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从周六福看黄金珠宝头部品牌发展趋势:加盟高效扩张后,挖掘品牌新增长
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-08 12:52
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the jewelry industry, particularly for gold jewelry, with a projected market size of CNY 7,280 billion in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% from 2019 to 2024, expected to increase to 5.2% from 2024 to 2029 [3][11]. Core Insights - The jewelry market is steadily expanding, with gold consumption leading the trend. By 2024, gold jewelry is expected to capture 73% of the market share, with franchise models accounting for 72% of industry expansion [3][11]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with the top five gold jewelry companies holding a market share of 58.5%. As competition intensifies, leading brands are shifting focus from expansion to quality enhancement [3][29]. - Zhou Liufu, a prominent jewelry brand, has rapidly expanded its franchise network, surpassing 4,000 stores nationwide by 2024, with revenue growth from CNY 3.1 billion in 2022 to CNY 5.72 billion in 2024, marking the highest CAGR among national jewelry companies [3][39]. - The brand is optimizing its store network and enhancing operational efficiency while focusing on product innovation to attract younger consumers [3][40]. Industry Analysis - The jewelry market is entering a phase of steady growth, driven by increasing consumer self-satisfaction and the rise of online shopping. The market is expected to reach CNY 9,370 billion by 2029 [11][12]. - Gold jewelry dominates the market, with a projected market share of 73% in 2024. However, gold consumption volume is expected to decline from 676.2 tons in 2019 to 532.0 tons in 2024 due to various market factors [11][12]. - The franchise model is the primary sales channel, accounting for 72.3% of the market share, while online sales are growing at a CAGR of 16.8% from 2019 to 2024 [25][20]. Company Overview - Zhou Liufu is a well-known jewelry brand in China, established in 2004, and has positioned itself as a leader in the national trend of jewelry [39][40]. - The company has a diverse product line, utilizing advanced technologies such as 5G and 3D gold to enhance product uniqueness and appeal to younger consumers [40][88]. - The management team is experienced and attuned to the preferences of younger consumers, which aids in strategic decision-making [46][47]. Financial Analysis - Zhou Liufu's revenue growth outpaces the industry average, with a rise from CNY 3.1 billion in 2022 to CNY 5.72 billion in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 10.8% for net profit during the same period [50][51]. - The contribution of gold jewelry to revenue is increasing, with online sales growing at a CAGR of 46.1%, significantly higher than the overall revenue growth [59][60]. - The company's gross margin has stabilized after a decline, with a focus on cost control and operational efficiency [62][63]. Competitive Factors - The franchise model is driving rapid expansion, with a significant number of franchise stores contributing to revenue [76][77]. - Zhou Liufu's product offerings are diverse, catering to various consumer needs and preferences, with a focus on cultural elements and modern trends [88][89]. - The company is enhancing its supply chain management capabilities to ensure quality and responsiveness to market demands [89].