on 09-Oct-2025 Global Software Oracle Corp Rating Outperform Price Target ORCL 364.00 USD 9 October 2025 Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8506 mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Firoz Valliji, CFA +1 917 344 8316 firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Shelly Tang, CFA +1 917 344 8342 shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Oracle: Placing in perspective recent news articles and what to expect from the Financial Analyst Day The Oracle story has changed significantly over the last year as the company announced last October long term ...

12 September 2025 | 11:18AM PDT Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Updating Model and PT following F2Q26 Results ORCL 12m Price Target: $310.00 Price: $307.86 Upside: 0.7% We are raising our PT on Oracle to $310 but maintaining our Neutral rating following F2Q26 results. F2Q26 results came in below consensus on Revenue (-1%), Gross Profit (-3%), while OpM came in +60bps above; FCF was -123% vs. consensus, as CapEx came in +62% higher than expected. What stood out was the substantial revision to OCI revenues over the next ...

图片 | 来自网络 原创整理 | TOP创新区研究院，FTA Group 转载引用请注明出处。内容仅供交流学习，不做任何商业用途，不代表任何投资建议。 如有侵权请联系后台删除。 2025年9月10日，华尔街被甲骨文（NYSE: ORCL）震撼了： 其股价单日一度飙升逾40%，创下33年来最大涨幅。 讽刺的是，这份引爆狂热的2026财年Q1财报（截至2025年8月31日），在营收和盈利上竟略低于市场预期。 那么，究竟是什么魔法让投资者们对这份"失误"的报告如此着迷？ 在传统的美股七姐妹之外，甲骨文会成为潜在的"第八巨头"吗？ 无关紧要的失误 甲骨文2026财年第一季度业绩表面上看确实不尽如人意。公司报告营收149.3亿美元，同比增长12%，但低于150.4亿美元的共识预期；调整后每股收益 （EPS）为1.47美元，也比1.48美元的预测低一美分。 然而，这些微小的"不及预期"在市场强烈的看涨情绪前显得微不足道。投资者关注的焦点完全转移到了一个关键指标上： 剩余履约义务（RPO）。 1，RPO：未来收入的"定海神针" 财报显示，甲骨文总RPO同比飙升惊人的359%至4550亿美元。这一数字代表着公司已签订合同但尚 ...

Core Insights - Oracle reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 non-GAAP earnings of $1.47 per share, meeting estimates and increasing 6% year over year in USD [1][10] - Revenues rose 12% year over year to $14.9 billion, driven by significant AI cloud contracts [2][10] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from the Americas increased 15.4% year over year to $9.66 billion, accounting for 64.7% of total revenues [3] - Europe/Middle East/Africa revenues climbed 7.8% to $3.48 billion, contributing 23.3% of total revenues [3] - Asia Pacific revenues increased 4.5% to $1.78 billion, representing 11.9% of total revenues [3] Cloud Revenue Performance - Total cloud revenues surged 28% year over year to $7.2 billion, with cloud infrastructure consumption revenue up 57% [5][10] - Cloud application revenue was $3.8 billion, up 11% year over year [5] - Autonomous Database revenues increased 43% year over year [5] Operating Performance - Non-GAAP operating income was $6.2 billion, up 9% year over year [11] - Total operating expenses increased 14% year over year to $8.69 billion [11] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of August 31, 2025, Oracle had cash and cash equivalents of $11 billion [12] - Operating cash flow was $8.1 billion, up from $7.4 billion in the prior year [12] - Free cash flow was negative $362 million due to $8.5 billion in capital expenditures [12] Future Guidance - For Q2 fiscal 2026, Oracle expects total revenues to grow 12% to 14% in constant currency [15] - Cloud Infrastructure is projected to grow 77% to $18 billion in fiscal 2026 [16] - Capital expenditures are expected to increase to around $35 billion in fiscal 2026 [18]

