4Q 2025 Earnings Call 26 November 2025 Forward-Looking Statements This earnings call, this presentational and accompanying materials may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as "forecast," "guidance," "project," "target," "outlook," "prospects," "expect," "estimate," "will," "goal," "plan," "anticipate," "intend," "predict," "believe," "likely," " ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 FY2026 was $644.5 million, a decrease of 5.2% compared to $679.8 million in Q3 FY2025 [8, 27, 29] - Pre-tax income for Q3 FY2026 was $2.8 million [8, 31] - Diluted earnings per share for Q3 FY2026 were $0.05, a decrease of 28.6% [8, 29] - For the first nine months of FY2026, total revenue was $1.7853 billion, down 8.1% from $1.9422 billion in the same period of FY2025 [32, 34, 36] - The company anticipates a loss of $2 to $4 million in Q4 due to the divestiture of dealership operations in Germany [21] Segment Performance - Agriculture segment revenue is expected to be down 15% to 20% for FY26 [12, 45] - Construction segment revenue is expected to be down 5% to 10% for FY26 [16, 45] - Europe segment revenue is expected to be up 35% to 40% for FY26 [21, 45] - Australia segment revenue is expected to be down 20% to 25% for FY26 [26, 45] Balance Sheet - Equipment inventory decreased by $97 million as of October 31, 2025, compared to January 31, 2025 [39] - Used equipment inventory decreased by $96 million [39] - Rental fleet assets decreased to $71 million as of October 31, 2025, from $76 million as of January 31, 2025 [39]

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. and Deere & Company are leading players in the heavy machinery sector, with Caterpillar focusing on construction and mining, while Deere specializes in agriculture and forestry [1] - Caterpillar's market capitalization is approximately $257 billion, while Deere's is around $129 billion, indicating their significant roles in industrial and agricultural cycles [2] Caterpillar Overview - In Q3 2025, Caterpillar achieved record revenues of $17.6 billion, a 9.5% increase year-over-year, primarily due to a 10% rise in sales volume [2][8] - The company anticipates modest revenue growth for 2025, with projected revenues between $42 billion and $72 billion, and adjusted operating margins expected between 10% and 22% [3] - Caterpillar is poised to benefit from the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which is expected to drive demand for its construction equipment [4] - The company is also experiencing strong demand for reciprocating engines for data centers, planning to double output through a multi-year capital investment [5] - Caterpillar aims to increase service revenues from $14 billion in 2016 to $28 billion by 2026, capitalizing on high-margin aftermarket parts and services [6] Deere Overview - Deere has faced eight consecutive quarters of revenue declines, with lower earnings attributed to reduced volumes in agriculture and construction sectors [7] - The company expects a decline in sales volumes for 2025, with a projected net income between $4.75 billion and $5.25 billion, reflecting a 29.6% decrease from the previous year [9] - Despite current challenges, long-term demand for agricultural equipment is expected to rise due to global food demand and the need to replace aging machinery [11][12] Financial Estimates Comparison - Caterpillar's 2025 sales estimate is $66.11 billion, indicating a 2% year-over-year growth, while earnings per share are projected to decline by 16% [13] - Deere's 2025 sales estimate is $38.31 billion, reflecting a 14.4% year-over-year decline, with earnings per share expected to fall by 27.7% [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Caterpillar's stock has increased by 50.5%, compared to Deere's 12.4% gain [15] - Caterpillar trades at a forward earnings multiple of 25.51X, while Deere's multiple is 23.49X [16] - Caterpillar's return on equity stands at 47.16%, significantly higher than Deere's 21.97%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [19] Investment Outlook - Caterpillar shows stronger momentum with rising volumes and renewed revenue growth, making it a more favorable investment compared to Deere, which faces near-term pressures [20][21]

