Fourth Quarter FY2026 Earnings Conference Call March 19, 2026 Safe Harbor Statement Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements about our beliefs and expectations and statements containing the words "may," "could," "would," "should," "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "plan," "estimate," "target," "project," "intend" and similar expressions may constitute forward-looking statements. Except for historical inf ...

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Company reported strong first-quarter earnings and revenue, exceeding analyst expectations and raising its full-year profit forecast, leading to a significant increase in share price [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a first-quarter net income of $656 million, or $2.42 per share, surpassing analyst estimates of $2.02 per share [2]. - Revenue increased by 13% year over year to $9.61 billion, significantly above the consensus estimate of $7.59 billion [2]. - Despite the revenue growth, net income declined by 25% compared to $869 million, or $3.19 per share, reported in the same quarter a year earlier [2]. - Deere raised its fiscal 2026 net income guidance to a range of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion [2]. Segment Performance - The Small Agriculture & Turf segment saw sales increase by 24% to $2.17 billion, with operating profit surging by 58% to $196 million [3]. - The Construction & Forestry segment also experienced strong growth, with sales rising by 34% to $2.67 billion and operating profit more than doubling to $137 million [3].

Core Insights - The company reported a 6% increase in consolidated revenues for Q4 2025, but a 9% decline in full-year revenues due to lower demand in the agricultural equipment sector [1][2] - Net income for Q4 2025 was $89 million, down from $176 million in Q4 2024, with full-year net income at $505 million compared to $1,259 million in 2024 [1][2] - The company anticipates lower demand levels in 2026, with a projected recovery in 2027 for the agricultural equipment market [1][23] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 consolidated revenues were $5.16 billion, up from $4.88 billion in Q4 2024, while net sales of Industrial Activities increased to $4.45 billion, an 8% rise [1][4] - Full-year 2025 consolidated revenues totaled $18.10 billion, a 9% decrease from $19.84 billion in 2024, with net sales of Industrial Activities at $15.35 billion, down 10% [2][18] - Full-year diluted EPS was $0.41, down from $0.99 in 2024, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.55 compared to $1.05 in 2024 [2][19] Segment Performance - The Agriculture segment saw Q4 2025 net sales increase by 5% to $3.6 billion, but adjusted EBIT decreased to $233 million from $244 million in Q4 2024 [10][20] - In the Construction segment, Q4 2025 net sales rose 19% to $853 million, driven by higher shipment volumes, although adjusted EBIT fell to $5 million from $18 million in Q4 2024 [11][13] - Financial Services revenues decreased by 6% in Q4 2025 due to lower yields and reduced average portfolio balances, while net income increased by 18% to $109 million [14][16] Market Outlook - The company expects a further 5% decline in global industry retail demand for agricultural equipment in 2026, maintaining low production levels and managing dealer inventories [23][24] - The construction equipment market is projected to remain flat in 2026, with varying demand across different construction sectors [24]

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Company has maintained a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns despite significant challenges in the agricultural sector [2][4]. Dividend Growth Trajectory - The company has shown a remarkable dividend growth record, with annual payouts increasing from $3.04 in 2020 to $6.48 in 2025, representing a 113% increase over five years [3]. - The quarterly dividend of $1.62 has been consistent throughout 2025, marking a 5% increase from the previous year's total of $6.18 [3]. Earnings Reality Check - Deere's net income fell by 29% year-over-year in fiscal 2025, dropping to $5.027 billion from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024, and a 50.5% decline from the fiscal 2023 peak of $10.166 billion [5][8]. - Revenue also decreased to $44.665 billion in fiscal 2025 from $50.518 billion the prior year, with the operating margin compressing from 22.6% to 18.8% due to weakened pricing power and elevated costs [5]. Dividend Payout Ratio - The dividend payout ratio increased to 34.2% in fiscal 2025, up from 22.6% in fiscal 2024 and 14% in fiscal 2023, with $1.72 billion paid in dividends against $5.027 billion in net income [6][8]. - Free cash flow coverage has decreased from 2.88x to 1.88x, indicating a tighter financial position [8]. Market Performance - Despite the earnings pressure, Deere shares have gained 33.5% year-to-date, as investors remain optimistic about a potential recovery in the agricultural sector [8]. - The current share price is $621.36, with a target price of $528.26, indicating a potential downside of 15% [10]. Financial Metrics - Dividend yield stands at 1.09%, with a payout ratio of 34.2% and a five-year growth rate of 113% [9]. - The company has a solid balance sheet, reflected in a B- overall grade, indicating sustainable yet stretched dividends [12].

