Vi e w p o i n t | 09 Jan 2026 08:02:58 ET │ 49 pages Taiwan Semiconductors AI Chip Testing - The Hidden Infrastructure Behind the Age of Advanced Packaging; Initiate on MPI at Buy/High Risk CITI'S TAKE Leading-edge advanced packaging has become essential for AI chips as system performance is now determined by interconnect, memory bandwidth, and power efficiency rather than transistor scaling alone. Advanced packaging enables large AI dies to overcome reticle limits, integrate multiple compute, I/O dies and ...

智通财经APP获悉，当地时间1月4日，高盛将台积电(TSM.US)的目标价从1720元新台币上调至2330元 新台币，同时维持"强力买入"评级。该公司已将其2026年和2027年的盈利预期上调了高达15%，这得益 于人工智能(AI)领域的"多年增长引擎"。据分析师布鲁斯·卢称，对AI芯片的需求呈指数级增长，这意味 着芯片需求将超过供应。 卢预计，台积电在2026年至2028年期间将投入超过1500亿美元用于资本支出，以满足激增的需求，其中 包括2027年的540亿美元，届时新的晶圆厂将投入运营。 强劲的需求还预计将使台积电的3纳米/5纳米晶圆产能在2027年之前持续紧张。该公司预计2026年营收 增长30%，2027年增长28%，高于此前每年22%的预期。 尽管资本支出增加且海外业务扩张，但2026年至2028年期间的毛利率仍有望超过60%。稳定的生产率提 升以及海外工厂有限的稀释效应将推动这一增长。 该公司进一步上调了相关预测数据，将2026年和2027年的CoWoS出货量预期分别提升至118.5万片与 219.5万片晶圆，同时把CoWoS产能预期也相应调高至127.5万片与231万片晶圆。此次预测的上调， ...

ab Global Research 5 January 2026 Asia Semiconductor Insight Top 10 themes for 2026 What is the main focus for Asia's logic semi firms in 2026? Robust cloud AI demand drove most of the 16% YoY growth for non-memory semis sales in 2025E. We forecast further growth acceleration to 25% YoY in 2026 with the proliferation of cloud AI applications, ramp of next-generation cloud accelerators with higher silicon content, and a mild restocking cycle. This report dives into the major themes we see for 2026 for Asia's ...

华尔街顶级投行正在告诉市场一个简单粗暴的事实：AI硬件的超级周期才刚刚开始，而台积电是这场 盛宴中不可撼动的"收费站"。 据追风交易台，摩根大通与野村证券在1月7日发布的最新研报中，不约而同地大幅上调了台积电的目标 价。摩根大通将目标价上调至2,100新台币，野村更是看高至2,135新台币。 这背后的逻辑简单而粗暴：产能极度紧缺，需求深不见底。AI数据中心的需求正在迫使台积电进入一 个新的结构性增长阶段。摩根大通直言，2026年台积电美元营收将暴增30%，并在2027年继续保持20% 以上的增速。野村则指出，受限于严重的供应短缺，台积电拥有极强的定价权，并将目标价直接看高至 2135新台币。 对于投资者而言，这意味着什么？摩根大通和野村证券认为： 2026年营收锁定30%增长，AI成为绝对主引擎 摩根大通预测，2026年将是台积电又一个强劲的增长年，美元营收同比增长将达到30%，而2027年也将 维持20%以上的增速。这一增长背后的核心驱动力毫无疑问是数据中心AI需求。 先进制程统治力稳固：N2爬坡速度惊人，N3需求爆发 尽管市场上有关于英特尔和三星在先进制程上竞争的杂音，但摩根大通明确指出，在N2/A16节 ...

