Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported better-than-expected performance for Q3 2025, with net revenue of HKD 8.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2%, recovering to 147% of Q3 2019 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was HKD 2.373 billion, up 20% year-on-year and down 6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 153% of Q3 2019 levels, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimate of HKD 2.304 billion [1] - Total gaming revenue for MGM Cotai and MGM Macau reached 170% and 104% of Q3 2019 levels, respectively, driven by high-end demand [1] Development Trends - Management noted strong performance during the Golden Week, with total gaming revenue achieving year-on-year growth and a market share of 16.5% in October, outperforming the industry [1] - Management expects MGM China to achieve over USD 100 million in EBITDA by October 2025, potentially setting historical highs for monthly revenue and EBITDA [1] - Despite increasing industry competition, management remains confident in maintaining market share through high-quality products and services [1] - The Alpha gaming area opened at MGM Macau at the end of Q3 2025, featuring 30 gaming tables, Alpha villas, and a cigar bar [1] - MGM Cotai has begun renovation projects to convert 160 standard rooms into 60 suites, primarily two-bedroom suites, expected to be completed in the first half of 2026 to meet evolving customer preferences [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price corresponding to 6 times the 2026 projected EV/EBITDA [2] - The company maintains an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 19.80, corresponding to 8 times the 2026 projected EV/EBITDA, indicating a 31% upside from the current stock price [2]