July 6, 2025 08:00 PM GMT Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific Cloud Semis: Brighter Outlook Ahead With more clarity on Rubin architecture and ongoing ASIC growth in 2026, cloud semis could grow further in 2026. The near-term outlook remains positive for non-rack servers. We reiterate OW on Aspeed and Montage, and raise our Aspeed PT to NT$6100. Key Takeaways 2026 GPU server outlook turning more clear: Post our cloud semis upgrade (link), the key pushback has been the 2026 cloud capex outlook. It rem ...

Group 1: ASIC Chip Market Outlook - Bank of America reports strong and sustained growth in the ASIC chip supply chain due to widespread adoption of AI ASICs by CSPs [1] - Despite extended project cycles, the demand for current generation products has created a historical super demand cycle for the global ASIC supply chain [1] - Google and Amazon are expected to maintain annual ASIC chip production above 1 million units, with Meta and Microsoft gradually catching up [1] Group 2: MPl's Growth and Market Position - MPl, a key supplier of probe cards for ASIC chips, is benefiting from strong customer demand, with MEMS probe card capacity expected to expand from 600,000 units per month to nearly 1 million by Q3 2025 [1][2] - The target price for MPl has been raised to NT$1050 based on a projected P/E ratio of 28 times for 2026 [2] Group 3: Aspeed's Business Performance - Aspeed is showing strong performance in its BMC business, with the AST2700 expected to be adopted by the Rubin platform, leading to reduced competitive pressure [2] - Earnings per share estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 5% and 12% respectively, with the target price increased to NT$6250 [2][3] - Aspeed's revenue is projected to reach NT$2.2 billion in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 66% [3] Group 4: Alchip's Opportunities and Risks - Alchip is seeing increased collaboration opportunities with key customers as CSP projects advance, with a higher likelihood of mass production for Trainium 3 [4] - The target price for Alchip has been raised to NT$3900 based on a rolling valuation period extending to mid-2027 [4] - Upward risks for Alchip include faster mass production of non-AWS projects and improved profit margins due to relaxed restrictions on China [4]

Accessible version Semiconductors - Asia-Pacific Reflecting the upside from ASICs; raise PO on Aspeed, MPI and WT Micro Price Objective Change AI ASIC benefits CCL and also some S/M-cap semis We published a (see report) CCL deep-dive to discuss the dynamics in high-end market, where we flag 1) the importance of integrating different materials from different suppliers; and 2) a significant demand boost, thanks to the rise of AI ASICs. In conjunction with the CCL sector report and our PO increases on EMC and ...

大摩闭门会- 半导体行业周期和前景 DDR4 内存和 AI 云端 半导体供应链 20250613 摘要 DDR4 价格上涨趋势预计在 2025 年四季度及 2026 年上半年减弱， DDR5 环比涨幅预计为 3%至 8%，主要受三星退出产能和 DDR5 需求 替代影响。投资者需关注 DDR4 与 DDR5 价差变化，现货市场价差已小 于 10%，合约价格差约 30%，预计未来将进一步缩小。 存储周期显示，DRAM 价格同比涨幅将在 2025 年四季度达到顶点，但 渠道库存水平较高，尤其是 PC 和服务器客户。短期内存储股票可能受 益，通常在 DRAM 价格见顶前一个季度左右见顶，即 2025 年三季度。 但宏观经济和 HBM 竞争格局变化带来不确定性。 合肥长鑫退出 16 Gigabit DDR 产品线，转向 DDR5 生产，奈亚科无法 有效填补市场空缺，因其 16 Gigabit DDR5 良率和产出不佳。建议关 注 Winbond 和 Giga Device 在 Niche memory 领域的表现， Winbond 有 Wafer on Wafer 技术，Giga Device 受益于合肥长鑫产 能资源 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Aspeed Technology Inc to a Buy rating from Neutral, with a new price target of NT$5,000, up from NT$3,500 [4][6]. Core Insights - Aspeed's growth is expected to be driven by both AI and traditional servers, with significant increases in baseboard management controller (BMC) demand projected [12][9]. - The demand for BMCs from AI servers is forecasted to rise by 81% to 4.3 million units in 2025 and by 59% to 6.8 million units in 2026, representing 26% and 36% of total BMC shipments, respectively [12][19]. - Traditional server BMC shipments are estimated to reach approximately 94% of end market units in 2024 and 100% in 2025, aligning with a healthy run rate [21][2]. Summary by Sections Market Opportunity - Aspeed is positioned to benefit from a substantial increase in content per server, with BMC prices expected to rise from US$12-13 in 2024 to US$40-50 or higher by 2026, driven by new product launches [3][25]. - The introduction of I/O expanders and mini BMCs is anticipated to further enhance revenue potential [25][29]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 1% and 15% respectively, reflecting stronger BMC volume growth and content expansion [33]. - The report estimates revenues of NT$7,980 million for 2025 and NT$9,955 million for 2026, with net earnings expected to reach NT$3,344 million and NT$4,203 million respectively [5][33]. Valuation Metrics - The new price target of NT$5,000 is based on a 45x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting a stronger long-term earnings CAGR forecast of 25% [4][6]. - Aspeed's average PE from mid-2023 to now is noted to be 52x, indicating potential for re-rating as AI server demand expands [4][11]. Competitive Position - Aspeed is expected to maintain its dominant market share of over 70% in server BMCs due to product migration to newer platforms and an expanding product portfolio [9][21]. - The company has adopted a proactive strategy to build inventory for hyperscalers, which is expected to enhance customer relationships and streamline inventory management [23][21].

