如果说踏空泡泡玛特还可以归咎为"代沟"，那么大量踏空更像"奢侈品"的老铺黄金，看上去更像是方法论出了问题。 本文约 3 3 0 0 字，推荐阅读时长 1 0 分钟，欢迎关注新财富公众号。 许多资深Commodity投资者， 特别是经历过2008年金市崩盘的，大多错过了老铺黄金前期的上涨行情。 段永平3月12日在雪球回复对老铺的看法时讲"餐厅毛利率普遍很高，但纯利率普遍很低。黄金生意我搞不懂大街上到处都是金铺，跟餐厅差不多。"很多 人和大道的看法一样。年初看空老铺、抄底白酒是更多人的选择。 回看半年前的主流short观点，主要是两方面： 1）一方面认知到黄金是老铺β的投资人，他们对于金价出现了错误判断; 2）另一方面未认知到黄金是老铺β的投资人，他们无法理解老铺破圈的原因。一是他们对于黄金能够成为珠宝是持底层质疑的，他们认为黄金作为饰品 售出非金价的溢价是不可持续的;二是在中国，对于门店数量天花显而易见的商业模式（老铺奢侈品打法的门店选址门槛很高），从业时间较长的PM会 保持高度谨慎，他们认为SSSG的持续增长在中国的商业模式中几乎不存在。 市场会给出最真实的答案，从资本市场100倍的PE水平和媒体舆论时常将其 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 港股周一，三大指数继续大涨，恒生指数涨 1.94%，国企指数涨 1.85%，恒生 科技指数涨 3.14%。大市成交 3,696.98 亿元，主板总卖空金额升至 549.19 亿 元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率回落至 16.152%。 南向资金流（北水）反复转弱，港股通净流出金额-13.76 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、中兴通讯 763.HK、 东方甄选 1797.HK；净卖出最多的是盈富基金 2800.HK、小米集团-W 1810.HK、 中芯国际 981.HK。北向资金方面，8 月 25 日北向资金共成交 4045.44 亿元， 占两市总成交额的 12.88%。药明康德 603259.SH、海光信息 688041.SH、寒 武纪 688256.SH 位列沪股通成交前三，成交额分别为 37.46 亿、31.28 亿、 29.44 亿；东方财富 300059.SZ、宁德时代 300750.SZ、中际旭创 300308.SZ 位列深股通成交前三，成交额分别为 35.32 亿、32.22 亿、28.36 亿。 港股市场全面 ...

老铺黄金的创始人徐高明，曾在业绩会上这么说：老铺黄金已经摆脱了跟国际金价的关联性，摆脱了对黄金本身材质价值产生溢价的依赖。 这一反市场逻辑的品牌定位反而造就了当前的老铺黄金，带着"古法黄金"突围传统金饰，试图用中式奢侈品重新定义以保值逻辑为核心的黄金行业。 从目前的动作看，老铺黄金管理层似乎确信这是一套可行且必然成功的商业模式，将经营所得、融资款项几乎全部投入存货和门店扩张，在保值逻辑的金价 市场中坚持一口价、定期调价模式，也不对冲黄金风险，在业务扩张期坚持每年两次分红百分之五十未分配利润。 这一扩张逻辑形成了"越赚钱、越缺钱"的财务现象——2025年上半年取得123.55亿元营业收入，经营性现金流却净流出22.15亿元。 老铺黄金的融资能力并不差，在资本市场上股票一年涨超20多倍，市盈率虽从百倍降回目前约80倍，但仍远高于同行企业，据管理层称"各大银行信用授信 额度尚有接近80%未使用"，然而，这些融资空间的收缩都取决于未来业绩走向。 当老铺黄金对未来加上更高的杠杆，也意味着它将背负上更重的业绩压力。 多数收入和融资款项投入新一轮扩张 2025上半年，老铺黄金新增18.1亿元银行贷款，配发新股所得款项净额2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laopu Gold (06181.HK), has transformed its gold jewelry business into a luxury brand, achieving remarkable growth in its operating performance, with significant increases in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 compared to previous periods [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Laopu Gold reported revenue of 12.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 250.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.76% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 2.351 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 290.6% [3]. - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 3.521 billion yuan and 588 million yuan, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of about 148.30% and 198.75% [3][4]. Market Position and Strategy - Laopu Gold's performance has accelerated compared to the same period in 2024, driven by expanding brand influence and significant sales growth across both online and offline channels [2][4]. - The company has opened 41 self-operated stores in 16 cities, achieving an average store efficiency of 459 million yuan, surpassing global luxury giants [2][12]. - Laopu Gold's online sales reached 1.943 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a notable performance during the Tmall "618" event, where it topped the gold category with sales exceeding 1 billion yuan [7][8]. Unique Selling Proposition - The company is recognized as the first brand in China to promote the "ancient method gold" concept and has introduced unique products such as "gold inlaid diamonds" and "golden body blue burning," setting industry trends [10]. - Laopu Gold's products are characterized by high processing costs due to the use of traditional craftsmanship, which is a significant competitive advantage [11]. Membership and Customer Base - The number of loyal members has rapidly increased, with 130,000 new members added in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to 480,000 [12]. - The overlap in consumer demographics with luxury brands like Louis Vuitton and Hermès is approximately 77.3%, indicating a strong positioning in the high-end market [12]. Profitability Metrics - Laopu Gold's gross margin and net margin are leading in the industry, with gross margins exceeding 40% from 2021 to 2024, and net margins showing an upward trend [12]. - In contrast, competitors like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have gross margins below 30% and net margins below 10% [12]. Dividend Policy - For the first half of 2025, Laopu Gold plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.656 billion yuan, representing 73.03% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, a significant increase compared to the previous year when no dividends were issued [13].

