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奥赛康24年报及25年一季报点评:创新转型快速推进,25年迎来商业化元年
Orient Securities· 2025-05-07 12:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 22.36 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 1.778 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.15%. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same year was 160 million CNY, a substantial increase of 207.92% [9]. - The first innovative product has been approved for market launch, marking 2025 as a year of commercialization for the company. The innovative transformation has been successful, with the drug Lapatinib (a third-generation EGFR inhibitor) approved for treating non-small cell lung cancer [9]. - The company has a promising pipeline with early-stage research products like IL-15 and ASKG712, which are expected to contribute to future growth [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1.443 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.217 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.3% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from a loss of 149 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 473 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [7]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 80.5% to 81.0% over the forecast period, indicating strong pricing power and cost control [7]. Valuation Summary - The absolute valuation of the company suggests a reasonable market value of 20.755 billion CNY, corresponding to a target price of 22.36 CNY per share [11]. - The forecasted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from -110.6 in 2023 to 34.8 in 2027, indicating improving profitability [7]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 5.7 in 2023 to 4.0 in 2027, reflecting a more attractive valuation as the company becomes profitable [7].