摩根大通将2026年和2027年的CoWoS产能预测分别上调8%和13%，其中，台积电的CoWoS产能预计将在2026年底达到11.5万片晶圆/月，产能的持 续扩张将为TPU出货增长提供坚实支撑。 该行的Gokul Hariharan分析师团队发布最新研报， 将2026年和2027年的CoWoS产能预测分别上调8%和13%，以反映台积电在2026年下半年和2027 年的新增产能建设。台积电的CoWoS产能预计将在2026年底达到11.5万片晶圆/月，外部供应商（主要是日月光和Amkor）将额外提供1.2万至1.5万片 晶圆/月的产能。这是该行三个月内第二次上调CoWoS产能预测。 摩根大通指出， 产能增量主要来自ASIC供应链的需求上升。 台积电的扩产重点集中在CoWoS-L技术，部分65纳米前端产能（Fab 14和Fab12）开始 用于LSI/中介层制造，而CoWoS-S供应将基本保持平稳，CoWoS-R则更多外包给日月光等封测厂。 TPU需求强劲推动产能预测上调 摩根大通基于后端和前端供应链的强劲需求信号，再次上调谷歌TPU出货预期。分析师预计2026年和2027年TPU出货量将分别达到370万颗和500 ...

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Revenue Growth Projections - TSMC is expected to achieve **30% USD revenue growth in 2026**, driven by increased demand for N3 technology, a stronger ramp of N2, and growth in advanced packaging [1][11] - Revenue growth is projected to continue at **20+% in 2027**, supported by tight capacity in leading-edge nodes and ongoing investments in AI [1][11] Gross Margins and Financial Performance - Gross Margins (GMs) are anticipated to remain around **60% through 2026**, aided by a favorable product mix and higher yields from N3 technology [1][11][36] - GMs are expected to be elevated in **1H26** due to high demand for expedited wafer orders, which carry a significant price premium [1][36] Capacity Expansion and Capital Expenditure - TSMC is entering a **capex upcycle**, with expected capital expenditures of **$48 billion in 2026** and **$55 billion in 2027**, focusing on N2, N3, and US fab expansions [1][51] - N3 capacity is projected to reach **147k wafers per month by the end of 2026**, with significant contributions from capacity conversions and new builds [1][19][57] Datacenter AI Revenue Growth - Datacenter AI revenue is forecasted to grow at a **57% CAGR from 2024 to 2029**, driven by strong demand for GPUs and ASICs, larger die sizes, and higher wafer ASPs [1][29] - By 2029, Datacenter AI could represent over **40% of TSMC's total revenues**, up from mid-teens in 2024 [1][31] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - TSMC is expected to maintain a **95% market share in AI accelerators** during the N2 era, despite competition from Intel and Samsung [1][49] - The company is not experiencing any significant share loss in leading-edge technology, with strong momentum in N2 tapeouts [1][42][49] Risks and Challenges - Key upside risks include stronger-than-expected gross margins and continued demand for N2 and N3 technologies [1] - Downside risks involve potential weakness in AI capital expenditures and increasing competition from Intel [1][11] Upcoming Guidance and Expectations - For **1Q26**, TSMC is expected to guide for flattish revenues quarter-over-quarter, with GMs projected to remain in the **61-63% range** [1][70] - The company will announce its **4Q25 results** on January 15, with expectations for revenues to exceed guidance [1][69] Additional Important Insights - Non-wafer revenues are expected to grow by **44% and 29% in 2026 and 2027**, respectively, driven by CoWoS expansion and increased adoption of advanced packaging technologies [1][21] - TSMC's aggressive capacity expansion plans are in response to strong demand from major clients like NVDA and Apple, indicating robust future growth potential [1][51][68]

