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Marvell Technology Plunges 17% in a Year: Hold or Fold the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-05-08 14:35
Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology, Inc. has experienced significant stock volatility, losing 17.3% over the past year, which is a stark contrast to the 11.5% growth in the Zacks Electronics - Semiconductors industry [1][4]. Market Performance - The decline in Marvell's stock price is attributed to broader market weaknesses, including a sell-off in tech stocks due to rising trade tensions, particularly concerning the U.S. government's actions towards China [4][5]. - Approximately 43% of Marvell's total revenues for fiscal 2025 are generated from the Chinese market, making geopolitical tensions a significant concern for the company [4][5]. Growth Opportunities - Marvell is benefiting from the increasing demand for custom silicon in AI workloads, with AI-based revenues exceeding the $1.5 billion target in fiscal 2025 and expectations to surpass $2.5 billion in fiscal 2026 [6][10]. - The company is positioned as a leader in high-performance computing, supported by collaborations with major hyperscalers, which are expected to drive revenue growth from custom XPU solutions in fiscal 2027 and beyond [7][10]. Technological Advancements - Marvell is capitalizing on the shift towards enhanced networking and interconnect products in data centers, introducing high-speed optical interconnects that reduce power usage by 20% [8][9]. - The transition from copper to optical connectivity in AI infrastructure presents a substantial growth opportunity, with Marvell's Co-Packaged Optics technology and 2nm silicon IP development reinforcing its market position [9]. Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Marvell's 2026 revenues is projected at $8.3 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 43.8%, with earnings expected to reach $2.76 per share, reflecting a 75.8% increase [10]. - Marvell has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.3% [10]. Strategic Collaborations - Marvell has established partnerships with industry leaders like NVIDIA, Juniper Networks, and Coherent Corp. to develop high-speed networking technology tailored for AI workloads [11][12][13]. - These collaborations aim to integrate Marvell's optical interconnect solutions with NVIDIA's AI technology and create networking solutions that support AI, cloud, and 5G applications [12][13]. Valuation - The recent drop in stock price has resulted in a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 5.59X, significantly lower than its one-year median of 10.16X and the industry average of 6.81X, making it an attractive investment option [14]. Conclusion - Despite facing near-term challenges, Marvell's strong fundamentals and position in the data center and high-speed networking market suggest that the stock remains a viable hold for investors [17][18].
Micron vs. Marvell: Which Semiconductor Stock Should You Consider Now?
ZACKS· 2025-04-07 20:00
Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology and Marvell Technology are both positioned to benefit from the AI infrastructure boom, but they operate in different segments of the semiconductor market, with Micron focusing on memory technologies and Marvell on custom silicon and data center connectivity [1][2]. Group 1: Micron Technology - Micron is experiencing strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM products due to the surge in AI workloads, with its HBM3E products noted for their power efficiency and bandwidth [3]. - In January 2025, NVIDIA announced Micron as a key supplier for its GeForce RTX 50 Blackwell GPUs, reinforcing Micron's role in the HBM market [4]. - Micron's second quarter of fiscal 2025 saw a decline in non-GAAP gross margin to 37.9%, down from 39.5% in the previous quarter, attributed to weaker NAND flash pricing and startup costs at a new DRAM facility [5]. - For the third quarter, Micron guided a gross margin of 36.5%, indicating ongoing margin pressures despite record sales in its HBM segment [6]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Micron's 2025 sales and EPS suggests year-over-year growth of 41.9% and 426.9%, respectively, but EPS estimates have been volatile over the past 60 days [16]. Group 2: Marvell Technology - Marvell is capitalizing on the increasing demand for custom silicon from hyperscalers, exceeding its fiscal 2025 AI revenue target of $1.5 billion and expecting to surpass $2.5 billion in fiscal 2026 [7]. - The company reported a 27% year-over-year increase in total revenues and a 30% rise in non-GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 [8]. - Marvell's non-GAAP gross margin has remained above 60% for several years, with a forecast of 60% for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, indicating strong operational efficiency [11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Marvell's 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 43.8% and 75.8%, respectively, with consistent upward revisions over the past 60 days [20]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Micron shares have decreased by 47.4%, compared to a 31.3% decline in Marvell shares [13]. - Micron is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 1.71X, significantly below its three-year median of 3.22X, while Marvell's forward sales multiple is at 4.99X, lower than its median of 8.20X [14]. - Marvell's premium valuation reflects high growth expectations and robust profitability, while Micron's declining profitability raises concerns about its ability to leverage the AI market [15].