Brent/WTI to Bottom in 2026Q4 at $60/56 as Risk Premium Fades and Fair Value Price Declines on Higher OECD Stocks February 2026 Oil Update Daan Struyven Managing Director Co-Head of Commodities Research; Head of Oil Research Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC +1 212-357-4172 daan.struyven@gs.com Yulia Grigsby Vice President Senior Energy Strategist Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC +1 646-446-3905 yulia.grigsby@gs.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC c ...

Key Takeaways US-Iran nuclear talks extended, keeping oil prices volatile and markets on edge.USO tracks daily crude moves, gaining 6% in a year amid headline-driven swings. ETFs like OIH show varied returns as energy equities react to shifting risk premiums.The latest round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks concluded yesterday, leaving oil markets in a state of cautious stability after a period of intense pressure. During the Geneva discussions, Brent and WTI swung more than a dollar intraday as headlines flippe ...

In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week. We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy. Traders Go Full Bull as Brent Defies Oversupply Worries - Defying expectations for a year of enormous oversupply, oil prices have had their strongest start to ...

On February 19, President Trump put Iran on a 10-15 day ultimatum with the Geneva negotiations on Thursday marking the likely deadline after which military action could take place if no agreement is reached. The White House has stated that it is “very wise” for Iran to reach an agreement, while Vice President Vance has already accused Iran of not addressing the core issues raised by the U.S., indicating that there are still major differences between the two countries as they enter Thursday’s meeting – leavi ...

Market Overview - The market has been fluctuating around a multi-month high of $66.27, which is expected to be a key pivot point in the near term [1] - A sustained move above $66.27 indicates buyer presence, with a potential test of higher resistance levels at $68.11 to $69.37 if Friday's high of $67.03 is surpassed [2] Price Dynamics - The market could experience a downturn if it falls below $66.27, potentially leading to a drop towards the support line at $64.41 [3] - A late-session short-covering rally in Brent crude oil contributed to a rise in WTI futures, which were initially set to close lower [4] Supply and Demand Factors - Oil prices received support from reports of declining U.S. crude inventories, with a reported drop of 9 million barrels in stockpiles [5] - Despite the support from falling inventories, concerns about a supply glut persist, especially with OPEC+ considering output increases from April [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Donald Trump is considering military action against Iran, with a decision expected within the next 10 days, which has implications for oil prices and geopolitical stability [1][2] Oil Market Impact - U.S. crude oil prices increased by $1.58, or 2.42%, reaching $66.77 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent rose by $1.56, or 2.22%, to $71.91 [1] - Oil prices have been rising due to fears of an imminent U.S. attack on Iran, with WTI up 6% this week and 16% year-to-date [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chevron is experiencing significant stock growth, outperforming the S&P 500, and remains a strong investment despite concerns about its high valuation [1][2]. Financial Performance - Chevron's upstream profits fell from $18.6 billion in 2024 to $12.82 billion in 2025 due to lower oil prices, while downstream profits increased by 75% due to higher refining margins [4]. - The company generated $2.4 billion in additional cash flow from operations, supporting capital expenditures, stock buybacks, and dividend growth [4]. - Diluted earnings per share decreased by 31.8% [4]. Stock and Market Data - Chevron's current stock price is $185.79, with a market capitalization of $374 billion [5]. - The stock has a dividend yield of 3.68% and a gross margin of 13.79% [6]. Strategic Acquisitions - The acquisition of Hess has enhanced Chevron's production capabilities and access to reserves in offshore Guyana, where it collaborates with ExxonMobil and CNOOC [6]. - Chevron is the largest U.S. operator in Venezuela, which has significant offshore oil reserves, potentially benefiting from U.S. investment in the region [7]. Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Oil prices are rising in early 2026, which is expected to improve Chevron's margins [8]. - Management indicated that the company can sustain dividend payments and long-term investments at Brent crude prices of $50 per barrel or lower, with current prices around $67 per barrel [9]. - Chevron announced a 4% dividend increase, marking the 38th consecutive year of dividend growth, supported by improved operational efficiency and technological advancements [10]. Valuation and Investment Perspective - Despite reaching an all-time high, Chevron is considered a balanced buy with a reasonable valuation of 27.2 times earnings and 20.2 times free cash flow [11]. - The stock is viewed as a solid value investment, particularly for those seeking alternatives to AI-driven stocks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments in complex instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about cryptocurrencies, CFDs, and other financial instruments, highlighting their complexity and associated high risks [1]. - Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and fully understand the workings and risks of any financial instruments before investing [1].

Core Viewpoint - The global Brent market is expected to experience a surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day this year due to oversupply and rising inventories [1] Group 1 - Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Global Research, highlighted the current oversupply situation in the market [1] - Inventories in the market are on the rise, contributing to the surplus [1]

Economic Data and Market Reactions - The upcoming US jobs report is expected to show payrolls rose by 69,000 in January, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.4% [8][11] - Historical revisions are anticipated to indicate a significant downward adjustment to payrolls for the year through March 2025 [8][11] - Traders are preparing for key economic data that may influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][9] Stock Market and Investment Trends - Recent gains in stocks suggest easing concerns regarding the AI sector, which had previously affected software companies and high-spending tech firms [2][10] - Alphabet Inc. plans to raise $20 billion from a US dollar bond offering, surpassing the expected $15 billion, and is also targeting sales in Switzerland and the UK, including a rare 100-year bond [5][11] - Asian equities have risen, with the Nikkei 225 Index hitting a new record, driven by a recovery in US tech stocks following last week's selloff [10] Interest Rate Expectations - Traders broadly expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75% during the next meeting, similar to the decision made in January [9][11] - Analysts suggest that a stabilizing labor market, characterized by modest hiring and limited layoffs, could lead the Fed to consider cutting rates once or twice this year if inflation pressures continue to ease [10]