USA | Aerospace & Defense Electronics Equity Research AI-Unlocked Expert Insights: Commercial Aftermarket Pricing Outlook We leveraged Jefferies' newly gained AI tools to synthesize insights on Commercial AM pricing dynamics from expert call transcripts conducted in 2025. Key takes: 1) Maintenance costs are up 30-35% since 2021/2022 w/ MSD+ momentum going forward; 2) TATs remain elevated ~100-125 days w/ relief found in engine exchange programs; and 3) PMA and USM have clear advantages w/pricing and availab ...

Core Viewpoint - The market initially misjudged the performance of GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, both of which reported strong earnings but experienced stock sell-offs before rebounding significantly. Group 1: GE Aerospace - GE Aerospace reported a remarkable 26% organic revenue growth, driven by strong performance in commercial engines, services, and defense sectors [3][6] - The commercial engines and services segment saw a 22% increase in equipment revenue and a 28% rise in services revenue, leading to a 35% growth in earnings for this division [6][7] - Management raised their full-year revenue growth forecast for commercial engines services from high teens to low 20s, indicating positive momentum [8] - Supply chain improvements were noted, with priority suppliers achieving over 95% of committed volumes for three consecutive quarters, contributing to a 40% year-over-year increase in Leap engine deliveries [9][11] - GE Aerospace is positioned to benefit from increased aircraft purchases due to trade dynamics, as evidenced by Korean Air's order for 103 aircraft that will include GE engines [13][14] Group 2: GE Vernova - GE Vernova reported strong organic revenue growth and a 15% year-over-year increase in backlog, reaching over $135 billion [15][16] - The company secured nearly $15 billion in new orders, reflecting robust demand for its products [15][16] - Management's acquisition of the remaining 50% of Prolle aims to enhance exposure to the electrification segment, which is expected to grow significantly [18][20] - The combined serviceable addressable market for GE Vernova is projected to expand at a 10% compound annual growth rate, potentially doubling by 2030 [20] - The company has repurchased $2.2 billion worth of its own stock this year and plans to continue buybacks, indicating confidence in its stock value [23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue grew 26% to $11.3 billion, with operating profit also up 26% to $2.3 billion, driven by strong deliveries across aftermarket, original equipment (OE), and defense [6][19] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased 44% to $1.66, supported by higher operating profit, a lower tax rate, and a reduced share count [20][30] - Free cash flow reached $2.4 billion, up 30% with over 130% conversion [20][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Commercial Engines and Services (CES), orders were up 5%, with services orders up 32% and equipment orders down 42% due to timing [22] - CES revenue grew 27%, with services revenue up 28% and internal shop visit revenue up 33% [22][24] - In Defense and Propulsion Technologies (DPT), revenue grew 26%, with engines volume up 83% year over year [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total orders increased 2% in the third quarter, with year-to-date orders up 13% and services orders up 31% [5] - The total DPT backlog reached $19 billion, up $1.5 billion year over year [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its operational model, Flight Deck, to improve delivery and meet robust customer demand [4][7] - Investments in LEAP durability and next-generation technologies are prioritized to deliver value to customers [6][15] - The company is raising its full-year guidance across the board, expecting revenue growth in the high teens and CES growth in the low 20s [28][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for services and products, with a significant backlog of approximately $175 billion [7][8] - The company is optimistic about its trajectory entering 2026, with expectations for continued growth and improved operational performance [30][32] Other Important Information - The company is investing nearly $1 billion in its supply chain to expand capacity [12] - The LEAP third-party maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) network is growing rapidly, with external shop visits up roughly twofold [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Services outperformance and sequential step down in Q4 - Management noted strong services growth driven by improved material availability and increased work scopes, with expectations for a seasonal step down in Q4 due to typical demand patterns [37][41] Question: LEAP services margin outlook - Confidence in achieving LEAP services margin targets by 2028 is based on ongoing improvements in supply chain performance and operational efficiencies [46][50] Question: Capital deployment and M&A considerations - The company maintains a balanced capital allocation approach, prioritizing reinvestment in the business and returning capital to shareholders while remaining open to strategic M&A opportunities [53][57] Question: Spare parts performance and drivers - Spare parts growth is attributed to pent-up demand, increased work scopes, and improved material availability, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [61][66] Question: 2026 revenue growth and margin expectations - The environment for 2026 appears better than previously expected, with projected revenue growth and profit growth, although not at the same levels as 2025 [69][72] Question: Defense business and R&D insights - The defense business is leveraging commercial experience to enhance development cycles and sustainment models, with significant investments in next-generation platforms [79][82] Question: Durability of LEAP-1A blade - Initial performance of the LEAP-1A durability kit is promising, with expectations for a multi-year rollout across the installed base [86][88] Question: Supply chain material availability improvements - Improvements in supply chain material availability are the result of cumulative efforts and collaboration with suppliers, focusing on problem-solving and operational efficiency [92][95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for the third quarter was $11.3 billion, up 26% year-over-year, with operating profit also increasing by 26% to $2.3 billion [15][19] - Earnings per share (EPS) grew 44% to $1.66, driven by increased operating profit, a lower tax rate, and a reduced share count [15][19] - Free cash flow reached $2.4 billion, up 30%, with over 130% conversion from earnings [15][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Commercial Engines and Services (CES), orders were up 5%, with services orders increasing by 32% and equipment orders down 42% due to timing [17][19] - CES revenue grew 27%, with services revenue up 28% and internal shop visit revenue up 33% [17][19] - In Defense and Propulsion Technologies (DPT), revenue grew 26%, with engine volume up 83% year-over-year [19][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-to-date, orders increased by 13%, with services orders up 31% [4] - The total DPT backlog is at $19 billion, up $1.5 billion year-over-year [19] - The company expects to grow LEAP deliveries more than 20% for the full year, up from a prior outlook of 15% to 20% [7][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its FlightDeck operating model to improve delivery and meet customer demand [3][5] - Investments in LEAP durability and next-generation technologies are prioritized to deliver value to customers [10][12] - The company is committed to expanding its supply chain capacity, investing nearly $1 billion to support growth [9][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for services and products, raising full-year guidance across the board [5][19] - The company anticipates continued growth in commercial services and engine deliveries, with a positive outlook for 2026 [20][56] - Management highlighted the importance of addressing supply chain challenges and improving material availability [78] Other Important Information - The company has secured significant commitments from major airlines, including Korean Air and Cathay Pacific, for its engines [12][13] - The company is actively working on next-generation engine technologies, including the GE9X and RISE program [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the services performance and factors driving it? - Management noted that improved material availability and increased work scopes contributed to strong services growth, with expectations for continued demand [28][30] Question: What gives confidence in the LEAP services margin outlook? - Management highlighted ongoing improvements in supply chain performance and operational efficiencies as key factors supporting the margin outlook [34][36] Question: How does the company balance capital deployment and share repurchase? - Management stated that the capital allocation approach remains balanced, focusing on reinvestment in the business while returning capital to shareholders [41][42] Question: What is the outlook for 2026, particularly regarding CES revenue growth? - Management indicated a positive outlook for 2026, expecting solid revenue growth driven by an increasing installed base and higher shop visit demand [55][56]

