Based on historical trends, the script is likely to flip for quantum computing pure-play stocks in 2026.If you think artificial intelligence (AI) is the only hot trend on Wall Street, you haven't been paying close enough attention to the quantum computing revolution.Over the trailing year, shares of quantum computing pure-play stocks IonQ (IONQ +1.70%), Rigetti Computing (RGTI +2.91%), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS +4.42%), and Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT +2.15%) have rallied by 43%, 545%, 458%, and 67%, respective ...

The people who know Wall Street's hottest quantum computing stocks best are giving investors a clear reason to be skeptical.For three years, artificial intelligence (AI) has been captivating the attention and wallets of professional and retail investors. But in 2025, this game-changing technology was outdone by an even more hyped innovation: quantum computing.Over the trailing year, quantum computing pure-play stocks IonQ (IONQ +0.06%), Rigetti Computing (RGTI 0.14%), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 0.49%), and Quantu ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential bubble in quantum computing stocks, highlighting that while the technology is promising, it is still years away from significant practical applications [1][10][17] Industry Overview - Quantum computing is expected to create substantial economic value, estimated between $450 billion to $850 billion by 2040, indicating a wide range of potential beneficiaries [3] - The early-stage commercialization of quantum computing has generated investor excitement, with major companies like Amazon and Microsoft providing access to quantum computing services [5][12] Company Performance - Quantum computing stocks such as IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. have seen significant price increases, with some stocks rallying by as much as 829% over the past year [2][6] - Projected sales growth for these companies from 2025 to 2027 includes IonQ increasing from $108 million to $315 million, Rigetti from $8 million to $48 million, D-Wave from $25 million to $74 million, and Quantum Computing Inc. from $1 million to $10 million [7][6] Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the quantum computing bubble may burst in 2026, as historical trends indicate that investor expectations often exceed the actual adoption and utility of new technologies [8][9] - The first-mover advantage of current quantum computing companies is at risk due to competition from major tech firms like Alphabet and Microsoft, which are also investing heavily in quantum technologies [13][14] Valuation Concerns - Current valuations of quantum computing stocks suggest a high probability of a bubble, with price-to-sales ratios for these companies projected to exceed historical peaks associated with previous technology bubbles [16]

Core Insights - The quantum-computing industry gained significant momentum in 2025, with both private and public sectors accelerating hardware development and policy support [1] - Investor interest surged, as evidenced by the Defiance Quantum Computing ETF crossing $2 billion in assets under management and delivering approximately 25% year-to-date returns [2] - Major technology companies like IBM, Google, Amazon, and NVIDIA made substantial advancements in quantum technology, indicating a strategic focus on this frontier [3] Industry Developments - IonQ reported $39.9 million in revenues for Q3 2025, exceeding guidance by 37% and achieving 222% year-over-year growth, alongside a world-record two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.99% [4] - D-Wave reported $3.7 million in Q3 revenues, doubling year-over-year, and secured a €10 million sale, showcasing increasing commercial adoption [5] - IBM introduced the Quantum Nighthawk processor with 120 qubits and advanced its fault-tolerance roadmap, targeting quantum advantage by 2026 [8] Investment Opportunities - Pure-play companies like IonQ and D-Wave present high upside potential but come with significant risks, including high cash burn and reliance on technical progress [5][11] - Large-cap technology firms provide a more stable investment avenue, supported by diversified cash flows and robust R&D capabilities, making them attractive for risk-adjusted performance [11] - Investors seeking asymmetric returns may consider modest positions in pure-plays, while those prioritizing stability should focus on established tech giants [11]

Core Insights - The rise of quantum computing stocks has been significant, with companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. showing extraordinary returns compared to traditional tech stocks [2][10] - The potential for quantum computing to revolutionize industries and its projected economic impact is substantial, with estimates suggesting it could add between $450 billion to $1 trillion to the global economy by 2040 and 2035 respectively [6][10] - Major tech companies, including Amazon and Microsoft, are investing in quantum computing, which could pose a competitive threat to pure-play quantum computing stocks [9][19] Investment Performance - Over the past year, IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have seen returns of 90%, 1,860%, 1,530%, and 385% respectively, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq Composite's 20% increase [2] - The market capitalization of IonQ is currently $15 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio that is significantly higher than historical benchmarks, indicating potential overvaluation [8][13] Technology and Applications - Quantum computing enables rapid, simultaneous calculations, allowing it to solve complex problems that classical computers cannot handle [4] - One practical application of quantum computing is enhancing AI algorithms' real-time processing and decision-making capabilities [5] Competitive Landscape - The entry of major players like Alphabet and Microsoft into the quantum computing space poses a risk to the first-mover advantage of smaller quantum computing firms [14][19] - Alphabet's recent advancements in quantum processing units, such as Willow, demonstrate the competitive capabilities of established tech giants [17] - The financial stability of larger companies allows them to invest heavily in quantum computing, creating a challenging environment for smaller firms with uncertain funding [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett has identified Alphabet as a new favorite stock in the quantum computing sector, alongside his existing investment in Amazon, indicating a strategic shift in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio towards companies involved in advanced technologies [1][4][2]. Company Investments - Berkshire Hathaway has increased its investment in Alphabet by acquiring over 17.8 million Class A shares, valued at more than $5 billion, which is more than double its position in Amazon [4]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is developing a quantum computing chip called Ocelot, aimed at reducing costs related to quantum error correction, and offers cloud-based quantum computing services through its Amazon Braket platform [3]. Quantum Computing Advancements - Alphabet's Google Quantum AI is a leader in quantum computing, having achieved significant milestones, including a calculation that would take traditional supercomputers 10,000 years to complete in just 200 seconds [5]. - Google Quantum AI has also demonstrated a prototype of a logical qubit and advancements in quantum error correction, showcasing its potential in the quantum computing field [5]. Advertising Business Strength - Alphabet's advertising business generated $74.2 billion in revenue in the third quarter of 2025, highlighting its robust performance and attractiveness to investors [7]. - Buffett's investment in Alphabet is likely driven more by its strong advertising business rather than solely its quantum computing initiatives [6][8]. Future Prospects - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into Alphabet's operations, particularly in Google search and Google Cloud, is expected to enhance its market position [9][10]. - Alphabet's Waymo, a leader in the autonomous ride-hailing market, is also seen as a promising area for future growth [10]. - Quantum computing is anticipated to present significant opportunities for Alphabet in the long term, reinforcing its status as a key player in the technology sector [11].