Weichai Power (000338.SZ) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Weichai Power is China's largest manufacturer of internal combustion engines, holding approximately 18% market share in the diesel engine segment. The company operates across various sectors including commercial vehicles, construction machinery, agricultural equipment, marine, and power generation [10][12]. Key Financial Results (3Q25) - **Net Profit (NP)**: Rmb3.23 billion, representing a 29% year-over-year (yoy) increase and a 10% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) increase, exceeding expectations by 27% [1][7]. - **Topline Revenue**: Rmb57.42 billion, up 16% yoy and 3% qoq, surpassing estimates by 4% [6]. - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: 21.4%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points yoy and 0.8 percentage points qoq, but 0.4 percentage points above estimates [6]. - **Operating Expenses**: Rmb7.68 billion, which was 9% lower than expected, contributing to an EBIT margin of 8.0%, up 1.2 percentage points yoy and 1.9 percentage points qoq [6][7]. - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Rmb6.66 billion, significantly improved from -Rmb1.18 billion in 3Q24 and Rmb9.43 billion in 2Q25 [1][11]. Segment Performance - **Heavy-Duty Trucks (HDT)**: Sales volume for HDT assembly and engines grew by 34% and 20% yoy, respectively, indicating strong demand recovery [6]. - **KION (Subsidiary)**: Achieved a 58% yoy increase in NP with a solid order intake growth of 10% yoy, contributing approximately 10% to Weichai's normalized NP [1][11]. Operational Insights - The company is expected to discuss operational trends by segment, engine wallet share dynamics, updates on the large-bore engine business, and guidance for 4Q25 and 2026 during the upcoming management conference call [8]. Investment Thesis - The investment thesis is based on a positive cyclical outlook for heavy-duty trucks, improved profitability from a more profitable engine portfolio, and potential tailwinds from KION's European capex exposure. The long-term earnings prospects are expected to be underappreciated by the market, with a robust FCF profile and a strong net cash position [12][14]. Risks - Key risks include slower-than-expected macroeconomic activity, weaker global economic growth, shifts towards electrification, and potential underperformance in HDT engine market share [14]. Valuation - The target price for Weichai's H-share is set at HK$20.00, reflecting an 11.5x 2026E EPS, while the A-share target price is Rmb19.60, applying a 6% premium to the H-share value [13][15]. Conclusion - Weichai Power's strong financial performance in 3Q25, coupled with a positive outlook for the heavy-duty truck market and robust cash flow generation, supports a "Buy" rating for both A- and H-shares [1][12].

Core Insights - Agriculture stocks are currently highlighted as significant investment opportunities, with Deere & Company, Corteva, Bunge Global, Cal-Maine Foods, and Gates Industrial being the top five to watch according to MarketBeat's stock screener tool [2] - These stocks provide exposure to various factors such as commodity prices, weather variability, input costs, and government policies, making them cyclical but valuable for diversification and inflation protection [2] Company Summaries - **Deere & Company (DE)**: Engages in manufacturing and distributing equipment for agriculture, construction, forestry, and turf care, operating through segments including Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services [3] - **Corteva (CTVA)**: Operates in agriculture with two segments, Seed and Crop Protection, focusing on developing advanced germplasm and traits for optimal farm yields, enhancing resistance to various agricultural challenges [3] - **Bunge Global (BG)**: Functions as an agribusiness and food company with four segments: Agribusiness, Refined and Specialty Oils, Milling, and Sugar and Bioenergy, involved in purchasing, storing, and processing agricultural commodities [4] - **Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)**: Produces, grades, packages, markets, and distributes shell eggs, offering a variety of specialty eggs under several brand names [5] - **Gates Industrial (GTES)**: Engages in manufacturing and distributing industrial products, with further details available in the latest research report [5]

