香港各界：把握"十五五"机遇，开拓新发展空间 中新社香港11月26日电 (记者 戴梦岚)24日至25日，中共二十届四中全会精神中央宣讲团在香港特区进 行宣讲，广大市民收看相关直播。香港各界人士在接受中新社记者采访时表示，宣讲活动有助于香港社 会深入把握国家"十五五"时期的发展机遇，推动香港积极融入和服务国家发展大局。 11月25日，中共二十届四中全会精神宣讲会在香港特区政府总部举行。中央宣讲团成员，中国科学 院院长、党组书记侯建国(右)，以及中央宣讲团成员，中央财经委员会办公室副主任、中央农村工作领 导小组办公室副主任祝卫东(左)分别作宣讲。 中新社记者 李志华 摄 港区全国政协委员、港区妇联代表联谊会副会长张佐姣表示，她将积极向香港各界别，特别是广大香港 妇女同胞，深入浅出地宣讲国家的大政方针和发展规划；努力提升香港妇女的综合素质和竞争能力，鼓 励和支持她们在国家发展的新征程中展现作为，为香港发展注入更多"她力量"和"她智慧"。 中国侨联委员、宁夏回族自治区政协港澳委员阎伟宁说，听完宣讲会受益良多，更清晰地理解全会精神 对香港长远发展的重要指导意义。当前，国家正推进粤港澳大湾区建设，香港可发挥金融优势助力人 ...

日本内阁府最新统计显示，日本今年第三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率下降1.8%，为自2024 年第一季度以来第二次负增长。分析认为，这一数据是美国政府自4月起加征汽车关税及实施所谓"对等 关税"所造成的负面影响的直接反映，出口产业尤其是汽车业受到的打击最为沉重。内阁府的中期经济 报告指出，美国关税措施对日本经济的负面影响仍在持续，加之物价上涨削弱消费，日本政府已将2025 财年的经济增长预期从1.2%下调至0.7%。 为解决当前日本面临的经济困境，日本政府于11月21日批准了总额21.3万亿日元的经济刺激计划，其中 17.7万亿日元通过补充预算安排，2.7万亿日元来自减税。支出划分为"生活安全保障与物价对策"11.7万 亿日元、"危机管理与成长投资"7.2万亿日元以及"强化防卫与外交"1.7万亿日元，内容涵盖汽油和柴油 税下调、扩大能源补贴、向未满18岁儿童发放2万日元补贴及提高所得税起征点等。然而经济界普遍认 为，日本政府大规模经济刺激计划，将引发市场对日本财政状况和信用情况的担忧，不仅难以实现预期 效果，还可能进一步伤害日本经济。 自日本高市早苗政府启动以来，日本经济形势持续恶化。首先是美国关税措施 ...

2025 年 11 月 21 日 策略研究 牛市第三年，时间重于空间 ——2026 年度策略展望 要点 长期牛市的基础 本轮牛市无论在时间还是空间之上，都仍然值得期待。牛市持续需要的不仅是流 动性的好转，历史来看，时间周期越长，市场与基本面的相关性就越高。因此在 我们展望长期牛市可能性的时候，基本面的稳健改善仍然是基础，政策往往提供 了预期改善的拐点，资金决定斜率与节奏。牛市至此，未来更需要关注基本面预 期的兑现。 盈利总量稳定，关注结构亮点 关注"十五五" 开局之年政策共振。政策方面，"十五五"规划建议为未来五 年的经济与产业发展提供了重要的政策基础。五年规划开局之年，市场通常都有 不错的表现，结构也将与政策增量方向相一致。此外，金融政策预计仍然整体处 于放松周期之中。 牛市第三年，时间重于空间 市场当前位置有望是长期牛市的起点。基本面的逐步好转与产业亮点仍然是市场 长期牛市的基础，居民资金的流入与"十五五"开局之年的政策支持将决定市场 的斜率与节奏。与往年全面牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是 在政府对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。 行业主线与切换可能 2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the technology service industry in China, highlighting its role as a bridge between innovation supply and industrial demand, and the need for enhanced collaboration between technology services and financial support to drive high-quality development. Technology Service Industry - The technology service industry focuses on the efficient transformation and industrialization of scientific achievements, providing comprehensive intellectual support through various segments such as R&D consulting, intellectual property agency, testing and certification, and technology financial services [1]. - It serves as a natural link between the innovation chain and the industrial chain, characterized by high talent density, technological content, and significant industrial added value [1]. Policy Support - The Chinese government is actively promoting the high-quality development of the technology service industry through comprehensive policies, including the issuance of implementation opinions by nine departments in May 2025, focusing on technology finance and technology transfer [2]. - Local governments, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have introduced specific policies to enhance the technology service industry, with Shanghai aiming for significant transformation achievements by 2027 [3]. Financial Support - Financial support is crucial for the innovation and development of the technology service industry, with Beijing's VC/PE investment reaching 103.8 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, a 19.4% increase year-on-year [4]. - The relationship between finance and technology services is symbiotic, where financial capital aids technology companies in overcoming challenges, while the development of technology services provides new opportunities for financial innovation [4]. Future Development - Strengthening financial services for technology enterprises throughout their lifecycle is essential for implementing innovation-driven development strategies and achieving high-level technological self-reliance [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology outlines key reforms to enhance the technology service industry, including building a unified technology transaction service platform and fostering specialized technical managers [6].

