证券研究报告 超威半导体(AMD) (AMD US) 客户集中度和订单节奏成焦点 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 300.00 何翩翩 研究员 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 +(852) 3658 6000 易楚妍 联系人 yichuyan@htsc.com SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 +(86) 21 2897 2228 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 3 日) | 242.11 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 394,165 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (美元百万) | 10,324 | | 52 周价格范围 (美元) | 76.48-267.08 | 股价走势图 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (美元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The rising prices of storage chips are significantly impacting the AI chip market, particularly affecting companies like Qualcomm and MediaTek, which are closely tied to the mobile sector [1][6] - Major AI chip manufacturers, including AMD and Arm, have reported record earnings, but concerns about storage chip prices and their effects on future performance remain prevalent [2][3][4] Group 1: AMD Performance - AMD reported record revenue of $10.3 billion for Q4 FY2025, a 34% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand in data center, client, and gaming segments [2] - The data center segment achieved a record revenue of $5.4 billion, up 39% year-over-year, primarily due to the demand for AMD EPYC processors and increased shipments of Instinct GPUs [2] - AMD's CEO highlighted the importance of the Chinese market, noting revenue from the MI308 product and pending approval for the MI325 product [3] Group 2: Arm Performance - Arm achieved record revenue of $1.224 billion for Q3 FY2026, a 26% year-over-year increase, with royalty revenue rising 27% and license revenue increasing by 25% [4] - The growth in Arm's revenue is attributed to higher royalty rates for chips and increased usage of Arm architecture in data centers [4] - Arm is expanding its product line to increase revenue outside the mobile sector, focusing on cloud, automotive, and IoT markets [10] Group 3: Qualcomm Performance - Qualcomm reported revenue of $12.3 billion for Q1 FY2026, a 5% year-over-year increase, with semiconductor revenue reaching $10.6 billion [5] - The automotive segment achieved record revenue of $1.1 billion, up 15% year-over-year, while IoT revenue was $1.7 billion, up 9% [5] - Qualcomm's CEO acknowledged challenges in the mobile market due to storage supply constraints but remains optimistic about high-end smartphone demand [6][7] Group 4: MediaTek Insights - MediaTek's CEO indicated that rising memory and BOM costs are expected to negatively impact overall smartphone demand in 2026 [8] - The CFO noted that flagship models are seeing higher chip content, leading to increased average selling prices, but overall shipment volumes may face pressure [8] - MediaTek is also focusing on strengthening its non-smartphone business, with increasing revenue from data centers [9] Group 5: Industry Challenges - The ongoing shortage and rising prices of storage chips, particularly DRAM, are expected to affect the mobile industry significantly, with companies adjusting production plans accordingly [6][7] - OEMs, especially in China, are cautiously reducing chip inventory, which may reflect in future earnings guidance [7] - The mobile market is anticipated to prioritize high-end products due to lower price sensitivity among consumers in that segment [7]

Despite another robust quarterly performance, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) finds itself in an uncomfortable backdrop. Morgan Stanley just cut its AMD stock price target to $255 from $260 after earnings, while keeping an equal-weight rating. Despite the cut, following AMD’s post-earnings sell-off, it’s currently trading around $200, implying a superb 28% upside. AMD’s earnings couldn’t have landed at a worse time, as its post-earnings swoon got caught in the middle of a broader AI-tech de-risking. Softw ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% AMD US 标普500 股份资料 | 52周高位 (美元) | 264.33 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (美元) | 78.21 | | 市值 (百万美元) | 325,917.33 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 106.02 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (6.52) | | 200天平均价 (美元) | 203.79 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 5 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 200.19 | 美元 275.00 | +37.4% | | | 超微半导体 (AMD US) | | | | | | 关注数据中心执行落地；维持买入 童钰枫 Carrie.Tong@bocomg ...

Eli Lilly posted Q4 revenue and EPS well above estimates, driven by strong demand for its weight-loss treatments, sending shares up 9.5%.Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) shares jumped after Q2 results and forward guidance exceeded expectations, reflecting robust demand for AI-focused infrastructure hardware.Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO) reported strong Q3 2026 revenue and raised its full-year outlook, yet shares fell over 3% following the earnings release.Uber Technologies Inc (UBER)’s Q4 revenue ...