Core Viewpoint - John Deere is experiencing a slowdown in sales due to customer uncertainty linked to tariffs, leading to layoffs and significant financial impacts, yet the stock has risen, indicating investor confidence in future recovery [2][3][12]. Company Performance - John Deere plans to lay off over 200 workers due to a sales slowdown, attributing a $300 million loss this year to tariffs, with a forecasted total impact of nearly $600 million [2]. - Adjusted earnings have declined from $34.63 in 2023 to $25.62 in 2024, with expectations of further decline to approximately $18.55 this year [3]. - Despite declining earnings, Deere's stock has increased by 12% year-to-date and 15% over the last year, currently trading around $470 [3]. Industry Context - Deere is a cyclical company closely tied to agricultural demand cycles, currently at a low point, with a recovery anticipated around fiscal 2026 [5][12]. - The agricultural equipment sector is expected to see significant growth in 2026 and 2027, making Deere's current valuation attractive for long-term investors [5][12]. Financial Metrics - Deere's revenue decreased by 20.9% over the last 12 months, from $55 billion to $43 billion, with an 8.3% drop in the most recent quarter [16]. - The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 52.7%, which is higher than the S&P 500's 21.0%, but still manageable for an industrial firm [10]. - Operating margin stands at 20.0% compared to the S&P 500's 18.6%, and net income margin is at 12.0% versus the S&P 500's 12.7% [16]. Key Catalysts - Inventory normalization has been achieved, aligning production with retail demand, which is expected to support healthier growth in the future [16]. - Federal rate cuts are making financing agricultural equipment less expensive, encouraging farmers to invest in new machinery [16]. - Deere is trading at 2.9 times revenue, lower than Caterpillar and reasonably compared to the wider market, indicating attractive valuation [16]. Long-term Outlook - The cyclical downturn is expected to conclude, with Deere positioned for recovery, making it an appealing investment for those with a 3-5 year outlook [12][18]. - Historical performance shows Deere's resilience during market stress, indicating potential for strong rebounds when conditions improve [11][18].

Core Insights - Deere & Company is experiencing ongoing challenges in its equipment operations, with nine consecutive quarters of volume declines, particularly in the Agricultural & Turf segment due to weak farmer demand influenced by commodity prices, high input costs, and elevated interest rates [1][9]. Agricultural Market Projections - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects net farm income to reach $179.8 billion in 2025, a 40.7% increase from the previous year, largely driven by a $30.4 billion rise in direct government farm payments [2][9]. - Crop receipts are expected to decline by 2.5% due to lower revenues from soybeans, corn, and wheat, although this will be partially offset by an 11.2% increase in animal and animal products receipts [3]. Equipment Market Outlook - Deere anticipates a challenging industry outlook for fiscal 2025, with a projected 30% decline in the large agriculture equipment market in the U.S. and Canada, and a 10% decline in the small agriculture and turf equipment market [4][5]. - The Production & Precision AG segment is expected to see a volume decline of 15-20%, while the Small AG & Turf segment is projected to decline by 11% [5][6]. Competitor Performance - Industry peers such as AGCO Corporation and CNH Industrial are also facing difficulties, with AGCO experiencing six consecutive quarters of negative organic growth and expecting a decline in sales volumes for both large and small agricultural equipment [7][8]. Financial Performance and Estimates - Deere's shares have increased by 11.4% this year, slightly outperforming the industry average of 10.9% [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 27.5% for fiscal 2025, with revenues expected to drop by 14.5% [12].

Core Insights - Titan Machinery Inc. reported an adjusted loss per share of 26 cents for Q2 fiscal 2026, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 56 cents loss, but a reversal from the adjusted earnings of 17 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1][8] - Total revenues for the quarter were $546 million, down 13.8% year-over-year, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $504 million [2][8] - The company anticipates a loss of $1.50 to $2.00 per share for fiscal 2026, reflecting weak demand, which is an update from the previous expectation of a loss of $1.25 to $2.00 per share [9] Revenue Breakdown - Equipment revenues decreased by 19.1% year-over-year to $376 million, while parts revenues fell slightly by 0.5% to $109 million [2] - Service revenues increased by 3.2% year-over-year to approximately $49 million, and rental and other revenues rose by 7.1% to $12 million [2] - Agriculture segment revenues fell 18.4% to $346 million, and construction revenues were down 10.2% to $72 million [4] Segment Performance - Europe revenues increased by 44.1% year-over-year to $98 million, driven by favorable foreign currency impacts, with income before taxes rising 121.7% to $5.1 million [5] - The Australia segment reported a significant decline in revenues, down 50.1% year-over-year to $31 million, resulting in a loss before taxes of $2.1 million [5] Cost and Margin Analysis - Cost of sales decreased by 13.1% to $453 million, while gross profit fell 16.6% year-over-year to $94 million, leading to a gross margin of 17.1%, down from 17.7% in the prior year [3] - Operating expenses decreased by 2.6% year-over-year to $93 million, attributed to lower variable expenses [3] - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $5.6 million, a decline from $20.2 million in the prior year [3] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Cash used for operating activities was $50 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, compared to an outflow of $48 million in the same period last year [6] - The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of approximately $33 million and long-term debt of $153 million, down from $158 million at the end of fiscal 2025 [6] Future Outlook - The Agriculture segment's revenue decline is now expected to be between 15% to 20%, an improvement from the previous forecast of 20% to 25% [7] - The Construction segment's revenues are anticipated to decline by 3% to 8%, updated from a previous estimate of 5% to 10% [9] - Year-over-year revenue growth in Europe is projected at 30% to 40%, an increase from the earlier estimate of 23% to 28% [9] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Titan Machinery's shares have increased by 38.2%, outperforming the industry's growth of 15.8% [10]

