证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 10 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 四部门鼓励每年最多开展四次春秋游，支持发放文旅消费券、 电影券；毛戈平与 LVMH 旗下基金达成战略合作 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2026.1.5-2026.1.9） 投资要点： 风险提示：零售环境修复不及预期风险；国际局势变动风险；市场竞争加剧风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 近日全国总工会、文化和旅游部、国家电影局、国家体育总局联合印发《关于深入推进新时 代职工文体工作高质量发展 扩大职工文体消费的意见》，旨在系统推进职工文体工作，释放 消费潜力，满足广大职工日益增长的精神文化需求。《意见》的重点内容涵盖：1）创新职工 文体活动场景：拓展夜间、户外、社交、亲子等新型职工文体活动，鼓励利用商圈、工业遗 址、公园绿地、红色教育基地、电影放映场所等特色空间，开展沉浸式、互动式文化体验活 动；2）优化职工文体消费环境：鼓励提高工会经费中职工文体活动支出比例 ...

变量的发生是因为老铺摆脱了传统奢侈品故事的束缚，创造全新需求。此前，花旗银行就曾指出老铺之 所以成功，并不是它试图成为"下一个卡地亚"。在Jing Daily看来，复兴技艺、传承文化、打造有文化 归属的奢侈品体验，是老铺成为市场定义者的关键。 Jing Daily认为，老铺黄金的故事，并非单纯的商业崛起，而是一场关于文化主权与奢侈定义的深刻叙 事。它以自身实践重写了东方奢侈规则，让中国品牌首次站在全球奢侈品舞台上。 作为第一个将"古法黄金"带向市场的品牌，老铺黄金完成了从"技艺复兴者"到"市场引领者"的跨越。 2019 年，品牌首创的"足金镶嵌钻石"技术，打破了"唯 K 金可镶钻"的行业规则，使足金与钻石实现质 感与光芒的完美融合。2021 年，"足金珐琅"工艺则进一步突破黄金色彩单一的局限，实现美学上的关 键飞跃，作品更富国际感和当代感。老铺黄金不仅是技艺的传承者，更是通过创新，将非遗文化系统性 转译为当代时尚语言。 （文章为作者独立观点，不代表艾瑞网立场） 导语：来自中国的老铺黄金用中国经典文化、传世工艺、极致审美和可以穿越时间周期的产品，重构全 新的价值消费体系。 在老铺黄金的产品体系中，象征坚固与智慧 ...

深圳商报·读创客户端记者 胡星访 文/图 老铺黄金的消费者与五大奢侈品牌的消费者平均重合率高达77.3% 值得关注的是，就在不久前三家资本方同时注资了另一家靠古法手工起家的黄金品牌"宝兰"。天眼查信 息显示，宝兰黄金的主体公司是杭州宝兰黄金文化发展有限公司，品牌以"花丝镶嵌"等非遗传统古法手 工艺为核心卖点。 全球奢侈品巨头开云集团的加入，被业界视为国际奢侈品牌首次对中国本土高端黄金市场的高度关注与 试水。而雷军系顺为资本跨界入局古法金赛道，显然是对新兴高端消费市场的敏锐洞察和向往。 商业模式被复制 近日，古法黄金品牌宝兰获过亿元A轮融资。挑战者创投，开云集团，顺为资本是其背后投资方。同一 时期，另一家古法黄金品牌"琳朝珠宝"也获日初资本亿元级战投。资本的密集注入，正式拉开古法黄金 赛道资本博弈的序幕。而曾经靠"工艺+品牌稀缺性"独占鳌头的古法黄金引领者"老铺黄金"，未来也将 面临更多竞争和挑战。 资本正加快进场 一份来自弗若斯特沙利文的数据显示，中国古法黄金市场规模从2018年的130亿元增长至2023年的1573 亿元，复合年增长率达64.6%，预计到2028年市场规模将达到4214亿元，古法黄金市场远未 ...

一、金价回调并非反转 2026年1月2日， 国内黄金市场延续回调态势，人民币计价黄金与中国黄金实物金价同步走低， 国际市场上，伦敦现货黄金回落至每盎司4318美元，美黄金报4326美元，较此前高位小幅下行，受外盘影响，国内金价同步走弱，实时金价降至967.4元/ 克，黄金回收价格回落至955元/克。 老凤祥的黄金报价为每克1360元，较之前一天降低了6元。 上海黄金交易所，今日现货黄金价格：1克黄金=974.39元人民币注（100元人民币=0.10263克黄金）。 老庙黄金的价格每克1351元，相比昨日下跌了11元。 投资端呈现出完全不同的定价逻辑，商业银行及机构金条报价普遍低于零售金饰，高于交易所现货价格，区间大致在995元至1035元/克之间，上海黄金交易 所标准金条价格约为980元/克，更贴近黄金的"原始定价"。 这一轮下跌更像是情绪修正，非趋势反转，随着全球经济复苏预期增强，资金短期内更倾向于风险资产，黄金的避险需求阶段性降温。 零售端反应相对温和，周大福、六福珠宝、老凤祥、周生生等品牌金饰克价回落至1350元上下，单日下调幅度多在6—11元之间，并未出现集中抛售或价格 踩踏。 二、黄金属性进一步分化 ...

