2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面宽松平稳， D R001 加权平均利率小幅下行并停留于 1.32% 附近。匿名点击系统（ X-repo ）上，隔夜报价在 1.30% 供给充盈；非银机构质押存单和信用债融入隔夜报价稳定在 1.46- 1.48% 。 央行 3 月 25 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 785 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标 量 785 亿元，中标量 785 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 逆回购到期 205 亿元，据此计算，单日净投放 580 亿元。与此同时，当日另有 4500 亿元 1 年期 MLF 到期， 央行 将同步开展 5000 亿元 MLF 操作。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.62% 。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） // 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 30 年期主力合约涨 0.01% 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在 1.5325% 附近。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-03-25 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-03-04 | 2026/02 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.0 | 49.2 | 50.2 | | 2026-03-04 | 2026/02 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.5 | 49.5 | 50.4 | | 2026-03-16 | 2026/02 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 23855 | 24926 | 22331 | | 2026-03-13 | 2026/02 | M0:同比 | % | 14.1 | 10.6 | 9.7 | | 2026-03-13 | 2026/02 | M1:同比 | % | 5.9 | 4.9 | ...

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行 3 月 24 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 175 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 175 亿元，中标量 175 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 510 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算， 单日净回笼 335 亿元 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面依旧平稳宽松， D R001 加权平均利率小升并徘徊于 1.32% 附近。匿名点击系统（ X-repo ）上，隔夜报价仍在 1.30% ，供给超千亿。非银机构方面，以存单和信用债作为抵押品的隔夜 融入需求延续，报价区间大致在 1.45%-1.48% ，与前一交易日差异不大。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.62% 。 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在 1.535% 附近。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | | 1Y | 24 | ЗУ | SY | 7 ...

文字早评 2026/03/25 星期三 2、欧元区 3 月制造业 PMI 初值为 51.4，预期 49.4，2 月终值 50.8；服务业 PMI 初值为 50.1，预期 51.1， 2 月终值 51.9；综合 PMI 初值为 50.5，预期 51，2 月终值 51.9； 3、央行连续 13 个月加量操作 MLF，3 月 25 日，央行将开展 5000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期，3 月有 4500 亿元 MLF 到期； 4、佰维存储：签订 15 亿美元存储晶圆采购合同。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：8.56%/7.17%/7.53%/7.33%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：8.48%/10.01%/9.65%/9.12%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：9.60%/11.34%/10.97%/10.88%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：2.49%/2.43%/2.79%/3.96%。 【策略观点】 美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，鲍威尔与欧洲央行官员鹰派表态，通胀升温促使美联储降息预期退潮，美 债收益率快速攀升；国内出口韧性、PPI 连续收窄，建议关注战局转变，注意控制风险。 宏观 ...

重要的消息有哪些 1．晨光电机3月25日开启申购，发行代码为920011，本次发行价格15.50元 ，发行市盈率为14.96倍，单一账户申购上限为93.00万股。 2．国务院国资委：要着力加快高新产业布局，引导中央企业将更多具备条件的科研机构、高新技术企业、中试基地落户雄安新区 3月24日，国务院国资委党委召开扩大会议，会议强调，要全力保障疏解工作推进，与雄安新区深入对接、加强沟通，指导首批搬迁的中央企业稳定运 行、持续发挥标志性带动作用，后续疏解的中央企业按时间节点加快建设，保障中央企业更好融入雄安新区。要持续引导中央企业集聚投资，积极参与智 能高效、安全韧性的基础设施投资建设，助力完善配套功能，发挥中央企业产业链优势，加快落地强链补链、具有产业聚集力的重点项目，不断增强辐射 带动作用，强化龙头企业牵引力带动力，吸引更多优秀企业落户雄安新区。要着力加快高新产业布局，引导中央企业将更多具备条件的科研机构、高新技 术企业、中试基地落户雄安新区，鼓励中央企业开展自主创新、加快关键核心技术攻关，推动相关成果在雄安新区转化应用，支持中央企业围绕新一代信 息技术、卫星互联网等领域，大力发展具备国际竞争力的创新业务，助力 ...

执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收吕品：存单曲线下移，券商延续抛 券——流动性与机构行为跟踪 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2026 年 03 月 24 日 分析师：戴志锋 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略 张文宇：规模指数的隐性成本：市场 特征与调仓机制如何影响长期收 益？》2026-03-23 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】计算 机苏仪：OpenClaw 辨析——再次强 调其安全应用》2026-03-19 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】计算 机苏仪：建议中短期关注专用量子计 算进展，长期布局通用量子计算》 2026-03-19 今日预览 今日重点>> 【固收】吕品：存单曲线下移，券商延续抛券-——流动性与机构行为 跟踪 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【固收】吕品：存单曲线下移，券商延续抛券-——流动性与机构行为跟踪 本周（3.16-3.20）关注要点：本周资金利率多数下行，大行融出日均环比小幅下行，基金小幅降 杠杆；存单到期增加，存单到期收益率多数下行；现券成交来看，买盘主力来自其 ...

