Core Insights - The upcoming release of September's consumer price index (CPI) report is expected to be a significant market event due to the lack of recent economic data caused by the government shutdown [2][3] - Economists predict a monthly increase of 0.4% in the all-items CPI, maintaining a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than August [4] - The focus will be on any deviations in inflation readings and the impact of tariffs on prices, with expectations of upward pressure in certain categories [5][7] Economic Context - The CPI report is the last major economic reading before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where another interest rate cut is anticipated [6][10] - Despite the uncertainty from the government shutdown, the economy has shown resilience, with GDP tracking close to 4% for the third quarter [11] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs, are raising concerns about potential impacts on economic growth [9] Market Reactions - Investors are currently experiencing volatility, with major stock market averages nearing record levels [8] - A higher-than-expected CPI number could lead to increased market volatility, but it may also present buying opportunities given the strong economic fundamentals [12]

Allegiant's Business Model and Performance - Allegiant operates a unique ULCC model focusing on leisure customers with diversified revenue streams and low competition on 75% of its routes[4] - As of March 31, 2023, Allegiant has $2.5 billion in revenue (TTM) and a 23% EBITDA margin for 1Q23[6] - Allegiant has optimized performance even in high fuel environments, as shown by its adjusted pre-tax margin from 2005-2022[7,8] Network and Capacity Management - Allegiant serves 572 routes, connecting 93 small/medium cities with 32 leisure destinations[11] - The airline expertly matches capacity with demand trends, adjusting aircraft utilization based on the day of the week and seasonality[16,17] - Allegiant has a high percentage of non-competitive routes, with 449 routes without competition as of 2023[14] Revenue and Financials - Third-party product sales contribute significantly, with cumulative revenue of $734 million as of 2022[19] - The Allways Rewards credit card program has over 400,000 active cardholders and generated over $100 million in remuneration in FY2022[26] - Allegiant's revenue per passenger in 1Q23 was $154, with TRASM increasing by 28% year-over-year[31,33] - The company projects a consolidated EPS of $9.75 for 2023[35] Future Investments and Fleet - Allegiant projects $986 million in capital expenditures for 2023, including $206 million for the Sunseeker Resort and $560 million for aircraft and engines[43] - The company is investing in Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, expecting a ~40% increase in EBITDA per aircraft over the current fleet[52]