向市场注入一定规模的中期流动性。尽管短期内降准概率不大，但资 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | C | 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 2026/2/2 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.33 | -3.36 | DR007 | 1.59 | 0.19 | | ਰੀ ਸਨ ti | GC001 SHBOR 3M | 1.61 1.59 | 0.50 -0.20 | GC007 LPR 5年 | 1.61 3.50 | -1.50 0.00 | | 2 | 1年期国债 | 1.30 | 0.02 | 5年期国债 | 1.58 | -0.23 | | | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | -0.97 | 10年期美债 | 4.26 | 2.00 | | न | 1 | | 【 】【 】【 】 】 】 【 】 【 】 【 】 【 】 【 】 【 】 【 】 【 】 】 【 】 【 】 】 【 】 】 【 】 】 】 【 ...