Core Insights - Oracle is enhancing its hardware business by partnering with major cloud providers, allowing enterprises to utilize its database services within their preferred ecosystems, thereby reducing reliance on Oracle's own cloud [1][10] - Recent initiatives include the launch of Oracle Database@Google Cloud in Japan and Oracle Database@AWS, which are expected to drive hardware segment growth through increased sales of Exadata systems and related services [2][10] - Oracle is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, committing over $40 billion to acquire Nvidia chips and planning additional investments in data centers in Germany and the Netherlands [3][10] Hardware Business Expansion - Oracle's hardware revenues are projected to reach $3 billion in fiscal 2026, reflecting a 6.82% year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, indicating strong growth driven by partnerships [4] - The company faces significant competition in the hardware space from Hewlett-Packard and Dell Technologies, which offer advanced solutions that challenge Oracle's offerings [5][6][7] Competitive Landscape - Hewlett-Packard provides powerful hardware solutions for AI workloads, including ProLiant Gen11 servers and energy-efficient systems that compete with Oracle's Exadata [6] - Dell Technologies offers flexible alternatives to Exadata, such as PowerEdge servers and VxRail systems, which have attracted customers seeking cost savings and reduced licensing exposure [7] Financial Performance and Valuation - Oracle's shares have appreciated 47.3% year to date, underperforming the broader technology sector and the software industry [8] - The company is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiple of 30.15x, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 20.55x, indicating potential overvaluation [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Oracle's fiscal 2026 revenues is $66.57 billion, representing a 15.97% year-over-year growth, with earnings projected at $6.73 per share, suggesting an 11.61% increase from fiscal 2025 [14]

Core Insights - MongoDB (MDB) and Oracle (ORCL) are leading players in the database market, with MDB focusing on a developer-first, cloud-native NoSQL platform, while ORCL is known for its robust relational databases and multicloud capabilities [1][2] MongoDB (MDB) Overview - MDB is benefiting from the rising demand for AI-powered applications, with its flexible document model well-suited for unstructured data [3] - The acquisition of Voyage AI has enhanced MDB's AI capabilities, with the latest release, Voyage 3.5, improving embedding accuracy and reducing storage costs by over 80% [3] - MDB's platform integrates real-time data, search, and retrieval, simplifying processes for developers, as evidenced by its use at LG Uplus [4] - The company is expanding its partner ecosystem, recently integrating backup solutions with Rubrik and Cohesity, enhancing data protection for enterprise customers [5] - In the latest quarter, MDB reported revenues of $549 million, a 22% year-over-year increase, with Atlas revenues growing 26% and accounting for 72% of total revenues [6] Oracle (ORCL) Overview - ORCL is expanding its cloud database business with products like Autonomous Database and Oracle Database 23AI, enabling operations across multiple cloud platforms [7] - The company is focusing on AI-readiness by integrating vector search into its database stack, positioning its database as central to enterprise infrastructure [8] - In fiscal Q4 2025, ORCL's cloud database services grew 31% year-over-year, with Autonomous Database consumption revenues increasing by 47% [9] - However, ORCL faces challenges as legacy revenue streams weaken, with database license support growing only 7% in fiscal 2025 [9][11] - ORCL's capital spending reached $21.2 billion, resulting in negative free cash flow of $400 million, indicating financial strain [11] Valuation and Performance Comparison - MDB shares are trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 6.76X, which is lower than ORCL's 9.46X, suggesting a more attractive valuation for MDB [12] - Year-to-date, ORCL shares have increased by 38.9%, while MDB shares have decreased by 11.2%, indicating potential upside for MDB [15] Conclusion - MDB is expanding its cloud-native database platform with AI-ready features and increasing enterprise adoption, while ORCL's growth is hindered by legacy systems and high capital expenditures [18] - MDB's recent underperformance may present a better long-term investment opportunity compared to ORCL, which is facing challenges in its growth trajectory [18][19]

