宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 资产重"扩圈"，债券再思辩 核心观点 1、2025 年，我们认为是债券类资产由强转弱的拐点之年，支撑这一判断的有 三点原因： ①2025 年，居民可投资资产从 2018 年以来的"缩圈"，转变为再度"扩圈"。 过去几年，可投资资产的"缩圈"意味着居民现金为王，规避风险，无风险的 国债自然受到大家青睐；2025 年科技创新的突破和稳股市政策带动了居民可 投资资产的"扩圈"，市场愿意拥抱一定程度的风险赚取高收益，固定收益资 产的性价比自然降低； ②可投资资产"扩圈"推动居民存款搬家，在此情景下企业现金流改善，存款 增速向上抬升，实体经济循环修复，利润和通胀预期好转引发债券收益率的上 行风险； ③经济循环的修复影响了货币政策态度。虽然适度宽松的货币政策基调不变， 但随着经济循环的修复，货币政策的表述逐步从 2024 年四季度货币政策委员 会例会的"建议加大货币政策调控强度"转化为 2025 年四季度货币政策委员 会例会的"建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应"。这一变化客观限制了债 市做多的想象空间。事实上，参照历史经验，在经济修复的过程中，资金价格 和资金的波动率进一 ...

美联储理事米兰下调今年降息幅度：预期就业市场迎来好转 近日，美联储理事米兰在公开演讲中宣布，今年将适度下调降息幅度。这一决策背后反映了美联储对美 国经济及就业市场的最新预期，同时也为市场带来了一系列信号与启示。 一、米兰的决策背景 在全球经济形势不确定的背景下，美联储一直通过调整货币政策来平衡经济增长与通胀风险。近期，随 着部分经济数据的积极表现，美联储对未来经济前景持有更为乐观的态度。米兰作为美联储的重要决策 者之一，此次宣布下调降息幅度，体现了其对就业市场好转的预期。 三、预期就业市场好转 随着经济的复苏，就业市场也在逐步改善。米兰表示，美联储预期今年就业市场将出现好转。这一判断 基于以下几个因素：一是经济恢复速度加快；二是政府推动的一系列政策措施有助于提升就业；三是企 业对招聘的需求持续上升。 四、市场反应与启示 米兰的讲话对金融市场产生了一定的影响。投资者对美联储的决策持谨慎乐观态度，认为这将有助于经 济的稳步增长。此外，这一决策也为企业提供了更为明确的政策导向，有助于推动就业市场的进一步改 善。 总之，美联储理事米兰宣布下调今年降息幅度，反映了其对经济及就业市场的乐观预期。这一决策将有 助于平衡货币 ...

格隆汇2月19日｜新西兰联储确认，从2027年起，该行将把每年的政策决策次数从7次增加到8次。此次 调整将更好地适应从明年开始CPI数据改为按月发布而非按季发布。而为了配合明年8次会议决策的安 排，2027年2月的决策日期将提前一周。尽管目前央行已确定好至2028年2月的决策日程，但若金融或经 济形势需要，货币政策委员会可随时进行非常规决策。有分析师指出，此次调整属于程序性而非方向性 变动。不过，会议频率提高或能略微缩短政策的滞后效应，且在实施后，可能会使纽元及利率对月度消 费者物价指数意外变动的敏感度有所提高。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January has increased market speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [1][2] - The January CPI data indicates a gradual easing of inflationary pressures, which is a critical factor for the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy decisions [1] - The market's rising expectations for a June rate cut could significantly impact borrowing costs, investment returns, and consumer prices, potentially stimulating economic growth and boosting market confidence [1][2] Group 2 - The CPI data serves as a new reference point for future monetary policy adjustments, suggesting that if inflation continues to slow, the Federal Reserve may consider further easing measures, including rate cuts [2] - Overall, the lower-than-expected CPI has sparked renewed speculation and anticipation regarding future monetary policy changes, particularly the likelihood of a June rate cut, which could have profound effects on the lending market, investment landscape, and overall economic activity [2]

Core Insights - The strong performance of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for January has significantly impacted market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, leading to a reduction in such expectations [1][2] - The robust job growth indicates resilience and growth momentum in the U.S. economy, providing the Federal Reserve with greater policy flexibility [1] - The market's previous anticipation of interest rate cuts due to economic or inflationary pressures may be altered by the strong non-farm employment data, suggesting the Fed may adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term [1] Economic Indicators - January's non-farm payroll data showed job additions far exceeding market expectations, reflecting a strong labor market [1] - The positive employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to implement interest rate cuts, at least in the near term [1][2] Future Policy Outlook - July is identified as a critical observation period for potential changes in monetary policy, influenced by seasonal economic adjustments and global economic uncertainties [1] - Despite the current positive data, there are concerns regarding future risks such as changes in the global economic landscape and geopolitical tensions, which could affect the Fed's decision-making [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Turkey's inflation data for January exceeded expectations, increasing uncertainty regarding monetary policy adjustments, with a potential pause in interest rate cuts expected in March [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Turkey rose by 4.84% month-on-month in January, with a year-on-year increase of 30.65%, driven by rising food prices and price adjustments at the beginning of the year [1] - The Central Bank of Turkey has reduced the policy interest rate from 46% to 37% since July 2025, with the next monetary policy committee meeting