债市平论：市场要选择方向了 20260323 摘要 中证转债指数 3 月累跌 7.1%回吐全年涨幅，理财子大额赎回中高波动 产品，保险逆势加仓。 转债后市大概率维持震荡，建议关注具备债底支撑、化债诉求强（目标 平价 130 元）的优质中低价标的。 利率债转向震荡，10 年国债区间 1.78%-1.85%，30 年国债上限参考 2.3%，配置盘建议拉长久期。 央行主动回笼 MLF 概率低，货币政策维持支持性立场，若 MLF 缩量或 强化市场降准预期。 基金为信用债配置主力，1-3 年期品种增持显著，二季度信用债抱团赚 取票息趋势难逆转。 4 月关键变量：特别国债发行计划落地、财报季基本面验证、MLF 续作 信号及海外关税影响。 Q&A 2026 年 3 月 23 日权益与可转债市场表现如何，机构资金流向呈现何种特征？ 2026 年 3 月 23 日，权益与可转债市场出现较大跌幅，但可转债表现相对抗跌。 上证指数当日跌幅达 3.6%，盘中一度跌破 3,800 点。历史上，单日跌幅超过 3.6%的情况较少，主要发生在 2025 年 4 月 7 日（-7.3%，受海外关税影响）、 2024 年 10 月 9 日（-6 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸易所得 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2026/3/23 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DROO1 | 1.32 | 0.03 | DR007 | 1.42 | -0.62 | | 员 | GC001 | 1.10 | -20.00 | GC007 | 1.46 | -2.50 | | 市 | SHBOR 3M | 1.52 | -0.60 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.26 | 0.21 | 5年期国债 | 1.56 | 0.77 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 10年期美债 | 4.39 | 14.00 | | பர | | | 回顾:上周央行公开市场开展了2423亿元逆回购 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in March 2026 is expected to be relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the asset - liability situation of banks. Factors such as high maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit, possible "rushing for volume" of bank credit at the end of the quarter, demand for improving liquidity regulatory indicators, impact of foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus on bank asset - liability behavior, and potential regulatory control over bank inter - bank liability behavior need to be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From February 24 - 28, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 61.14 billion yuan, and the treasury time deposit matured at 15 billion yuan. On February 25, the central bank's medium - term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 30 billion yuan. From March 2 - 6, 2026, 152.5 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature. In March, the maturity amounts of 3M and 6M repurchase agreements are 100 billion yuan and 60 billion yuan respectively, and the MLF maturity amount is 45 billion yuan [2][6]. - **Funding Rates**: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.43% respectively, up 3.9 and 2.4 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.51% and 1.57% respectively, down 1.1 and 1.0 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026 [6]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the government bond net financing was about 19.036 billion yuan, 52.33 billion yuan less than that from February 9 - 15, 2026. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the government bond net financing is expected to be about 21.2 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds at about - 10.5 billion yuan and that of local government bonds at about 31.7 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield**: As of February 27, 2026, the 1M and 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit yields were 1.4891% and 1.5550% respectively, down 6.6 basis points and basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026. The 1Y yield was 1.5775%, basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 212.4 billion yuan. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the maturity repayment amount is expected to be 58.8 billion yuan, with a slightly lower maturity renewal pressure. The maturity scale in March is about 3.59 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.64 trillion yuan year - on - year and about 1.73 trillion yuan month - on - month [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Bond Market Leverage**: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.49%, slightly lower than the average of 107.79% from February 9 - 14, 2026 [9]. - **Pure Bond Fund Duration**: On February 27, 2026, the median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.47 years, up 0.07 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.7% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 2.06 years, up 0.40 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 7D OMO rate cut in March and April this year is worth expecting, and the next 7D OMO rate cut is likely to lead to a parallel downward shift in the short - and long - ends of the yield curve. If the central bank cuts the reserve requirement ratio in the next quarter, investors should not be surprised [2][12][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Enjoy the Decline in Yields - From the end of August 2025 to the present, the 10Y Treasury bond yield has fluctuated between 1.8% - 1.9%. After a long - term narrow - range shock, the market will choose a direction. With the formation of the 7D OMO rate cut expectation, the 10Y Treasury bond yield will shift downward. Recently, the 10Y Treasury bond yield has been slightly lower than 1.80% for three consecutive trading days [1][8] 2. Reasons for the Expected Rate Cut - CD interest rates are affected by both financial institutions and the central bank, and their long - term trend depends more on the central bank's attitude. Since the end of the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025, the interest rates of 3M, 6M, and 1Y AAA - rated CDs have decreased by 7.3bp, 7.8bp, and 9.5bp respectively compared to the high points in December 2025, indicating that the central bank may increase the counter - cyclical adjustment [2][10] - Recently, the internal and external factors restricting the rate cut have been significantly alleviated. The implementation of the policy mainly depends on the economic situation. The nominal GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year dropped from 4.8% in the third quarter to 4.5%, lower than 5.4% in the first quarter [3][12] 3. Other Notes - The spread between the 10Y Treasury bond and 7D OMO is currently less than 40bp, which is still at a relatively low level in history, with limited room for further compression [3][12] - The MLF balance at the end of February this year reached 7.25 trillion yuan, close to the historical high. When the MLF balance is high, the central bank usually cuts the reserve requirement ratio to release long - term liquidity [3][13]