Core Viewpoint - The release of the Year of the Horse commemorative coins and banknotes has generated significant interest, with secondary market prices showing substantial premiums compared to their original issuance prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The secondary market prices for a set of Year of the Horse commemorative banknotes range from 800 to 1000 yuan, reflecting a premium of 100% to 150% over the original price of 400 yuan [1]. - The current buyback prices for the commemorative coins are 14 yuan each, while the ordinary commemorative banknotes are being bought back at 35 yuan each. Special banknotes without the numbers "4" and "7" are priced at 50 to 60 yuan each, indicating a premium of 150% to 200% [3]. Group 2: Cultural Significance - The Year of the Horse commemorative coin is seen as a concluding piece in the second round of zodiac commemorative coins, appealing to collectors who wish to complete their sets. The horse symbolizes auspiciousness and progress in Chinese culture, enhancing public interest in collection and gifting [4]. - The 2014 Year of the Horse commemorative coin, which had a face value of 1 yuan, is currently priced at 5 yuan each in the secondary market, with a total roll of 50 coins priced at 260 yuan, reflecting a premium of approximately 400% [4][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The observed premium phenomenon is attributed to a combination of short-term speculation and structural scarcity. Historically, zodiac commemorative coins and banknotes tend to experience significant premiums shortly after issuance due to tight supply and market demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The reservation for the 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins and banknotes opened on January 13, 2026, leading to significant public interest and online discussions about the difficulty of securing these items [1]. Group 1: Reservation Experience - The 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins sold out within one minute of the reservation opening, with users reporting issues such as network errors and system overloads on banking apps [2][5]. - Many users, including a participant named Li, experienced difficulties accessing the reservation page, with some resorting to multiple devices to secure their reservations [5]. - A user from Guangzhou noted that their family has struggled to secure commemorative coins in previous years, highlighting the recurring issues of app crashes and delays during the reservation process [8]. Group 2: Bank Responses - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank (CCB), and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), acknowledged the high demand for the commemorative coins and noted that system congestion is common during such events [9]. - CCB stated that there were no system failures reported during the reservation period, while ICBC mentioned that any unclaimed reservations might be released later for others to claim [9]. Group 3: Commemorative Coin Details - The 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coin set includes a 10 yuan copper alloy coin, a 20 yuan banknote, a gold coin, and a silver coin, with a total issuance of 100 million units for both the coin and banknote [10]. - The pricing for a complete set of 20 coins and 20 banknotes is set at 600 yuan, while secondary market prices range from 1,000 to 1,200 yuan, indicating a premium of 40% to 60% over the original price [13]. Group 4: Market Analysis - The current premium on the commemorative coins reflects both short-term speculation and structural scarcity, with historical trends suggesting that prices may stabilize over time [17]. - The cultural significance of the "Horse" in Chinese tradition enhances the appeal of these coins, driving demand among collectors and gift-givers [17].