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results, raising questions about the sustainability of near-term AI revenue linked to China [1] Financial Performance - AMD's revenue reached $10.27 billion, surpassing the Street's estimate of $9.67 billion, with adjusted earnings at $1.53 per share, exceeding the consensus forecast of $1.32 [2] - Total revenue increased by 34% year over year, indicating broad-based strength across core businesses [2] Segment Performance - The Data Center segment was the primary growth driver, with revenue rising 39% year over year to $5.4 billion [3] - Client and Gaming revenue increased by 37% to $3.9 billion, while Embedded revenue grew by 3% to $950 million [3] - For the upcoming quarter, AMD forecasts revenue of approximately $9.8 billion, including about $100 million from MI308 accelerator sales to China, which is above the analyst consensus of $9.39 billion [3] Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that AMD's revenue exceeded expectations mainly due to strength in the Data Center and Client segments, but highlighted that a significant portion of the upside was driven by MI308 sales to China, which may not be repeatable [4] - AMD's next-generation MI450 and Helios platforms are expected to ramp up in the third quarter of 2026, with significant volumes anticipated in the fourth quarter [5] - Analysts expressed caution regarding margins and operating leverage, as well as potential risks related to AI expectations [6]

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) experienced a significant stock decline of 17%, resulting in a loss of over $30 billion in market value, marking its worst day since 2017 [1] Group 1: Q4 Performance - AMD reported a record revenue of $10.3 billion for Q4, but the quality of this performance and future guidance raised concerns among investors [1] - A notable portion of the revenue increase was attributed to a one-time surge in sales to China, totaling $390 million, which analysts argue masked underlying growth trends in AI data centers [2][3] Group 2: Guidance and Market Reaction - AMD's guidance for Q1 2026 projected a revenue midpoint of $9.8 billion, indicating a sequential decline from Q4, which contrasted with the expectations set by competitors like Nvidia [4] - The company acknowledged a conservative forecast for future sales in China, stating no additional revenue beyond $100 million was anticipated due to the dynamic market situation [5]

Core Viewpoint - AMD's fourth-quarter performance and guidance were better than expected, but uncertainties remain, leading to a significant drop in stock price [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - AMD reported approximately $400 million in unexpected MI308 revenue from the Chinese market in Q4, which supported its performance [1] - The company expects only about $100 million in MI308 revenue from China in Q1, causing confusion in the market [1] - Despite a strong overall outlook, AMD's performance did not fully reflect expectations for higher sales and optimized product structure, contributing to stock sell-off [1] Group 2: Analyst Opinions - Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson maintains an "outperform" rating with a target price of $290, citing the need for better performance metrics [1] - Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore expressed surprise at the stock's decline post-earnings, noting that the performance numbers were solid and new product signals were positive [2] - Morgan Stanley's Moore also highlighted that AMD achieved double-digit growth in server business during a typically weak Q1, indicating strong demand [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - AMD's CEO and CFO explained that the $400 million revenue from China was due to a license approved by the Trump administration, with orders formed in early 2025 [2] - The company is cautious about predicting additional revenue from China due to rapidly changing policy environments [2] - AMD's management emphasized that the development of MI455/Helios products is progressing smoothly, with ongoing customer testing [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock futures are mixed following a tech-led sell-off, particularly affecting software stocks due to fears of AI disruption [1][5] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Wong dismissed concerns about AI replacing software, calling such ideas illogical [1][6] - Investors are rotating out of risk assets, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $73,000, marking a 14% decline since the start of the year and a 40% drop from its record high in October [3][4] Group 2: Earnings Highlights - AMD reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates, but its first-quarter forecast disappointed investors, leading to a decline in its stock [2][15] - Eli Lilly projected a significant sales increase of up to 27% this year, reaching $83 billion, driven by its diabetes and obesity drugs [8][9] - Uber announced a new CFO amid disappointing earnings forecasts, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be lower than analysts' expectations [10][11] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Chipotle's earnings report indicated flat comparable sales for the year, with plans to open 370 new stores to improve performance after a 39% stock decline last year [12][13] - Analysts noted that AMD's strong revenue included $390 million from China, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this revenue [17][19] - The upcoming launch of AMD's Helios system is anticipated to close the performance gap with Nvidia, with significant volumes expected in the fourth quarter [22][25] Group 4: Broader Industry Trends - The AI trade is experiencing reassessment, with concerns about the impact of AI on software businesses leading to significant stock declines [48][49] - Analysts suggest that the selling in the software sector may be overdone, indicating potential for recovery as companies adapt to AI technologies [49][50] - The semiconductor industry is under pressure, with high expectations for companies like Nvidia and Broadcom to meet market demands [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $10.27 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a GAAP net profit of $1.511 billion, up 213% year-on-year [2]. - The data center business remains robust, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $5.38 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates continued growth in this segment, projecting a revenue growth rate exceeding 60% over the next 3-5 years [3]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be around $9.8 billion, reflecting a 32% year-on-year increase but a 5% decrease quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to seasonal factors in consumer electronics [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Review - For Q4 2025, the company achieved a GAAP gross margin of 54% and a Non-GAAP gross margin of 57%. The Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was $2.519 billion, a 42% increase year-on-year [2]. Business Analysis - The company forecasts that both data center GPU and CPU revenues will grow quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by strong demand for data center CPUs. The company also expects significant revenue from the MI400 series products in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The company is optimistic about the CPU market, anticipating high double-digit growth in 2026, driven by the demand for high-performance CPUs for AI workloads [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve GAAP net profits of $7.715 billion, $10.970 billion, and $14.377 billion for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [4].