11月21日，A股三大指数集体下挫，个股呈现普跌态势。截至收盘，沪指跌2.45%，深成指跌3.41%，创业板指跌4.02%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 1 Wm | 3834.89 | | -96.16 | -2.45% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 200 | 12538.07 | | -442.75 | -3.41% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | mon | 2920.08 | | -122.26 | -4.02% | 盘面上，锂电池产业链领跌，锂矿方向掀跌停潮；算力硬件题材大幅走低，存储器方向跌幅靠前；半导体、消费电子、光伏、金融科技 概念股跌幅明显。 | | | 【资金流向】 主力资金全天净流入传媒、农林牧渔、船舶制造等板块，净流出有色金属、电力设备、电子等板块。 具体到个股来看，凯美特气、易点天下、视觉中国获净流入7.67亿元、6.41亿元、5.46亿元。 净流出方面，工业富联、胜宏科技、新易盛遭抛售20.64亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with major indices falling significantly, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45% to 3834.89, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 3.41% to 12538.07, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.02% to 2920.08 [4]. - The lithium battery industry chain led the decline, with lithium mining stocks experiencing a wave of limit-downs [3][4]. Sector Analysis - The military industry sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Pingao Co., Longxi Co., and Tefa Information hitting the daily limit, while Jiuzhiyang and Jianglong Shipbuilding rose over 10% [3][4]. - Conversely, sectors such as semiconductor, consumer electronics, photovoltaic, and fintech saw significant declines [3]. Trading Volume and Market Breadth - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 5100 stocks declining [6]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in sectors like media, agriculture, and shipbuilding, while outflows were noted in non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and electronics [8]. - Specific stocks such as Kaimete Gas, Yidian Tianxia, and Vision China saw net inflows of 767 million, 641 million, and 546 million respectively, while Industrial Fulian, Shenghong Technology, and Xinyi Sheng faced outflows of 2.064 billion, 1.760 billion, and 1.729 billion respectively [8]. Institutional Perspectives - Qianhai Ju Zhen Capital suggests that the market will continue to experience fluctuations but maintains a long-term positive outlook supported by capital, policy, and fundamentals [10]. - Zhongxin Jiantou anticipates a new upward cycle for the securities industry, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of the capital market [10]. - Zhongyuan Securities expects a steady upward trend in the short term and advises investors to maintain reasonable positions to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses [11].

格隆汇11月21日｜中信建投发布非银2026年投资展望：锚定十五五"提高资本市场制度包容性、适应 性"的核心导向，证券行业有望迎来新一轮上行周期，助力金融强国建设。核心驱动来自于三大政策性 机遇：一是政策引导资本市场服务新质生产力。科创板、创业板深化改革推动投行升级价值创造力，匹 配高科技实体企业全生命周期融资需求，打开投行业务中长期增长空间。二是政策完善长钱长投生态。 社保、保险等中长期资金入市渠道持续畅通，借权益产品扩容激活券商资管与机构业务增量，推动行业 向配置驱动转型。三是政策推动一流投行培育与国际化相辅相成，中资券商可依托中国香港市场及互联 互通政策加速国际业务突破，并购整合将助推行业资源向头部集中，提升头部券商资本实力与国际竞争 力。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, with a total of 269 M&A events recorded, including 58 major transactions during the period from October 13 to November 2, 2025 [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy updates aimed at enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market regulations, particularly in supporting technology innovation and meeting diverse investor needs [8]. - The restructuring index outperformed the Wind All A index by 1.61% during the reporting period, indicating a strong performance relative to the broader market [24]. Summary by Sections 1. M&A Dynamics Review - A total of 13 failed M&A events were noted, while 44 M&A transactions were completed, including 2 major ones [10][18]. 2. Policy Updates - On October 31, the Chairman of the CSRC emphasized the need for more inclusive policies for M&A and capital market operations [8]. - The Shenzhen government aims to enhance the quality of listed companies, targeting a total market value exceeding 20 trillion yuan by the end of 2027 [8]. 3. Major M&A Updates - The report lists several significant M&A transactions, including the acquisition of 100% equity in various companies across different sectors, with transaction values reaching hundreds of millions to billions of yuan [14][16]. 4. Control Changes - Six companies reported changes in actual control, indicating shifts in ownership that may impact their strategic direction and market performance [21]. 5. Market Performance - The restructuring index showed a positive trend, with a rolling 20-day return turning from negative to positive, reflecting improved investor sentiment in the sector [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system, focusing on political and public interests while reforming the system to better protect the rights of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors [1] Group 1: Capital Market System - The capital market system must prioritize political and public interests in its operations [1] - There is a call for reforms that align with market needs and public demands to effectively protect the legal rights of investors [1] Group 2: Investment and Financing Coordination - Better coordination between investment and