Core Insights - Deere & Company has maintained a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter at this level, despite facing significant earnings pressure due to an agricultural downturn [1][2] - The company's net income fell 50.5% from its fiscal 2023 peak, with revenue declining to $44.7 billion in fiscal 2025 [1] - Despite these challenges, Deere's stock has appreciated by 33.5% year-to-date, indicating investor optimism regarding a potential recovery in agricultural markets [1] Dividend Growth Trajectory - Deere's annual dividend payouts increased from $3.04 in 2020 to $6.48 in 2025, representing a 113% growth over five years [1] - The company has consistently paid dividends for over two decades, with the current quarterly rate being 7.4 times higher than the $0.22 payment in 2003 [1] Earnings Reality Check - In fiscal 2025, Deere's net income dropped to $5.027 billion from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024, a year-over-year decline of 29% [1] - Revenue also decreased from $50.518 billion in fiscal 2024 to $44.665 billion in fiscal 2025, with operating margins compressing from 22.6% to 18.8% [1] Cash Flow Metrics - Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $7.459 billion, down 19% from the previous year, leading to a free cash flow of $3.231 billion, which is only 1.88 times the dividend payment [1] - The first quarter of fiscal 2025 saw negative operating cash flow of $1.132 billion, while dividends of $403 million were still paid [1] Balance Sheet Strength - Total shareholder equity rose by 13.6% to $25.95 billion in fiscal 2025, with retained earnings increasing to $59.676 billion [1] - The debt-to-equity ratio improved from 2.87x to 2.47x, with total debt decreasing to $63.936 billion, although interest expenses rose to 7.1% of revenue [1] Historical Context - Deere has previously navigated challenging dividend situations, maintaining dividends even when free cash flow coverage dropped to 0.69x in fiscal 2022 [1] - The current free cash flow coverage of 1.88x is significantly better than past crisis levels [1] Valuation Perspective - Deere's stock trades at a trailing P/E of 33x and a forward P/E of 37x, reflecting investor expectations of future agricultural recovery [1] - The current dividend yield of 1.09% is below the industrial sector average, indicating that the stock may be more suitable for total-return investors rather than those seeking immediate income [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a peak equipment inventory of approximately $1.3 billion, with guidance suggesting a reduction of about $550 million by the end of January [24] - Equipment margins improved from 3% in the first half of fiscal 2026 to 7% in the third quarter, indicating a recovery trend [28][29] - The company aims to operate within a tighter inventory range of two and a half times turn, focusing on improving the mix of inventory [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue split is approximately 75% from equipment sales and just under 25% from parts and service, with parts and service contributing about 50% of gross profit dollars [3][4] - The service side has a gross profitability margin in the low 60s%, while parts have a margin in the low 30s%, compared to single-digit margins for equipment [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is navigating a down cycle, with industry volumes expected to be about 50% of the long-term average from 2000 to 2025, potentially marking the lowest point in several decades [18][19] - The agricultural equipment market is under pressure, with large ag equipment expected to decline by 15%-20% in the upcoming year [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on consolidating its dealership footprint to enhance service efficiency and customer care, particularly in rural areas [5][6] - Recent divestitures in Germany were part of a strategy to focus on areas with higher profitability potential and to strengthen the dual-brand dealership model [12][14] - The company is investing in digitization and automation to improve operational efficiency and is currently implementing a new ERP system [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current down cycle but expresses confidence in the company's positioning for future recovery, emphasizing strong relationships and a proactive approach to inventory management [30][38] - The leadership team is focused on adjusting strategies in response to market conditions, including pulling back on purchasing and refining inventory management practices [37][38] Other Important Information - The company is actively pursuing M&A opportunities within its core footprint, aiming to increase dealership density and improve service delivery [10][11] - Floor plan interest has been a significant constraint on EPS generation, with efforts underway to reduce this burden through improved inventory turnover [32][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company source M&A opportunities? - The company relies on relationships within the industry and proactively engages with neighboring dealers to express interest in potential acquisitions [8][9] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding inventory management? - The company has implemented a plan to reduce inventory levels and improve the mix, focusing on presales and regionalized stock inventory [21][22] Question: How does the company view the current cycle and its impact on operations? - Management believes the current cycle presents challenges but also opportunities for consolidation and efficiency improvements, positioning the company for future growth [30][38]

