国泰海通发布研报称，美债利率中枢后续有望温和下行，但美联储新任主席人选不确定性上升而使得市 场加剧对美国货币政策的博弈，使得美债相对于风险资产的风险回报比偏低。特朗普政府施行霸权主 义，导致国际地缘政治局势进一步恶化，有利于黄金表现。建议战术性超配A/H股、美股、黄金，低配 美债与原油。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 多重因素支持中国权益表现，建议超配A/H股。 经济工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积 极。美联储12月如期降息，人民币稳定升值，为2026年初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。改革提振中国市 场风险偏好。中国权益相较于其他主要大类资产的风险回报比较高。 美联储新任主席人选不确定性上升而使得市场加剧对美国货币政策的博弈，建议低配美债。 美国劳动力市场持续降温，能源价格走弱与薪资增速偏缓有利于内生性通胀粘性下降，为美联储调整货 币政策拓宽空间。美国经济韧性较强，美联储货币政策指引方向或相对谨慎。美债利率中枢后续有望温 和下行，但美联储新任主席人选不确定性上升而使得市场加剧对美国货币政策的博弈，使得美债相对于 风险资产的风险回报比偏低。 地缘政治剧变背景下黄金具 ...

报告导读： 特朗普政府施行霸权主义，导致国际地缘政治局势进一步恶化，有利于黄金表 现。我们建议战术性超配 A/H 股、美股、黄金，低配美债与原油。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 特朗普扰动地缘政治局势，建议超配黄金；报告日期：2026.01.19 报告作者： 王子翌（分析师），登记编号：S0880523050004 方奕（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120005 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 多重因素支持中国权益表现， 建议超配 A/H 股 。 经济工作会议临近， 2026 年是十五五开局之年，预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积 极。美联储 12 月如期降息，人民币稳定升值，为 2026 年初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。 ...

来源：市场资讯 来源：一观大势 核心观点：特朗普政府施行霸权主义，导致国际地缘政治局势进一步恶化，有利于黄金表现。我们建议 战术性超配A/H股、美股、黄金，低配美债与原油。 摘要 ▶多重因素支持中国权益表现，建议超配A/H股。经济工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，预计 广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积极。美联储12月如期降息，人民币稳定升值，为2026年 初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。改革提振中国市场风险偏好。中国权益相较于其他主要大类资产的风险 回报比较高。 ▶美联储新任主席人选不确定性上升而使得市场加剧对美国货币政策的博弈，建议低配美债。美国劳动 力市场持续降温，能源价格走弱与薪资增速偏缓有利于内生性通胀粘性下降，为美联储调整货币政策拓 宽空间。美国经济韧性较强，美联储货币政策指引方向或相对谨慎。美债利率中枢后续有望温和下行， 但美联储新任主席人选不确定性上升而使得市场加剧对美国货币政策的博弈，使得美债相对于风险资产 的风险回报比偏低。 ▶地缘政治剧变背景下黄金具备较强韧性与避险属性，建议超配黄金。全球地缘政治局势的不确定性上 升以及各国央行持续购金有利于支撑长期金价中枢。虽然投机性交易资 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：特朗普政府施行霸权主义，导致国际地缘政治局势进一步恶化，有利于黄金表现。我们建议 战术性超配A/H股、美股、黄金，低配美债与原油。 摘要 ▶多重因素支持中国权益表现，建议超配A/H股。经济工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，预计 广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积极。美联储12月如期降息，人民币稳定升值，为2026年 初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。改革提振中国市场风险偏好。中国权益相较于其他主要大类资产的风险 回报比较高。 ▶美联储新任主席人选不确定性上升而使得市场加剧对美国货币政策的博弈，建议低配美债。美国劳动 力市场持续降温，能源价格走弱与薪资增速偏缓有利于内生性通胀粘性下降，为美联储调整货币政策拓 宽空间。美国经济韧性较强，美联储货币政策指引方向或相对谨慎。美债利率中枢后续有望温和下行， 但美联储新任主席人选不确定性上升而使得市场加剧对美国货币政策的博弈，使得美债相对于风险资产 的风险回报比偏低。 ▶地缘政治剧变背景下黄金具备较强韧性与避险属性，建议超配黄金。全球地缘政治局势的不确定性上 升以 ...

