23中航产融MTN001

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信用热点聚焦系列之十:中航产融相关影响预判
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 05:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Currently, the valuation fluctuations of AVIC Industry Finance reflect liquidity risks rather than credit risks. Given the low short - term actual default risk, there are opportunities to trade at high valuations [1][2][11]. - The yield under this phased shock is approaching its peak, and it has allocation value for proprietary accounts with stable liability ends and allocation accounts with few restrictions [3][14]. - As bonds gradually mature and are redeemed, market concerns will subside, and bond prices will gradually return to normal [2][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 AVIC Industry Finance Bond Trading Situation before and after Resumption - On April 23, 2025, AVIC Industry Finance issued a bond resumption announcement. The matter of off - exchange redemption of the company's bonds failed to pass the vote of the bondholders' meeting, and the relevant bonds resumed trading on April 24 [1][10]. - In the past week, the overall trading prices were mainly at a discount, with short - term varieties within 2 years being the main trading terms. Longer - term bonds declined more, and bonds within one year had relatively small fluctuations. On the first day of resumption on April 24, the average deviation from the valuation was 195bp; on the 25th, it was 77bp, and the deviation amplitude converged; on the 28th, the trading volume was 2.4 times that of the previous trading day, and the average deviation from the valuation rebounded to 107bp [2][10][13]. - Taking "22 Industry Finance 02" as an example, from April 14 to April 23, the bond valuation showed a slight upward trend. On the first day of resumption on April 24, the valuation increased significantly by 208bp, and it has been relatively stable in the past three trading days [2][11]. - AVIC Industry Finance has the credit endorsement of AVIC Group. With the high - level control of central - enterprise bond default risks and the support of the central - enterprise credit guarantee fund, and the company's positive attitude towards debt repayment, the default risk is likely to be controllable [11]. 3.2 Market Fluctuation Observation of Other Similar Companies - The total outstanding bond scale of the parent companies of trust - holding companies is 8.93 trillion yuan. After excluding several large state - owned and joint - stock commercial banks with high outstanding bond scales, the remaining balance is 1.43 trillion yuan [4][20]. - From March 31 to April 27, 2025, after the AVIC Industry Finance incident, the bond spreads of Minmetals Capital (Minmetals Trust) widened significantly. However, due to the strong individual specificity of the AVIC Trust issue, the valuation fluctuation risk of Minmetals Capital is controllable, and it is expected that there will be no actual credit risk disturbance [4][20].