scheduled for March 2026 [1] Group 2 - The CEO of Isbank, Hakan Aran, indicated that maintaining the interest rate could signal policy firmness to the market [1] - Based on January's data, the Central Bank's previous inflation forecast for the end of 2026, which was between 13% and 19%, is now considered invalid, with a new lower limit of at least 19% and a more reasonable range potentially moving to 19% to 25% [1] - Financial analyst Serpil Tuncer from Istanbul believes that due to fluctuations in food prices and persistent inflation in the service sector, the Central Bank is more likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach in the March meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market experienced its most severe turbulence in 40 years, with a dramatic drop in gold prices following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, shifting market expectations from aggressive monetary easing to maintaining high interest rates and reducing the balance sheet [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Reaction - On January 30, 2026, the London spot gold price peaked at $5,598 per ounce before plummeting nearly $670, a drop of 12.92%, reaching a low of $4,682 per ounce [1][3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 contract saw a daily drop of over 9%, with some gold jewelry prices adjusting down by 15% [3] - The panic among investors was evident, with many rushing to liquidate their holdings, leading to long queues at gold shops [3][11] Group 2: Economic Factors - The direct trigger for the price drop was the nomination of Kevin Warsh, a known hawk, which altered market expectations regarding monetary policy [3][6] - Prior to the crash, gold prices had surged significantly, with a 67% increase in 2025, leading to a market that was severely overbought [3][8] - The relative strength index (RSI) for gold reached 90, indicating extreme overbought conditions, while non-commercial net long positions in gold futures were at 68%, well above the historical average of 45% [3][8] Group 3: Market Structure - Central banks globally increased their gold holdings, with net purchases reaching 863 tons in 2025, while Tether became the largest private holder with 140 tons [5] - The leverage in gold futures increased by 37% compared to early 2025, exacerbating market vulnerability [6][9] - The strong performance of the US dollar and rising Treasury yields further pressured gold prices, with the dollar index rising 1.01% on January 30, reaching a seven-month high [6][8] Group 4: Historical Context - The recent crash shares similarities with past significant declines in gold prices, notably in 1980 and 2013, driven by aggressive Federal Reserve policies and economic recovery signals [9][11] - Unlike previous crashes, the current decline is characterized by a rapid adjustment but with stronger fundamental support due to increased central bank demand for gold [9][11] Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The price drop led to a bifurcation in consumer behavior, with some investors liquidating assets while younger consumers took the opportunity to purchase gold [11][13] - Retail strategies were quickly adjusted, with brands like Chow Tai Fook changing pricing strategies and online platforms promoting discounted gold [11][13] - The volatility in the gold market highlighted the complexities and vulnerabilities of modern financial markets, posing challenges to global financial stability [11][13]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has continued its upward trend against the US dollar (USD), reaching a high of 0.7094, the highest since January 2023, driven by positive economic data from China and Australia, a resumption of the interest rate hike cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and a weakening USD index [1][2] - China's economic performance directly impacts the AUD, with improvements in service and manufacturing PMIs indicating a positive outlook for Australian commodity exports [2][3] - Australia's domestic economy showed strong performance, with the composite PMI rising from 51.0 to 55.7, marking the strongest expansion in 45 months, and the services PMI reaching its highest level since February 2022 [3] Group 2 - The RBA raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike since November 2023, driven