financing is essential for balanced development [1] - The focus should be on both the overall quantity balance and the continuous improvement of quality [1] - The aim is to facilitate the conversion of household savings into social investments and to optimize the financing structure steadily [1] Group 3: Market Development - The article advocates for the promotion of coordinated development between primary and secondary markets [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the non-bank financial industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by at least 10% over the next six months [34]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial index rose by 2% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.2 percentage points. The brokerage and insurance indices also saw increases of 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively, indicating a synchronized upward trend in these sectors [3][8]. - The report highlights the rapid growth in third-quarter earnings for brokerages, driven by a market recovery. Major brokerages like CITIC Securities and Huaxin Securities reported year-on-year profit increases of 37.9% and 66.4%, respectively, with a significant rise in average daily A-share trading volume [4][8]. - The upcoming Financial Street Forum is expected to provide policy-driven catalysts that could further enhance market activity and valuations in the brokerage sector [4]. Market Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 23,307 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.2% from the previous week. The margin trading balance increased by 1.1% to 2.46 trillion yuan, while the stock pledge market value rose by 2.1% to 2.99 trillion yuan [16][22]. - The report notes that the insurance sector is also experiencing strong earnings growth, with major insurers like China Life and New China Life projecting profit increases of 50%-70% and 45%-65%, respectively, for the first three quarters of 2025 [4][14]. Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the importance of enhancing the resilience and risk management capabilities of the capital market during a recent meeting. This includes improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of market regulations and promoting deeper capital market openness [32]. - The report mentions that the new regulatory framework aims to support high-quality development in the financial sector, focusing on risk prevention and regulatory compliance [32].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting led by Wu Qing emphasized the importance of enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market, aligning with the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [1] Group 1 - The meeting focused on the implementation of measures to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [1] - It highlighted the need to fully utilize the nurturing functions of the New Third Board, private equity, and venture capital within the multi-tiered equity market [1] - The meeting also stressed the importance of strengthening the functions of the bond and futures markets [1]

Group 1 - The report from Guotai Junan highlights the increasing enthusiasm for China's technological breakthroughs and emerging industries, supported by stable policy expectations and capital market reforms that enhance market risk appetite [1] - The demand for quality assets in China is surging, particularly in the context of geopolitical uncertainties affecting capital market volatility, which may provide investment opportunities [1] - The report maintains a tactical overweight position on A/H shares, indicating a positive outlook for Chinese equities due to multiple supportive factors [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a more accommodative monetary policy in the U.S. may lead to a mild decline in real interest rates, supporting a tactical allocation to U.S. Treasuries [2] - The report suggests that the recent regional bank crises could accelerate the process of adjusting monetary policy and liquidity expectations [2] Group 3 - The imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market, maintaining a tactical allocation to government bonds [3] - The report notes that geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion are influencing domestic interest rates, which may experience wide fluctuations [3] Group 4 - Global macro liquidity improvements and rising risk aversion are expected to support gold prices, with a tactical overweight position on gold maintained [4] - The report indicates that gold has recently surpassed key resistance levels, driven by factors such as U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing purchases by the Chinese central bank [4] Group 5 - The resilience of the Chinese economy and reduced risks from extreme geopolitical conflicts are supporting the stability and appreciation of the RMB [5] - The report anticipates that the RMB will exhibit a two-way fluctuation pattern, with a tendency for central stability and appreciation in the context of a complex