Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **AI Supply Chain** within the **semiconductor industry**, particularly highlighting the performance and projections for major companies involved in AI semiconductors, including **Google**, **Nvidia**, **Broadcom**, **TSMC**, and others [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Google's Capital Expenditure (Capex) Increase**: - Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure budget to **US$85 billion** from **US$75 billion**, indicating strong ongoing demand for AI infrastructure [2]. - The company processes over **980 trillion tokens monthly**, which has doubled from **480 trillion** in May, reflecting robust AI demand [2]. 2. **AI Semiconductor Demand**: - The demand for AI semiconductors remains strong, with a positive outlook for both **US Semiconductors** and **Greater China Semiconductors** [2]. - The **H20 chip** shipments are expected to resume, with a total of **1 million units** anticipated from previous inventory and new production [3]. 3. **TSMC's CoWoS Capacity Allocation**: - TSMC's 2026 CoWoS capacity is projected to grow by **40%-50%**, driven by increasing demand for cloud AI semiconductors [4]. - The forecast for CoWoS-S consumption at TSMC for **AMD** has been raised from **50k to 60k units** in 2025, indicating expected recurring orders for its MI308 in the Chinese market [3]. 4. **Nvidia's CoWoS Booking**: - Nvidia's CoWoS-L booking for 2026 is projected at **510k units**, a **31% year-over-year increase**, implying a total of **5.4 million chips** [8]. - The company is also expected to see **CoWoS-R booking** of around **60k units** for various CPU projects [11]. 5. **Broadcom's CoWoS Allocation**: - Broadcom has booked approximately **145k CoWoS wafers** at TSMC, primarily for projects with Google, Meta, and OpenAI [11]. 6. **Overall AI Capex Trends**: - The top four US hyperscalers are expected to generate **US$550 billion** in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing investments in AI-related data centers [37]. - The average AI capex/EBITDA ratio is projected to be around **50%** in 2025, indicating strong financial capacity for further investments [38]. Additional Important Insights - **Depreciation Trends**: Depreciation as a percentage of total expenses for data center customers has risen significantly, expected to reach **10-14%** in 2025 due to increased capex [38]. - **Cloud Capex Growth**: The cloud capex tracker indicates a **43% year-over-year growth** in 2025, up from a previous forecast of **39%** [45]. - **AI Semiconductor Revenue**: AI semiconductors are projected to account for a significant portion of TSMC's revenue, with estimates suggesting **25%** of total revenue in 2025 [67]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the AI semiconductor industry.