Core Insights - Warren Buffett is preparing to step down from Berkshire Hathaway but has identified a new favorite in quantum computing stocks, which is Alphabet, not D-Wave Quantum or IonQ [1][5] - Prior to Q3 2025, Amazon was the only quantum computing stock in Berkshire's portfolio, but the conglomerate has now invested significantly in Alphabet [3][5] Company Investments - Berkshire Hathaway purchased over 17.8 million Class A shares of Alphabet, valued at more than $5 billion, which is more than double its investment in Amazon [5] - Alphabet's Google Quantum AI is a leader in quantum computing, having achieved significant milestones, including a calculation that would take supercomputers 10,000 years to complete in just 200 seconds [6] Business Focus - The investment in Alphabet is likely driven more by its robust advertising business rather than its quantum computing initiatives, as evidenced by the $74.2 billion revenue generated from advertising in Q3 2025 [8][9]

Core Insights - The rapid rise of quantum computing stocks is expected to be followed by a significant decline, indicating a potential bubble in the market [1][10][11] Market Performance - Quantum computing stocks have shown trailing-12-month returns of up to 3,170% as of October 31, with companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. leading the surge [2] - Current market capitalizations for these companies range from $3.7 billion for Quantum Computing Inc. to $21.7 billion for IonQ, despite a lack of supporting data for such high valuations [3] Technology and Use Cases - Quantum computing utilizes specialized computers based on quantum mechanics to solve complex problems beyond the capabilities of traditional computers [5] - Potential applications include enhancing AI algorithms, improving drug trial success rates, strengthening cybersecurity, refining weather forecasting, and optimizing investment portfolios [5] Investment Dynamics - The surge in quantum computing stocks has been fueled by potential partnerships and financing opportunities, including discussions of equity stakes by the Trump administration [7] - Major cloud computing services like Amazon's Braket and Microsoft's Azure Quantum are providing access to quantum computing resources, further legitimizing the technology [8] Market Sentiment - The phenomenon of "FOMO" (fear of missing out) is driving investor behavior, contributing to the rapid price increases of quantum computing stocks [9] - Historical trends suggest that every major technological advancement has experienced a bubble-bursting event, indicating that quantum computing may follow suit [12][15] Valuation Concerns - Current valuations of quantum computing stocks are unsustainable, with price-to-sales (P/S) ratios reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, where leading companies peaked at P/S ratios of 30 to 40 [16] - The S&P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio is currently at 41.20, suggesting that a market correction could disproportionately affect high-valuation stocks like those in quantum computing [19][20] Future Projections - Consensus sales projections for 2027 indicate that even with significant sales growth, existing valuations for quantum computing stocks cannot be justified [18]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential downturn for quantum computing stocks, highlighting that historical valuation metrics indicate a significant reversal may be imminent for companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. [1][4][18] Industry Overview - Quantum computing is emerging as a transformative technology, with applications across various sectors, including drug development and AI optimization [6][10]. - The technology is still in its infancy, and widespread commercialization is not yet evident, suggesting that it may take years for businesses to realize returns on investments in quantum computing [11]. Company Performance - Over the past year, IonQ's stock has increased by 270%, while Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have seen gains of 3,220%, 3,270%, and 1,340%, respectively [4]. - Current market capitalizations for these companies are significant, with IonQ at $21 billion and Rigetti at $14 billion [8][16]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is identified as a more relevant valuation metric for early-stage companies like those in quantum computing, as traditional price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are less applicable due to negative earnings [14]. - Historical data shows that leading companies in emerging technologies have peaked at P/S ratios between 31 and 43, while current P/S ratios for quantum computing stocks are projected to be much higher, ranging from 69 to 352 by 2027 [15][17][19]. - This suggests that the current valuations of quantum computing stocks are unsustainable, indicating a potential for significant price corrections in the future [18].

Core Insights - Warren Buffett has not publicly commented on quantum computing but has a notable investment in Amazon, which is involved in quantum computing [1][3] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) offers Amazon Braket, a service dedicated to quantum computing, allowing access to various quantum systems [4] - Amazon is heavily investing in its own quantum technology, including the development of a prototype quantum chip called Ocelot, which significantly reduces quantum error correction costs [5] Company and Industry Summary - Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway portfolio includes only one quantum computing stock, which is Amazon [3][6] - Amazon's involvement in quantum computing is not the primary reason for Buffett's investment; the decision to invest in Amazon was made by one of Berkshire's investment managers [5][6] - The development of the Ocelot chip by AWS is expected to accelerate the timeline for practical quantum computing by up to five years [5]