Group 1 - The discussion highlights the profitability issues faced by farmers, particularly regarding machinery and fertilizer costs, which are influenced by imports from countries like Canada [5][6][8] - There is a plan to bolster domestic fertilizer production through severe tariffs on foreign imports, aiming to make fertilizer more affordable for American farmers [6][7] - The administration emphasizes the need to address skyrocketing input costs that are affecting farmers, while foreign-owned companies in the meatpacking sector continue to profit significantly [8][9] Group 2 - The administration expresses a preference for homegrown produce over cheaper foreign alternatives, although some products cannot be grown domestically due to climate limitations [11] - There is a focus on making American farmers stronger, with discussions around potential tariff revenue to provide additional relief [12][13] - The administration claims that the current economic situation is favorable, with significant investments flowing into the country, amounting to $18 trillion, which is unprecedented [21][22] Group 3 - Concerns are raised about the impact of Obamacare on health care premiums, with expectations that 22 million Americans will see their insurance costs rise due to expiring subsidies [23][24] - The administration's plan involves redirecting funds from insurance companies to individuals, allowing them to purchase their own health care, which is positioned as a more favorable approach [26][27][36] - The administration criticizes the current health care system as being overly beneficial to insurance companies, which have seen significant stock price increases [25][35] Group 4 - The discussion touches on the challenges faced in appointing U.S. attorneys due to the blue slip process, which is seen as a barrier to appointing qualified candidates [39][40] - The administration expresses frustration over the inability to appoint Republican U.S. attorneys in states with Democrat senators, highlighting a perceived imbalance in the political appointment process [41][42] - There is a call for reforming the blue slip process to allow for a more equitable appointment of U.S. attorneys, emphasizing the need for highly qualified candidates [43]