Market Overview - The gold market experienced a significant transformation in 2025, with prices soaring from around $2,600 to nearly $4,600 per ounce, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis, with a rise exceeding 70% [1][3] - London spot gold recorded an annual increase of over 60%, achieving its strongest performance in 46 years [1] Price Dynamics - The year began with gold prices fluctuating between $2,600 and $3,000 per ounce, but by March, it broke the $3,000 mark [3] - In September, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, gold saw its highest monthly increase of 11.92% [3] - By October, gold prices surpassed $4,000, and by December 26, it reached a historic high of $4,549.96 per ounce [3] Precious Metals Sector - The entire precious metals sector saw a correlated rise, with silver prices increasing nearly 150% and platinum reaching a historic high above $2,300 per ounce [4] - The traditional pricing logic of gold being strong when the dollar is weak has shifted, with a new multi-faceted market structure emerging [4] Central Bank Behavior - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from over 70% to around 58% has prompted central banks to diversify their reserves, significantly increasing gold holdings [4] - As of November, China's central bank held 7.412 million ounces of gold, marking a continuous increase for 13 months [4] Industry Impact - The surge in gold prices has led to significant stock price increases for gold-related companies, with some stocks like Zhaojin Gold rising by 228.97% [6] - Major mining companies are accelerating global acquisitions, with Zijin Mining planning to invest $1.2 billion in a large gold mine in Kazakhstan [6] Investment Trends - Investment strategies are shifting from traditional gold bars to gold ETFs and online investment products, with global physical gold ETF inflows reaching $5.2 billion in November [6] - The Chinese market led the inflows, contributing $2.2 billion [6] Consumer Behavior - High gold prices have reshaped consumer markets, with a notable resurgence in "gold crafting" businesses [7] - Retail trends indicate a preference for smaller, high-quality gold items, with companies like Laopuhuangjin seeing stock price increases of 156.22% [9] Market Speculation - Discussions around a potential "gold bubble" have emerged, with analysts noting that gold prices have exceeded long-term forecasts [10] - The market dynamics have shifted beyond traditional interest rate frameworks, focusing on a deeper reassessment of the monetary credit system [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of traditional gold brands in China, particularly focusing on Laopu Gold, which has successfully entered the high-end luxury market, achieving a market valuation in the hundreds of billions [2][7][10]. Market Performance - Laopu Gold has seen significant growth, with revenue exceeding 123.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 251% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 22.7 billion yuan, up 286% [6]. - The brand's market share in the high-end jewelry segment has surged from 10% in 2023 to 26% in 2024, while traditional luxury brands like Tiffany and Cartier have experienced declines [7]. Consumer Behavior - Laopu Gold has attracted a growing customer base, with membership increasing to 480,000 by mid-2025, up from 36,000 in 2021 [6]. - The brand's clientele overlaps significantly with consumers of luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton and Hermès, with a 77.3% overlap rate [6]. Retail Expansion - Laopu Gold has expanded its retail presence, opening five new stores in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to 41 locations in high-end shopping centers [10]. - Other brands in the traditional gold sector, such as Lin Chao and Bao Lan, are also expanding, indicating a trend towards increased competition in the luxury gold market [8][10]. Investment Trends - The success of Laopu Gold has sparked interest from investors, with Lin Chao and Bao Lan securing significant funding in late 2025 [8]. - Laopu Gold's stock performance has been remarkable, with its share price increasing over 2500% since its IPO, reflecting strong market confidence [9]. Brand Positioning - Despite its success, Laopu Gold is still perceived as not fully reaching the status of a luxury brand, lacking the emotional value and pricing power associated with established luxury brands like Hermès [11]. - The brand's gross margin is around 40%, significantly lower than the 70-80% margins of top luxury brands, indicating room for improvement in brand positioning and pricing strategy [11]. Future Outlook - The traditional gold jewelry market in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of approximately 421.4 billion yuan by 2028, indicating a robust future for brands like Laopu Gold [13]. - The challenge remains for these brands to transition from high-quality gold products to luxury items with cultural significance, requiring a focus on brand development and consumer loyalty [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable rise of Laopu Gold, which is set to surpass Richemont's jewelry business in revenue by 2025, marking a significant shift in the luxury goods market in China and challenging the dominance of Western luxury brands [5][8][24]. Group 1: Market Impact - Laopu Gold has created a phenomenon in the Chinese luxury market, drawing attention from major Western luxury brands and prompting them to reassess their strategies [8][12]. - The brand's success is attributed to its deep cultural roots and innovative approach, which resonate with modern Chinese consumers, particularly those with high cultural literacy and digital nativity [12][19]. - Laopu Gold's stores have achieved impressive sales figures, with estimates suggesting that a single store in Beijing SKP generates around 3 billion yuan annually, accounting for approximately 1/7 of the mall's total sales [17]. Group 2: Competitive Positioning - Laopu Gold's store performance is significantly ahead of its competitors, with estimated sales per store being twice that of Cartier and three times that of Van Cleef & Arpels [13]. - The brand has established a strong presence in high-end shopping centers across major Chinese cities, achieving full coverage of the top ten luxury malls in China, which positions it directly against global luxury brands [16][24]. - The brand's innovative use of traditional craftsmanship, such as "gold inlaid with diamonds" and "gold enamel," has set it apart in the luxury market, creating a unique product offering that appeals to consumers [21][22]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - Laopu Gold represents a successful marketization of Chinese culture, demonstrating the market penetration power of traditional aesthetics and craftsmanship [19][26]. - The brand has shifted consumer perceptions, moving away from the over-reliance on Western luxury symbols and narratives, and instead emphasizing authentic cultural values and craftsmanship [19][24]. - The rise of Laopu Gold signals the beginning of a new era for Chinese high-end brands, encouraging the emergence of more local brands that can compete on a global scale [27].