Group 1: Deep Sea Technology Industry - The government has positioned deep sea technology as a strategic emerging industry, alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, highlighting its importance for national security and resource safety [6][7] - The deep sea sector is crucial for ensuring resource security, as the global underwater resource competition intensifies, particularly with the U.S. and Japan accelerating their deep-sea mining efforts [7] - The blue economy in China reached a production value of 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating significant market potential for growth in related sub-industries [8] - The deep sea technology industry chain spans from basic materials to high-end equipment manufacturing, with a focus on "deep sensing" capabilities as a foundational infrastructure for development [8] Group 2: New Consumption - Crystal International - Crystal International reported a revenue of 1.229 billion USD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.42%, and a net profit of 98 million USD, reflecting strong operational resilience despite external challenges [11][12] - The company improved its gross profit margins in leisure and intimate apparel due to enhanced production efficiency, with gross margins reaching 20.50% and 20.80% respectively [12] - Crystal International's strategic advantages, including its FOB revenue structure and strong brand client pricing power, have helped mitigate the impact of tariffs [12][13] Group 3: New Consumption - Laopu Gold - Laopu Gold achieved a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in H1 2025, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 251%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, reflecting strong market positioning and brand influence [15][16] - The company expanded its offline presence with 41 self-operated stores across 16 cities, achieving an average sales performance of approximately 459 million yuan per store [17] - Laopu Gold's brand strength is validated by a high overlap rate with major luxury brands, and the company plans to adjust product prices to support profit performance [17][18] Group 4: North Exchange - Youji Co., Ltd. - Youji Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 443 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit of 34.3 million yuan, reflecting strong growth driven by capacity release and business expansion [19][20] - The company experienced significant revenue growth in the oil and gas sector, with a 19% increase, and a 48% increase in the aviation sector due to the integration of Beiyang Precision [20][21] - The mechanical parts processing industry is expected to benefit from global industrial upgrades and domestic demand expansion, positioning China as a key supplier in the global market [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Laopu Gold (老铺黄金) has shown remarkable growth, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, leading to a surge in stock price after the mid-term report release. However, the stock has experienced volatility and a significant decline from its peak, raising questions about its valuation and sustainability in the luxury market [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Laopu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 251%, and a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [2]. - The adjusted net profit reached 2.35 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 291% [2]. - Following the report, the stock price increased by 8.84%, closing at 782 HKD per share, halting a month-long selling trend [2]. Market Position and Valuation - As of August 20, Laopu Gold's market capitalization was 109 