中国⼈民银行副行长陶玲11月14日在第十六届财新峰会上表示，构建可持续的金融生态。重视金融生态对金融业发展的关键影响。强化清晰的产权 界定、公平的竞争规则、有效的契约执行、适度的融资成本、有力的权益保护。 约束金融行业"内卷式竞争"，保持合理的盈利空间。 ...

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's announcement on November 10 to stop writing Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder letter and speaking at shareholder meetings marks the end of an investment era that has lasted over half a century [2] - The transition of leadership to Greg Abel signifies a potential shift in Berkshire's investment strategy, moving away from pure long-termism to a more diversified and shorter holding period approach [2][3] - Berkshire Hathaway's recent performance has struggled to outperform the S&P 500, highlighting strategic challenges and the need for adaptation in a rapidly changing market environment dominated by technology [3][4] Investment Strategy - Buffett's investment philosophy has traditionally focused on undervalued blue-chip stocks, primarily within the traditional American economy, including sectors like consumer goods, finance, and energy [3] - The rise of technology as a core driver of economic growth necessitates a reevaluation of value investing principles, as traditional methods may not be sufficient in the current high-valuation environment [4] - Berkshire's significant cash reserves provide an opportunity to capitalize on market adjustments, despite the challenges posed by the current investment landscape [4][5] Legacy and Future - Buffett's retirement does not signify the end of value investing but rather a transformation and continuation of his core principles, emphasizing the importance of patience and adaptability in investment strategies [5] - The need for the market to allow Greg Abel sufficient time to establish his investment approach is crucial for the evolution of value investing [5]

Economic Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for per capita GDP to reach the level of middle-income countries by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4%[5] - The plan continues the economic growth target set in the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for GDP growth to remain within a reasonable range[20] Confidence and Strategy - The plan reflects a more confident and proactive stance, emphasizing the ability to face significant challenges and maintain long-term stability[6] - It highlights the importance of strategic determination and confidence in overcoming both domestic and international uncertainties[9] Supply-Side Focus - The plan stresses the importance of maintaining the manufacturing sector's position in the economy and advancing manufacturing capabilities[39] - It includes a forward-looking approach to technology and industry, aiming to establish a modern industrial system with a focus on advanced and future technologies[39] Demand-Side Initiatives - A key focus is on increasing the household consumption rate, which is currently low compared to other countries, as part of the strategy to expand domestic demand[7] - The plan emphasizes "investing in people" as a means to stimulate effective investment and enhance consumption rates[7] Financial Sector Priorities - The financial sector's focus is on risk prevention, market stability, and expanding openness, reflecting a shift in the role and capabilities of financial authorities[8] - The central bank and regulatory bodies are committed to supporting economic development while maintaining a stringent regulatory environment[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the belief that China is one of the most promising economies in the world, highlighting its ability to adapt and respond to challenges through continuous learning and optimization [1] Group 1 - The individual,站路江, was born in Rome, Italy, in a family involved in the financial industry [1] - The decision to study in China and work for a Chinese company was influenced by the family's perception of China's economic potential [1] - The ability to quickly respond and flexibly adjust to various challenges is seen as a key factor in China's development [1] Group 2 - The belief in Chinese-style modernization is that it will not only continue to foster domestic growth but also provide new ideas and solutions globally [1]