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, which includes significant changes advocated by President Trump, creating potential investment opportunities, particularly for Lockheed Martin [1][3] - The bill aims to make individual tax cuts permanent and includes controversial Medicaid changes, but the most relevant aspect for Lockheed Martin is the funding for the Golden Dome missile defense system [3][4] - The Golden Dome is designed to be a missile defense system similar to Israel's Iron Dome, with President Trump stating it could be completed within three years and capable of intercepting missiles globally [4][5] Group 2 - Lockheed Martin is positioning itself as a key contractor for the Golden Dome project, highlighting its expertise in missile defense systems, particularly through its work on the Command Control Battle Management Communications (C2BMC) [5][6] - The company emphasizes the need for proven technology and capabilities in missile defense, stating that it is prepared to collaborate with other industry leaders to ensure the project's success [6] - While Lockheed Martin presents a strong case for involvement, the passage of the bill in the Senate remains uncertain, and even if passed, there is no guarantee of a federal contract for the Golden Dome system [7][8] Group 3 - The initial funding allocated for the Golden Dome system is $25 billion, with the total estimated cost projected to be around $175 billion, although some experts suggest it could be higher [8][9] - If Lockheed Martin secures a major contract for the Golden Dome, it could serve as a significant catalyst for the company's stock performance [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese medical device industry is focusing on technological breakthroughs and practical applications to navigate the complex global political and economic landscape, as discussed at the 91st China International Medical Equipment Fair (CMEF) [2] Group 1: Industry Trends and Innovations - Companies are leveraging AI technology to enhance product competitiveness and are seizing opportunities from domestic consumption promotion initiatives [3] - The exhibition showcased a wide range of digital products and AI innovations, indicating a shift towards intelligent technology and ecosystem collaboration [3] - The introduction of national policies like "national subsidies" and "trade-in for new consumption" has significantly boosted domestic sales of medical devices [4][8] Group 2: Company Performance and Market Position - The brand "瑞迈特" under the company has achieved a global market share of 12.4% in 2023, ranking second globally, and holds a 30.6% share in the domestic market, leading the sector [6] - The company's overseas revenue reached 219 million yuan, accounting for 57.20% of total revenue, while domestic revenue was 164 million yuan, making up 42.80% [6] - The company perceives the domestic market as having stronger certainty compared to overseas markets, but it remains committed to global expansion [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - The introduction of subsidies has led to increased sales, with significant price reductions for products like the 瑞迈特 E5 B20A Plus respiratory machine due to government and platform subsidies [8] - The recent government initiative to support consumption with a special bond of 300 billion yuan aims to stimulate short-term consumption and encourage technological upgrades in products [8] Group 4: Future Development and Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings through AI and digital technologies, aiming to provide comprehensive health management rather than just treating illnesses [9][10] - The company plans to strengthen its clinical channel to build brand image and engage with healthcare professionals, while also investing in algorithm updates and new material research [10]