Core Insights - Deere & Company is facing ongoing volume pressures in its equipment operations, with eight consecutive quarters of decline, particularly in the Agricultural & Turf segment [1][10] - Weak farmer sentiment, driven by low commodity prices, high input costs, and elevated interest rates, is negatively impacting demand for agricultural machinery [2] - The company anticipates a challenging industry outlook for fiscal 2025, with significant declines expected in both large and small agricultural equipment markets [3] Equipment Operations - The Agricultural & Turf segment is projected to see a 16.4% decline in volumes, with the Production & Precision AG segment expected to drop 17.6% and the Small AG & Turf segment by 14.2% [5] - The Construction & Forestry segment is also expected to decline by 12.4% in volumes for 2025 [5] - Overall, Equipment Operations' volumes are anticipated to decline by 15.3% in 2025 [5] Market Conditions - The large agriculture equipment market in the U.S. and Canada is expected to decline by 30%, while the small agriculture and turf equipment market is projected to decline by 10-15% [3] - Construction equipment demand is under pressure, with a forecasted 10% drop in U.S. and Canadian construction equipment sales [4] - Trade uncertainty and high interest rates are affecting order activity for both construction and compact construction equipment [4][10] Competitor Analysis - Industry peers such as AGCO Corporation and CNH Industrial are also experiencing declines, with AGCO expecting a 12.1% decline in organic growth for 2025 [6][8] - AGCO anticipates a 25-30% drop in sales volumes of large agricultural equipment in North America [7] - CNH Industrial has reported eight consecutive quarters of volume declines in the Agriculture segment [8] Financial Performance - Deere's shares have gained 24.4% this year, outperforming the industry average of 18.3% [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere's fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 26.5%, with revenues expected to drop by 15% [12] - The earnings estimate for fiscal 2026 indicates a potential recovery with a 17% growth forecast [12]

Core Insights - Deere & Company (DE) is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 24.46X, which is a 7% premium to the farm equipment manufacturing industry's average of 22.85X and significantly higher than DE's five-year median of 15.83X, resulting in a Value Score of D [1] Financial Performance - DE stock has gained 20.3% year to date, outperforming the industry's growth of 18.3%, while the broader Zacks Industrial Products sector has declined by 2.2% and the S&P 500 has increased by 1.2% [3] - The company expects net income for FY25 to be between $4.75 billion and $5.5 billion, a decrease from $7.1 billion in FY24, due to weak demand across all segments [6][14] - Year-over-year declines in revenues and earnings have been observed for the past six quarters, attributed to lower shipment volumes amid weak demand, although pricing strategies have somewhat mitigated the impact [8] Market Conditions - Farmer spending has been muted due to low commodity prices, persistent inflation, and high interest rates, which are negatively impacting demand for agricultural equipment [9] - DE anticipates a decline in net sales for Production & Precision Agriculture by 15-20%, Small Agriculture & Turf by 10-15%, and Construction & Forestry by 10-15% in FY25 [13] Long-term Prospects - Despite near-term challenges, DE's focus on technology and global demand trends supports long-term growth potential, with the U.S. agricultural machinery market expected to reach $42 billion in 2025 and grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% to around $57.1 billion by 2030 [16] - The company has been investing in advanced technologies and recently acquired Sentera to enhance its offerings in data-driven agricultural solutions [18] Competitive Position - DE's trailing 12-month return on equity is 24.4%, outperforming the industry's average of 19.2%, indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds [19] - Compared to key competitors, AGCO and CNH Industrial have ROEs of 10.6% and 14.32%, respectively, while Komatsu has 13.56%, positioning DE favorably within the industry [20]