billion HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 78.03, significantly higher than its competitor Chow Tai Fook, which had a P/E of 24.11 [3]. - The brand's daily sales averaged 77.5 million yuan, showcasing its strong market presence despite a challenging consumer environment [4]. Competitive Advantage - Laopu Gold's unique selling proposition lies in its ancient gold craftsmanship, which commands a premium price, with a 55% markup compared to competitors [4]. - The market for ancient gold jewelry is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64.6% from 2018 to 2023, outpacing traditional gold jewelry [4][5]. Store Performance and Expansion - Laopu Gold operates 41 stores in 29 major commercial centers, achieving an average sales performance of 459 million yuan per store, significantly surpassing other jewelry brands [6]. - The brand's store in Beijing SKP generated 336 million yuan in revenue, indicating a sales efficiency more than double that of the shopping center's average [6]. Brand Strategy and Consumer Engagement - The company has successfully increased its loyal customer base, with 48,000 members contributing 68% of revenue, and a high repurchase rate of 60% [11]. - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of its luxury narrative, as some loyal customers have begun to shift to other brands due to slow product updates and perceived value [15]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - The stock price has faced significant declines, with a drop to 690 HKD per share, resulting in a market value loss of over 80 billion HKD since its peak [7]. - The company faces competition from both established and emerging brands in the ancient gold market, which may dilute its unique positioning [12]. Craftsmanship and Brand Identity - Laopu Gold claims to be the leading brand in ancient gold craftsmanship, leveraging traditional techniques that are recognized as part of China's intangible cultural heritage [8]. - The brand's reliance on outsourced production raises questions about its authenticity and ability to maintain a luxury image [12]. Future Outlook - The luxury positioning of Laopu Gold is under scrutiny, as it attempts to align itself with high-end brands like Hermes, but lacks the historical narrative and craftsmanship depth that define true luxury [17][18]. - The company's growth model, heavily reliant on a single product category, may face challenges as market dynamics evolve and competition intensifies [11][18].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laopu Gold, reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a generally weak domestic gold jewelry market [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Laopu Gold achieved revenue of 12.354 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 251.0% year-on-year [2][6]. - The net profit for the same period reached 2.268 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 285.8% [2]. - The company proposed an interim dividend of 9.59 RMB per share [2]. Group 2: Expansion Strategy - Laopu Gold accelerated its store expansion, opening 41 self-operated stores across 16 cities, including prestigious commercial centers [5][7]. - Offline stores contributed 86.9% of the total revenue, with same-store sales growth of approximately 200.8% compared to the same period in 2024 [5][6]. - Sales and distribution expenses increased significantly from 532 million RMB in the first half of 2024 to 1.464 billion RMB in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 175.2% [7]. Group 3: Pricing and Market Position - The company's gross margin decreased to 38.1% due to rising gold prices, prompting a second price increase scheduled for August 25 [8][10]. - Laopu Gold's unique "ancient gold" concept has maintained a gross margin above 40% historically, supported by its high craftsmanship and premium pricing strategy [9]. - The market for ancient gold is rapidly growing, with its size increasing from 13 billion RMB in 2018 to 157.3 billion RMB in 2023, and is projected to reach 421.4 billion RMB by 2028 [12].