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on Semiconductor Industry Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is currently viewed as attractive, particularly in the context of AI technology and its applications in various sectors [3][18] - The focus is on AI semiconductors, with both logic and memory segments being highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [7][21] Core Insights - **Top Investment Picks**: - AI: TSMC (Top Pick), SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, AllRing - Memory: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix - Non-AI: Realtek, USI for smartphone/glasses, NAURA Tech, AMEC for China WFE [7] - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - **Tech Inflation**: Rising costs in wafer, OSAT, and memory are expected to create margin pressures for chip designers into 2026 [7] - **AI Cannibalization**: AI is anticipated to replace some human jobs, leading to demand weakness in certain sectors. The semiconductor supply chain is prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI [7] - **Tech Diffusion**: The demand for AI semiconductors is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, impacting various verticals like robotics and AI glasses [7] - **China AI Demand**: The introduction of DeepSeek is expected to trigger demand for inferencing AI, although there are concerns about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [7] Financial Metrics and Valuation - **Valuation Comparison**: - TSMC's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.7 in 2025 to 19.4 in 2026, with EPS growth expected at 44% in 2025 and 32% in 2026 [8] - UMC's P/E ratio is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease in EPS growth from -12% in 2025 to 2% in 2026 [8] - SMIC shows a significant increase in ROAE from 4% in 2025 to 9% in 2026, indicating potential recovery [8] Market Dynamics - **Semi Cycle**: The logic semi foundry utilization is currently at 70-80% in the first half of 2026, indicating that the market is still recovering [13] - **Non-AI Semi Growth**: Excluding NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue, non-AI semiconductor growth was slow at only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [14] - **Inventory Trends**: A decrease in inventory days historically correlates with an increase in the semiconductor stock index, suggesting a potential positive outlook for the sector [17] Additional Insights - **Memory Prices**: Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, reinforcing the attractive view on Greater China technology semiconductors [18] - **Investment Thesis**: Regardless of whether AI GPU or AI ASIC technologies prevail, TSMC is positioned to benefit as a major foundry supplier [21] - **Capex Trends**: TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to be between $43 billion and $55 billion for 2026, reflecting ongoing investments in AI semiconductor capabilities [27] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in the AI segment, presents significant investment opportunities. Key players like TSMC and memory manufacturers are expected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and market dynamics. Investors should closely monitor the evolving landscape, including supply chain developments and pricing trends, to capitalize on potential growth.

TSMC (2330.TW) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Ticker**: 2330.TW - **Market Cap**: NT$41.1 trillion / $1.3 trillion - **Current Price**: NT$1,585.00 - **12-Month Price Target**: NT$2,330.00 (47% upside) [1] Key Industry Insights - **AI as Growth Driver**: AI is identified as a multi-year growth engine for TSMC, with silicon demand expected to outpace supply through 2027 due to exponential growth in token consumption [2][20] - **Capacity Tightness**: Anticipated capacity tightness will persist, leading to accelerated revenue and capital expenditures (capex) [2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: TSMC's revenue is projected to grow by 30% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, up from previous estimates of 22% for both years [2][20] - **Capex Forecast**: Total capex is expected to exceed US$150 billion from 2026 to 2028, with 2026E capex raised to US$46 billion and 2027E capex to US$54 billion [3][21] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: Projected GM for 2026 and 2027 is now 60.4% and 60.6%, respectively, indicating structural improvement despite higher capex [4][22] Earnings Estimates - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to reach NT$82.56 in 2026 and NT$105.93 in 2027, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [6][40] - **EBITDA Growth**: EBITDA is projected to grow significantly, with 2026E EBITDA at NT$3,368.47 million and 2027E at NT$4,324.30 million [6][18] Capacity and Technology Developments - **Node Transition**: The transition from 5nm to 3nm nodes is expected to be fully loaded in 2026/2027, driven by AI GPU and ASIC demand [20] - **CoWoS Capacity**: CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity is forecasted to reach 1,275k wafers in 2026 and 2,310k wafers in 2027, representing significant year-over-year growth [25][39] Market Dynamics - **Investor Concerns**: Key debates include the sustainability of 60% GM, the extent of 3nm expansion, and the timing of capex increases [26] - **Geopolitical Stability**: A stable geopolitical environment is deemed necessary to prevent valuation discounts and support earnings visibility [27] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: TSMC is rated as a "Buy" with a revised price target of NT$2,330, supported by strong AI demand, ongoing productivity improvements, and a favorable capex outlook [1][27]

2 January 2026 Price Target Change Asia Semiconductors and Global Mamory Asia Semiconductors & Global Memory: 2026 is still all about AI Mark Li +852 2123 2645 mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA +852 2123 2623 edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA +852 2123 2669 yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com 2026 is still about AI. Sufficient visibility shows that 2026 demand for AI accelerators (XPU) is so strong that many supplies (e.g. CoWoS, memory, logic wafer) struggle to keep up. But unfortunately 2026 marks the ...

Quick Read Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) controls advanced packaging capacity that determines which AI chipmakers can scale production. Google reportedly cut its 2026 TPU production target from 4 million to 3 million units due to limited access to Taiwan Semiconductor’s CoWoS packaging. Nvidia secured over half of Taiwan Semiconductor’s CoWoS capacity through 2027. If you’re thinking about retiring or know someone who is, there are three quick questions causing many Americans to realize th ...