800G单模光模块
Search documents
应用光电(AAOI):与AWS合作有实质进展,静待光模块明年放量
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-11-10 11:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $42.2, indicating a potential upside of 47.7% from the current price of $28.57 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $119 million, which is within the guidance range of $115-127 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 81.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15% [3]. - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 2025 was 31%, showing a 0.6 percentage point increase quarter-over-quarter and a 6 percentage point increase year-over-year, primarily due to improvements in business structure [3]. - The data center business revenue was $44 million, experiencing a decline due to the impact of product delivery schedules on revenue recognition, with related revenue expected to be recognized in Q4 [3]. - The revenue guidance for Q4 2025 is set at $125-140 million, with a Non-GAAP gross margin expected to be between 29-31%, anticipating significant growth in the data center business driven by the mass production of 400G single-mode optical modules and large-scale sample shipments of 800G products [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review and Outlook - The company is actively expanding production capacity to meet surging customer demand, with North American cloud providers increasing capital expenditure focused on AI computing [4]. - It is projected that global shipments of 800G and 1.6T optical modules will exceed 45 million and 28 million units, respectively, by 2026 [4]. - By the end of 2025, the company aims to achieve a production capacity of 100,000 units per month for both 800G and 400G modules, with further expansion expected in 2026 [4]. Collaboration with AWS - The company has made substantial progress in its collaboration with AWS, having completed certification for its 400G single-mode optical modules, which are expected to see significant shipment increases in Q4 2025 [4]. - The 800G single-mode optical modules are nearing the final stage of customer validation, with expectations for large-scale orders for final testing and certification [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $447 million, $1.259 billion, and $1.803 billion, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be -$2 million, $192 million, and $350 million [5][6]. - The report anticipates a significant revenue and profit surge in 2026 due to the collaboration with AWS, assigning a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [5].