Group 1 - The global market risk appetite continues to rise, benefiting equity assets. Tactical recommendations include overweighting A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while underweighting US Treasuries and oil [1][23]. - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight in A/H shares. The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to further expansion of the broad deficit and more proactive economic policies. The Federal Reserve's expected rate cut in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026 [2][10][11]. - The "Goldilocks" scenario is emerging, which is favorable for US stock performance. The resilience of the US economy, decreasing inflationary pressures, and ongoing investor focus on AI trends are expected to support a moderate increase in market risk appetite and corporate earnings expectations [2][10][11]. Group 2 - Gold is recommended for overweighting due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes amid rising geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases. Despite increased volatility from speculative trading, gold prices are expected to maintain strong resilience in the context of fluctuating global risk assets [3][12][25]. - Short-term oil market dynamics may intensify, suggesting an underweight in oil. Investor expectations regarding oil supply and demand are relatively consistent, and OPEC+ production adjustments are expected to be moderate. Geopolitical events in South America may increase the US's influence on global oil prices, with policies favoring lower oil prices anticipated [3][12][25]. Group 3 - Recent US labor market data shows a mild cooling, with the unemployment rate at 4.4%, below expectations. Non-farm payrolls for December were 50,000, also below expectations, while initial jobless claims were 208,000, slightly better than expected [7][30]. - The resilience of the US economy is indicated by the ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 54.4, above expectations, while the manufacturing PMI was slightly below expectations at 47.9. The Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was 54.0, also above expectations [7][30].

Group 1 - The report suggests tactical overweighting in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while recommending standard allocation in government bonds and underweighting in oil due to rising global risk aversion driven by geopolitical changes in South America [2][3][18] - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, including expectations of expanded fiscal deficits and more proactive economic policies as the 14th Five-Year Plan begins [16][17] - The US stock market is expected to perform well, supported by resilient corporate earnings and a cautious monetary policy direction from the Federal Reserve, despite marginal economic cooling [16][17] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical uncertainties, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, which supports long-term price stability [18][19] - The oil market is anticipated to face short-term volatility, with consistent supply-demand expectations and geopolitical events potentially increasing US influence on global oil prices, leading to continued pressure on oil prices [18][19] - The tactical asset allocation model indicates a strategic weight of 45% in equities, 45% in bonds, and 10% in commodities, with specific allocations detailed for various asset classes [20][26]

需求预期上修与交易动量维持高位，我们维持对工业商品的战术性超配观点。 以铜为代表的工业金属或阶段性处于供需不平衡的情况。建筑、电网与电动车 是当下的主 要需求驱动， AI 算力扩张与电网现代化亦带来新增结构性需求，而铜的开发成本与复杂性显著提高，投资意愿减弱，或阶段性推高铜价。工业商 品相较于其他主要大类资产的风险回报比较高 。 美国货币政策修正与经济收敛使美元承压，我们维持对美元的战术性低配观点 。 美联储修正货币政策指引方向与美国经济边际收敛使得美元相较于其他货币 的配置价值有所下降。但去美元化交易阶段性放缓，弱美元亦并非持续下行。美元相较于其他主要大类资产的风险回报比较低 。 风险提示：分析维度存在局限性，模型设计存在主观性，历史与预期数据存在偏差，市场一致预期调整，量化模型局限性。 报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配 A/H 股与工 业金属，战术性标配国债，战术性低配美元。 多重因素支持中国权益表现，我们维持对 A/H 股的战术性超配观点。 全球风险偏好大幅承压导致的资产波动叠加恐慌抛售使得微观交易风险大幅释放。随着 十五五开年经济增速的重要性，政策窗口期临近，市场后 ...

Group 1 - The report from Guotai Junan highlights the increasing enthusiasm for China's technological breakthroughs and emerging industries, supported by stable policy expectations and capital market reforms that enhance market risk appetite [1] - The demand for quality assets in China is surging, particularly in the context of geopolitical uncertainties affecting capital market volatility, which may provide investment opportunities [1] - The report maintains a tactical overweight position on A/H shares, indicating a positive outlook for Chinese equities due to multiple supportive factors [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a more accommodative monetary policy in the U.S. may lead to a mild decline in real interest rates, supporting a tactical allocation to U.S. Treasuries [2] - The report suggests that the recent regional bank crises could accelerate the process of adjusting monetary policy and liquidity expectations [2] Group 3 - The imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market, maintaining a tactical allocation to government bonds [3] - The report notes that geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion are influencing domestic interest rates, which may experience wide fluctuations [3] Group 4 - Global macro liquidity improvements and rising risk aversion are expected to support gold prices, with a tactical overweight position on gold maintained [4] - The report indicates that gold has recently surpassed key resistance levels, driven by factors such as U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing purchases by the Chinese central bank [4] Group 5 - The resilience of the Chinese economy and reduced risks from extreme geopolitical conflicts are supporting the stability and appreciation of the RMB [5] - The report anticipates that the RMB will exhibit a two-way fluctuation pattern, with a tendency for central stability and appreciation in the context of a complex global macro environment [5]