人民财讯12月23日电，在今日由证券时报举办的"攻守之道：新消费高波动背后的定价逻辑重构"沙龙 上，景顺长城研究部基金经理张欢指出，2026年新消费投资或将往"两端"迁移：一是市场需求刚起步、 尚处于早期阶段的品类，包括新功效成分的保健品和口服养生品、医美创新材料、宠物保健品等；其次 是供给释放相对有序，甚至有望出清，供需相对平衡的品类，包括功能性饮料、低糖健康食饮、古法黄 金，以及零食量贩和高端美容服务(中小企业出清)等，其中优选成长确定性高的单品牌或平台型公司。 ...

12月22日，港股新消费板块午后走强。据大智慧VIP显示，截至当日收盘，蜜雪集团（02097.HK）涨近 10%，老铺黄金（6181.HK）涨超6%，泡泡玛特（9992.HK）涨3.68%。 A股消费股方面，免税店、百货股大涨，其中海汽集团（603069.SH）、中国中免（601888.SH）、东百 集团（600693.SH）涨停；王府井（600859.SH）与百大集团（600865.SH）涨超5%；珠免集团 （600185.SH）涨4.78%，上海九百（600838.SH）涨3.7%。 政策和行业消息面上，12月20日，商务部党组扩大会议在京召开。会议强调，大力提振消费，扩大优质 商品和服务供给，释放服务消费潜力。 海南封关后对海南当地免税消费直接形成拉动。据三亚日报报道，12月18日，海南自由贸易港全岛封关 运作正式启动。封关首日，三亚免税市场展现出强劲活力，政策红利加速释放，为海南自贸港注入新动 能。当天，三亚免税销售成绩亮眼。据三亚市商务局统计，全市免税销售额达1.18亿元。其中，三亚国 际免税城进店客流超3.6万人次，同比增长逾60%；销售额同比增长85%，直观体现了封关政策对消费市 场的强劲带动效 ...

受访人士表示，在盈利和业绩驱动下，2026年中国股市仍有较好的机会，A股与港股有望保持上行态势，风格上成长与价值将趋于均衡； 看好AI产业链，以及周期、消费和制造业的投资机会。 2025年结构性行情超出预期 中国基金报：2025年的市场与年初预期有哪些不同？ 童驯： 今年A股市场呈现显著的结构性行情，科创板、创业板及主板表现均超出年初时的预期。行业分化特征鲜明，有色金属、通信、电 子等板块表现亮眼。核心驱动源于双重逻辑：一是供求关系收紧叠加美联储降息周期开启，贵金属（金、银）、小金属（钨、锑、钴）及 工业金属（铜、铝）价格大幅上涨，直接推动有色金属板块估值与业绩双升；二是AI产业技术进展持续超预期，光模块等核心环节企业盈利 预测不断上修，带动产业链股价稳步走高，成为全年市场核心主线之一。 【导读】 六大私募把脉2026：股市仍有较好机会，成长与价值风格趋于均衡 【编者按】2025年接近尾声，中国基金报推出"2025年终报道"，梳理总结2025年公募基金、券商行业、热门产业发展变化和大事件，展 望2026年股市机会和基金行业发展前景，以飨读者。 中国基金报 私募报道组 2025年，市场超预期回暖，A股、港股结构 ...