Financial Performance - FY2025 - Deere & Company's FY2025 net sales and revenues reached $51716 million, a 13% increase compared to $45684 million in FY2024[7] - Net sales for equipment operations in FY2025 were $44759 million, up 15% from $38917 million in FY2024[7] - Net income attributable to Deere & Company for FY2025 was $7100 million, a 29% increase compared to $5027 million in FY2024[7] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 were $2552, a 28% increase compared to $1850 in FY2024[7] Financial Performance - 4Q2025 - Net sales and revenues for 4Q2025 were $12394 million, a 11% increase compared to $11143 million in 4Q2024[9] - Net sales for equipment operations in 4Q2025 were $10579 million, up 14% from $9275 million in 4Q2024[9] - Net income attributable to Deere & Company for 4Q2025 was $1065 million, a 14% decrease compared to $1245 million in 4Q2024[9] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 4Q2025 were $393, a 14% decrease compared to $455 in 4Q2024[9] Segment Performance - 4Q2025 - Production & Precision Ag net sales in 4Q2025 were $4740 million, a 10% increase compared to $4305 million in 4Q2024[11] - Small Ag & Turf net sales in 4Q2025 were $2457 million, a 7% increase compared to $2306 million in 4Q2024[13] - Construction & Forestry net sales in 4Q2025 were $3382 million, a 27% increase compared to $2664 million in 4Q2024[24] Financial Outlook - FY2026 - Deere & Company forecasts a net income attributable to the company of $40-475 billion for FY2026[35] - The company anticipates an effective tax rate of 25-27% for FY2026[35] - Net operating cash flow for FY2026 is projected to be $40-50 billion[36] - Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $14 billion[37]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 FY2026 was $644.5 million, a decrease of 5.2% compared to $679.8 million in Q3 FY2025 [8, 27, 29] - Pre-tax income for Q3 FY2026 was $2.8 million [8, 31] - Diluted earnings per share for Q3 FY2026 were $0.05, a decrease of 28.6% [8, 29] - For the first nine months of FY2026, total revenue was $1.7853 billion, down 8.1% from $1.9422 billion in the same period of FY2025 [32, 34, 36] - The company anticipates a loss of $2 to $4 million in Q4 due to the divestiture of dealership operations in Germany [21] Segment Performance - Agriculture segment revenue is expected to be down 15% to 20% for FY26 [12, 45] - Construction segment revenue is expected to be down 5% to 10% for FY26 [16, 45] - Europe segment revenue is expected to be up 35% to 40% for FY26 [21, 45] - Australia segment revenue is expected to be down 20% to 25% for FY26 [26, 45] Balance Sheet - Equipment inventory decreased by $97 million as of October 31, 2025, compared to January 31, 2025 [39] - Used equipment inventory decreased by $96 million [39] - Rental fleet assets decreased to $71 million as of October 31, 2025, from $76 million as of January 31, 2025 [39]

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. and Deere & Company are leading players in the heavy machinery sector, with Caterpillar focusing on construction and mining, while Deere specializes in agriculture and forestry [1] - Caterpillar's market capitalization is approximately $257 billion, while Deere's is around $129 billion, indicating their significant roles in industrial and agricultural cycles [2] Caterpillar Overview - In Q3 2025, Caterpillar achieved record revenues of $17.6 billion, a 9.5% increase year-over-year, primarily due to a 10% rise in sales volume [2][8] - The company anticipates modest revenue growth for 2025, with projected revenues between $42 billion and $72 billion, and adjusted operating margins expected between 10% and 22% [3] - Caterpillar is poised to benefit from the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which is expected to drive demand for its construction equipment [4] - The company is also experiencing strong demand for reciprocating engines for data centers, planning to double output through a multi-year capital investment [5] - Caterpillar aims to increase service revenues from $14 billion in 2016 to $28 billion by 2026, capitalizing on high-margin aftermarket parts and services [6] Deere Overview - Deere has faced eight consecutive quarters of revenue declines, with lower earnings attributed to reduced volumes in agriculture and construction sectors [7] - The company expects a decline in sales volumes for 2025, with a projected net income between $4.75 billion and $5.25 billion, reflecting a 29.6% decrease from the previous year [9] - Despite current challenges, long-term demand for agricultural equipment is expected to rise due to global food demand and the need to replace aging machinery [11][12] Financial Estimates Comparison - Caterpillar's 2025 sales estimate is $66.11 billion, indicating a 2% year-over-year growth, while earnings per share are projected to decline by 16% [13] - Deere's 2025 sales estimate is $38.31 billion, reflecting a 14.4% year-over-year decline, with earnings per share expected to fall by 27.7% [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Caterpillar's stock has increased by 50.5%, compared to Deere's 12.4% gain [15] - Caterpillar trades at a forward earnings multiple of 25.51X, while Deere's multiple is 23.49X [16] - Caterpillar's return on equity stands at 47.16%, significantly higher than Deere's 21.97%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [19] Investment Outlook - Caterpillar shows stronger momentum with rising volumes and renewed revenue growth, making it a more favorable investment compared to Deere, which faces near-term pressures [20][21]