by higher-than-expected inflation data [4] - Inflation pressures in Australia are significant, with the December CPI rising by 1.0%, exceeding expectations, and the January TD-MI inflation indicator showing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [4][5] - Market expectations for further rate hikes by the RBA have increased, with an 80% probability of a rate hike in May and potential additional hikes totaling around 40 basis points within the year [6] Group 3 - The USD index has been weak, trading around 97.40, influenced by a lack of key economic data from the US and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates [6] - Despite stronger-than-expected PPI data in the US, market expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve have not completely dissipated, maintaining a weak outlook for the USD [6] Group 4 - Technically, the AUD/USD is in an upward channel, with a strong bullish trend, although it may face short-term adjustment pressure due to being in the overbought zone [8] - Key resistance for the AUD/USD is at the 0.7100 level, with potential to test the upper channel at 0.7210, while support is concentrated around the 9-day EMA at 0.6964 [8]

Group 1 - The current market situation is characterized as a "repricing of risk assets" rather than a simple price correction, indicating a collective reassessment of long-ignored assumptions [3][5] - The macroeconomic environment has shifted, with signals from the Federal Reserve suggesting a potential slowdown in interest rate cuts, leading to a reevaluation of assets that thrived on low rates and high liquidity [4][5] - The tightening of liquidity and the strengthening of the dollar have forced long positions in various assets, including gold, to be liquidated, resulting in simultaneous declines in these safe-haven assets [6][7] Group 2 - Bitcoin and gold are both influenced by macroeconomic trends but differ significantly in their belief systems, funding structures, and correction mechanisms [20] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to its status as a central bank asset, which provides a buffer against severe drops, unlike Bitcoin, which is more volatile [21] - Gold is recognized as a universal hard currency with intrinsic value, and its price is expected to rise in the long term due to limited supply and increasing global demand, despite short-term fluctuations [23]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline on February 2, 2026, with all three major indices dropping over 2%, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4015.75 points, down 2.48% [1] - The total trading volume in A-shares reached 2.61 trillion, with 770 stocks rising and 4647 stocks falling [1] Market Sentiment and Structure - The recent market downturn is primarily driven by emotional and trading structure factors rather than fundamental issues, indicating that rapid declines can be a characteristic of a slow bull market [1] - The adjustment is seen as a normalization of market leverage and sentiment, correcting the previous overly optimistic outlook and speculative capital [2] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has limited impact on the current market adjustment, serving more as a final catalyst [3] - The Fed is unlikely to shift to a hawkish stance immediately due to soft employment data and stable inflation, with no significant room for rate cuts unless unemployment rises substantially [3] Commodity Market Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector, which had the highest gains in January, is expected to undergo a correction due to leverage and sentiment, but will likely return to an upward trend in commodity prices once this phase is completed [3] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. long-term debt, the independence of the dollar monetary system, and structural changes in resource demand are expected to maintain upward pressure on upstream resource prices [3] Industry Developments - Tesla announced the upcoming launch of its third-generation humanoid robot, with plans for annual production of 1 million units, indicating a shift in production lines at its Fremont factory [4] - The ramp-up period for the humanoid robot production is expected to be longer than that for automotive products due to its independent supply chain and first-principles design [4]