盈利点评：产品品牌共振，盈利水平进一步提升。25H1 公司收入增长241%-255%，净利润增长 279%-288%。收入利润增长，我们认为得益于品牌、产品的共振，即：1）品牌影响力持续扩大，带来 了线上线下店铺的整体营收增长；2）产品持续优化、推新迭代，支持了线上线下营收的持续增长。此 外，我们按照盈利预告中收入和利润的中值计算，25H1 公司净利率为18.41%，较24H1 的16.7%和24H2 的17.75%进一步提升。 机构：中邮证券 研究员：李鑫鑫 事件 正面盈利：公司发布正面盈利预告，2025 年上半年公司销售业绩（含税收入）约人民币138-143 亿元， 同比增长240%-252%，收入约人民币120-125 亿元，同比增长241%-255%，经调净利润23-23.6 亿元，同 比增长282%-292%，净利润22.3-22.8 亿元，同比增长279%-288%。 开店：2025 年8 月2 日老铺黄金上海新天地店启幕，这是上海继豫园店、港汇恒隆、ifc 店之后的第四 家门店。 投资要点 门店开拓：门店开拓顺利，上海再下一子。截至24 年底公司在全球共有门店36 家，分布在包括中国香 港、中国 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" and it is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has released a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, with sales performance (including tax revenue) expected to be approximately RMB 138-143 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 240%-252%. The net profit is projected to be between RMB 22.3-22.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 279%-288% [4][5] - The company's revenue growth is attributed to the resonance of brand and product, with an expanding brand influence leading to overall revenue growth in both online and offline stores. Continuous product optimization and new iterations have also supported sustained revenue growth [5] - The company has successfully expanded its store network, with a new store opening in Shanghai on August 2, 2025, marking the fourth store in the city [4][5] Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 802.50, with a total market capitalization of HKD 1,385.73 billion. The company has a total share capital of 1.73 billion shares and an asset-liability ratio of 38.13% [3] - The company is positioned as a high-end brand focusing on "ancient method gold," aiming to establish itself as a global luxury jewelry brand [11] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 138% in 2025, with net profit growth projected at 179.54%. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 23.85 for 2025 [13][11] - The company has a projected net profit margin of 18.41% for the first half of 2025, an increase from 16.7% in the first half of 2024 [5] Industry Analysis - The report anticipates that gold prices will continue to rise, with expectations for London gold prices to exceed USD 3,500 in the medium term [6] - The company is leveraging Chinese cultural elements in its product design, with nearly 2,000 original designs and a significant number of patents and copyrights [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lao Pu Gold, is expected to report a significant revenue increase of 240%-252% year-on-year, reaching between 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase nearly threefold year-on-year, with an adjusted profit margin of 18.4% to 19.7%, up from 17.7% in 2024 [3]. - The company's stock price has surged over 14 times since its listing in June 2024, but has seen a decline of 30% from its peak of 1,108 HKD per share [5][6]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is nearly 80 times, significantly higher than competitors like Chow Tai Fook [7]. Group 2: Market Position and Brand Strategy - Lao Pu Gold is positioned between traditional jewelry brands and luxury brands, combining the intrinsic value of gold with the design and craftsmanship of jewelry [10][11]. - The brand has established a strong market presence, with a significant increase in loyal members, reaching 71.52% and 81.64% of total members in 2023 and 2024, respectively [12]. - The company is expanding its store network, with plans to add at least 9 new stores by the end of 2025, exceeding initial targets [19]. Group 3: Sales and Pricing Strategy - Same-store sales growth is projected to reach 121% in 2024, with nearly 10 billion yuan in sales from 36 stores [20]. - The company has a product premium rate of 60%-80%, significantly higher than the 10%-20% typical for ordinary jewelry brands [24]. - The company has maintained a gross margin above 40%, compared to around 20% for competitors [25]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces challenges with gold price fluctuations, which may impact consumer willingness to pay higher prices [29]. - The company has not employed hedging tools to mitigate gold price risks, exposing it to potential inventory impairment during price declines [30]. - The company is increasing its gold reserves to support store expansion, with inventory expected to rise from 1.268 billion yuan to 4.088 billion yuan by the end of 2024, a 222.4% increase year-on-year [35].