Group 1: Consumption and Economic Growth - Improving the resident consumption rate is a key goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan" with a target to increase it significantly from the current 39.9% to align more closely with the global average of 56.3%[2][4] - The plan emphasizes a shift towards an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption, moving away from reliance on external demand and investment[4][5] - The proposal aims to enhance the income of low- and middle-income groups, with the middle-income group projected to grow from over 400 million in 2017 to over 800 million in the coming years[4][5] Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The "15th Five-Year Plan" introduces a more proactive macroeconomic policy, focusing on "stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations" as a guiding principle[4][5] - It highlights the need for direct consumer-oriented policies, such as subsidies and tax deductions, to stimulate consumption[4][5] - The plan includes measures to improve income distribution through enhanced taxation and social security systems, aiming to reduce income inequality[5][6] Group 3: Technological and Industrial Development - New strategic emerging industries include low-altitude economy, quantum technology, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interfaces, reflecting a shift in focus for the upcoming five years[4][6] - Infrastructure development will prioritize safety, resilience, and digital transformation, with an emphasis on integrating traditional infrastructure with smart technologies[6][7] - The plan stresses the urgency of technological innovation, particularly in critical areas like integrated circuits and high-end instruments, proposing "extraordinary measures" to achieve breakthroughs[6][7] Group 4: Financial and Fiscal Strategies - The plan calls for the construction of a financial powerhouse, emphasizing the importance of capital markets in supporting the real economy and innovation[7][8] - It proposes reforms in fiscal policy, including zero-based budgeting to ensure efficient allocation of resources and enhance fiscal sustainability[7][8] - The focus on enhancing the direct tax system aims to balance the tax burden between labor and capital, improving overall income distribution[7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving basic socialist modernization, building on the significant achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and addressing complex domestic and international challenges [2][3][4]. Group 1: Achievements and Challenges - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw major achievements in economic stability, high-quality development, technological innovation, and social governance despite facing severe challenges such as the pandemic [2]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period will focus on consolidating advantages, overcoming bottlenecks, and enhancing weaknesses to secure strategic initiatives in international competition [3][4]. Group 2: Economic and Social Development Goals - The guiding principles for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include adhering to Marxism, promoting high-quality development, and ensuring that modernization benefits all citizens [6][7][8]. - Key goals include achieving significant results in high-quality development, enhancing self-reliance in technology, and improving social governance and public services [10][11][12]. Group 3: Modernization of Industry and Infrastructure - The establishment of a modern industrial system is essential, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors such as new materials and aerospace [13][14]. - Infrastructure development will prioritize integrated planning and the construction of new types of infrastructure to enhance resilience and sustainability [15]. Group 4: Technological Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation, aiming to strengthen the national innovation system and enhance the integration of technology and industry [16][17][18]. Group 5: Domestic Market and Consumption - Strengthening the domestic market is a strategic focus, with initiatives to boost consumption and investment while ensuring a positive interaction between supply and demand [21][22][23]. Group 6: High-Quality Development and Economic System - The plan aims to enhance the socialist market economy, stimulate various ownership enterprises, and improve the efficiency of resource allocation [24][25][26]. Group 7: Open Economy and International Cooperation - The strategy includes expanding high-level openness and cooperation, promoting trade innovation, and enhancing investment collaboration to create a win-win situation [27][28][29]. Group 8: Agricultural Modernization - Agricultural modernization is a priority, focusing on improving production capacity, quality, and efficiency while ensuring rural revitalization and integration with urban development [30][31][32]. Group 9: Regional Development - The plan aims to optimize regional economic layouts and promote coordinated development across different regions, enhancing infrastructure connectivity and collaborative growth [33][34]. Group 10: Cultural and Social Development - Cultural prosperity and social welfare are emphasized, with initiatives to enhance public services, promote cultural innovation, and ensure equitable access to resources [36][37][38][39][40].