global macro environment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy was introduced, but it remains in a value trap due to underlying economic challenges [1][2]. Economic Fundamentals - The current Chinese economy is in a downward cycle, with significant fiscal pressure on local governments and a severe employment situation, making it difficult for the fundamentals to provide effective support [1]. - The total social financing in China is heavily reliant on bank loans, which amount to approximately 36 trillion yuan, indicating a low proportion of direct financing from the capital market [1]. Market Liquidity - The coordination efficiency between the central bank and the securities regulatory commission has significantly improved, with the central financial committee playing a key role in injecting ample liquidity into the market [2]. - Despite a rebound of about 800 points from the market's low, systemic optimization of the institutional framework is necessary to avoid resistance to further market growth [2]. Institutional Reforms - The issue of major shareholder reductions is identified as a core bottleneck affecting market confidence and long-term healthy development [2]. - There are over 5,400 listed companies in the A-share market with a total share capital of approximately 77 trillion shares, of which over 90% are tradable [2]. Shareholder Behavior - Current major shareholders are criticized for focusing on reducing their holdings rather than improving company operations, which undermines the original intent of the capital market to serve the real economy [3]. - A warning is issued regarding the potential market crash if major shareholders are allowed to reduce their holdings indiscriminately, with an estimated funding requirement of about 15 trillion yuan for comprehensive reductions [3].

Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the article emphasizes the effectiveness of the central bank's policy tools introduced on September 24, 2024, in stabilizing the market and guiding capital flow, while also highlighting existing structural challenges in the capital market [1][3][5]. Policy Implementation and Market Stability - The combination of monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies has played a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations, with the central bank's tools effectively alleviating liquidity pressure on non-bank institutions, particularly during quarter-end and holiday periods [3][5]. - Following the implementation of these policies, the volatility of the CSI 300 index significantly decreased, and risk premiums converged, indicating a positive impact on market stability [3][5][6]. Structural Challenges - Despite the positive effects, the policies primarily served as a "floor" rather than a "lift," with some tools showing insufficient transmission efficiency and a cautious approach from smaller financial institutions regarding the use of swap facilities [5][6]. - The slow pace of macroeconomic recovery and the lack of significant improvement in corporate profit expectations continue to pose structural challenges in the capital market [5][6]. Capital Flow Characteristics - The liquidity released by the policies has been directed towards key sectors such as small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing, with a notable increase in the proportion of medium to long-term loans [6][7]. - Market behavior has shown a trend towards long-term investment, with institutional investors focusing on financial, consumer, and growth sectors, while individual investors are shifting from short-term speculation to medium to long-term holding [6][7]. Beneficiaries of Policy Measures - The sectors and companies that have truly benefited from the policies are primarily stable cash flow blue-chip enterprises and those in technology innovation and advanced manufacturing, including finance, energy, and consumption [7][8]. - Stock buybacks and increased loans have been widely applied in high-end manufacturing, new energy, and biomedicine, effectively alleviating capital expenditure pressures and promoting technological upgrades [7][8]. Coordination of Macro Policies - The coordination between monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies has formed a comprehensive "macro policy combination," effectively addressing economic downward pressure and stabilizing growth [8][9]. - The combination of active fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies has successfully reduced production and financing costs for enterprises, enhancing market vitality and creativity [8][9]. Long-term Market Improvement Factors - Among various factors driving the market, capital market reforms and policies encouraging long-term capital inflow are deemed crucial for the long-term improvement of market fundamentals [9][10]. - Reforms aimed at optimizing listing systems, enhancing the quality of listed companies, and improving the mechanisms for mergers and acquisitions have strengthened market stability and investor confidence [9][10].