Core Insights - Oracle Corporation has reached a pivotal moment with the launch of Oracle Database@AWS, establishing itself as a key player in bridging traditional enterprise computing and AI-driven cloud infrastructure [1][4] - The stock has increased by 43% year-to-date, reflecting successful execution of its cloud transformation strategy, with a forward P/E ratio of 17.7x amid high growth expectations [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Oracle reported total revenues of $15.9 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, with cloud infrastructure revenue growth accelerating to 52% [2][9] - The company raised its fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting revenues exceeding $67 billion (16% growth) and cloud infrastructure growth surpassing 70% [2][8] - Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) backlog stands at $138 billion, providing significant revenue visibility [2][10] Strategic Developments - The Oracle Database@AWS launch is a strategic completion of Oracle's "infrastructure anywhere" vision, allowing for native Oracle database services within AWS data centers [4] - Key differentiators include zero-ETL integration capabilities and Oracle Database 23ai with AI Vector Search, enhancing customer experience [5] - The partnership with AWS completes Oracle's coverage across all major cloud providers, addressing the trend of enterprises using multiple cloud services [6] Growth Drivers - Oracle's cloud services revenues reached $6.7 billion in Q4 2025, up 27% year-over-year, with cloud infrastructure revenues at $3.0 billion [7] - The company anticipates cloud infrastructure growth exceeding 70% in fiscal 2026, indicating strong demand for its services [8] - Oracle's infrastructure expansion includes 47 new data centers under construction, reflecting high customer demand for cloud capacity [13] Competitive Positioning - Oracle's strategic focus on AI infrastructure positions it as a critical enabler for enterprise AI adoption, highlighted by a $30 billion annual cloud deal with OpenAI [11] - The introduction of over 300 new AI-focused features in Oracle Database 23ai allows for running AI workloads alongside traditional database operations [12] - Oracle's premium valuation is reflected in its three-year EV/EBITDA multiple of 28.93x, above the industry average of 20.12x [14] Market Performance - Oracle shares have gained 40.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 7% [17] - The company is viewed as a compelling long-term investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to AI infrastructure and enterprise cloud transformation [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Oracle Corp. (ORCL) with a price target raised to $195 from $145, reflecting a potential upside of 10.6% from the current price of $176.38 [1]. Core Insights - Oracle's strong F4Q results exceeded consensus expectations in revenue (+2%) and gross profit (+1%), although free cash flow (FCF) was significantly below expectations due to a 140% increase in capital expenditures [1]. - The company anticipates a 100 basis points increase in FY26 revenue guidance, with a solid performance in remaining performance obligations (RPO), which grew 41% year-over-year [1]. - Oracle's cloud infrastructure (IaaS) is expected to grow over 70% in FY26, driven by a 62% increase in OCI consumption, indicating strong demand [1]. - The company aims to double its RPO in FY26, excluding Stargate contributions, reflecting a robust OCI pipeline [1]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding the ambitious growth targets for both IaaS and SaaS, which may be challenging to achieve given the current macroeconomic constraints [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for Oracle are updated to $57.4 billion for FY25, $67.1 billion for FY26, $80.6 billion for FY27, and $92.8 billion for FY28 [3]. - EBITDA is projected to grow from $31.2 billion in FY25 to $54.5 billion in FY28, indicating a strong upward trend [3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditures, projected at approximately $25 billion for FY26, raising questions about its impact on future earnings [1][15]. Market Position and Strategy - Oracle is positioned as a strong player in the IaaS market, gaining traction with major customers like Uber and TikTok, despite being a distant fourth compared to hyperscalers [15]. - The company is also focusing on its strategic back-office applications, which are experiencing steady growth, particularly through its NetSuite and Fusion ERP offerings [15]. - Long-term targets include achieving over $104 billion in revenue by FY29, with a commitment to AI investments underpinning this growth [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 26.0 for FY25, decreasing to 17.9 by FY28, indicating a potential for improved valuation as earnings grow [9]. - Free cash flow yield is projected to improve from negative in FY25 to 0.9% by FY28, reflecting a recovery in cash generation capabilities [9]. - The report notes that Oracle's valuation at 22x FY27 P/E reflects a balanced risk-reward scenario until further evidence of growth materializes [15].

Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow and Oracle are positioned to benefit from the growing digital transformation market, which is projected to reach approximately $4 trillion by 2027, with a CAGR of 16.2% from 2022 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ServiceNow shares have decreased by 7.7% year to date, while Oracle shares have dropped by 10.4% due to a tech sell-off influenced by higher tariffs and a challenging macroeconomic environment [2] - ServiceNow's Yokohama release introduces new AI agents across various domains, enhancing productivity and workflow efficiency [5] - ServiceNow's customer base has expanded, with 508 customers having more than $5 million in annual contract value (ACV), representing a 20% year-over-year growth [7] - ServiceNow expects second-quarter subscription revenues to be between $3.03 billion and $3.035 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 19% to 19.5% [8] - Oracle anticipates total revenue growth of 9-11% year over year for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with cloud revenues expected to grow by 24-28% at constant currency [11] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - ServiceNow has established partnerships with major companies like NVIDIA, Amazon, and Vodafone to enhance its AI capabilities and service management solutions [6][10] - Oracle's partnerships with companies such as OpenAI and NVIDIA are driving its cloud business momentum, particularly with the launch of AI Agent Studio [9][10] Group 3: Earnings Estimates and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ServiceNow's 2025 earnings is $16.48 per share, reflecting an 18.39% increase over fiscal 2024, while Oracle's estimate has declined to $6.03 per share, suggesting 8.45% growth [12] - ServiceNow has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 6.61%, compared to Oracle's surprise of 0.83% [13] - In terms of valuation, Oracle shares are trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 6.47X, which is lower than ServiceNow's 14.62X, indicating that Oracle may be a cheaper option [14] Group 4: Market Position and Outlook - Both companies are benefiting from strong demand for digital transformation despite macroeconomic challenges and tariff concerns [17] - ServiceNow's strong portfolio and partner base are highlighted as advantages over Oracle, which faces stiff competition and security issues in the cloud computing market [17]