Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins and notes by the People's Bank of China has sparked a nationwide exchange frenzy due to their auspicious symbolism and exquisite design, although there are complaints about the difficulty of obtaining them through official channels [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange and Demand - The exchange rate for the commemorative coins reached 87.30% and for the notes, it exceeded 90% in many areas as of January 26, indicating strong public interest [2]. - The demand is driven by the low face value of the coins and notes, which align with the cultural practices of gifting during the Spring Festival [2]. - The 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coin is the last in the second round of zodiac coins issued from 2015 to 2026, making it a crucial piece for collectors [2]. Group 2: Secondary Market and Pricing - In the secondary market, certain special serial numbers of the commemorative notes can sell for significantly higher prices, with some fetching up to 15,000 yuan due to their rarity [3]. - The pricing of these coins and notes is closely linked to the scarcity of their serial numbers, creating a complex pricing system influenced by speculators and traders [3]. - The phenomenon of "黄牛" (scalpers) and organized trading has contributed to inflated prices, with students actively participating in this market [4][5]. Group 3: Risks and Speculation - Many participants, including students, are engaging in speculative trading, which poses risks, especially for those with lower risk tolerance [6]. - Historical data suggests that the prices of zodiac commemorative coins and notes tend to rise initially but then stabilize or decline, indicating that they are not reliable short-term investment tools [6]. - Experts recommend that the focus should return to the cultural significance of these coins and notes rather than treating them as high-return investments, advocating for better regulation of the market to curb excessive speculation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the Year of the Horse commemorative coins and banknotes has generated significant interest, with secondary market prices showing substantial premiums compared to their original issuance prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The secondary market prices for a set of Year of the Horse commemorative banknotes range from 800 to 1000 yuan, reflecting a premium of 100% to 150% over the original price of 400 yuan [1]. - The current buyback prices for the commemorative coins are 14 yuan each, while the ordinary commemorative banknotes are being bought back at 35 yuan each. Special banknotes without the numbers "4" and "7" are priced at 50 to 60 yuan each, indicating a premium of 150% to 200% [3]. Group 2: Cultural Significance - The Year of the Horse commemorative coin is seen as a concluding piece in the second round of zodiac commemorative coins, appealing to collectors who wish to complete their sets. The horse symbolizes auspiciousness and progress in Chinese culture, enhancing public interest in collection and gifting [4]. - The 2014 Year of the Horse commemorative coin, which had a face value of 1 yuan, is currently priced at 5 yuan each in the secondary market, with a total roll of 50 coins priced at 260 yuan, reflecting a premium of approximately 400% [4][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The observed premium phenomenon is attributed to a combination of short-term speculation and structural scarcity. Historically, zodiac commemorative coins and banknotes tend to experience significant premiums shortly after issuance due to tight supply and market demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 Dragon banknote has become the first zodiac commemorative banknote in mainland China, generating unprecedented demand due to its limited issuance and cultural significance [2][44]. Group 1: 2026 Year of the Horse Commemorative Banknote - The 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative banknote is the third in the zodiac series and is expected to create strong demand due to its cultural significance and the combination with the Dragon banknote, symbolizing "Dragon and Horse Spirit" [2][44]. - Despite the lack of official details, the anticipation for the Horse banknote is already high among collectors and enthusiasts [4][6]. - The Horse banknote is expected to have a face value of 20 yuan and a limited issuance similar to previous zodiac banknotes, likely around 100 million [38][42]. Group 2: Commemorative Coins - The 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coin is the last in the second round of zodiac coins, known as the "closing coin," which typically garners significant interest from collectors [7][48]. - The expected issuance of the Horse coin is projected to be between 80 million and 100 million, making it highly sought after [41][49]. Group 3: Purple Forbidden City Cultural Products - The "Horse Leap Purple Forbidden City" collection combines the cultural elements of the Forbidden City with the Year of the Horse, offering a comprehensive collection of zodiac-related items without the hassle of queuing or reservation [11][13]. - The collection includes various items such as the Horse banknote, commemorative coins, special stamps, and unique cultural products, enhancing its appeal for collectors [21][23][24]. - The collection is limited to 5,000 sets and is currently in the pre-sale stage, emphasizing its exclusivity and potential for appreciation [35]. Group 4: Special Stamps - The 2026 Year of the Horse special stamps have been designed through a public submission process, showcasing community involvement and creativity [56][58]. - The stamps feature traditional Chinese motifs and are expected to be highly collectible, especially given the unique design elements that may increase their value [67][70]. - The collection includes a rare joint issue of stamps from mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, further enhancing its collectible value [75][80].