GE Aerospace third quarter 2025 performance Financial results & company highlights October 21, 2025 Caution concerning forward-looking statements: This document contains "forward-looking statements" – that is, statements related to future events that by their nature address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. For details on the uncertainties that may cause our actual future results to be materially different than those expressed in our forward-looking statements, see www.geaerospace.com/inves ...

Core Viewpoint - The airline industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, benefiting FTAI Aviation, a company specializing in aircraft maintenance, repair, and leasing [1][4]. Company Overview - FTAI Aviation is based in New York City and operates in two main divisions: asset ownership and leasing, and manufacturing, refurbishing, and repairing aircraft engines and components [1]. - The company focuses on two key engines: the CFM56 and the V2500, which are widely used in commercial aviation [3]. Industry Challenges - The airline industry faces significant equipment supply issues, including a shortage of aircraft and components due to pandemic-related production halts, a lack of skilled labor, and an aging fleet requiring repairs or replacements [4]. - Aircraft engine maintenance and repair has become a critical bottleneck, with turnaround times increasing by 35% for legacy engines and 150% for new engines, with peak issues expected by mid-2026 [5]. Financial Performance - FTAI's second-quarter results showed a 53% year-over-year revenue increase to $676 million, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.57, a significant recovery from a loss of $2.26 the previous year [9]. - The company's stock price has risen 47% since the July 29 results announcement, with a 19% increase this year and over 1,100% growth in the past five years [9]. Future Outlook - Wall Street forecasts a 47% revenue increase for FTAI this year to $2.55 billion, with further growth expected to $3.03 billion in 2026. EPS is projected to rise 160% this year to $4.75 and another 41% next year to $6.70 [10]. - The market cap of FTAI is approximately $17.2 billion, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 22, indicating it is relatively inexpensive compared to peers [11]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for air travel has returned to pre-pandemic levels and is expected to continue growing rapidly through 2040, further supporting FTAI's business model [11]. - FTAI is well-positioned to capitalize on ongoing supply chain issues in the aviation industry, as it provides essential engines and parts that are currently in high demand [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of $1.53 billion, a 13.5% increase from $1.35 billion in Q2 2024, with 11.5% of this growth being organic [19][20] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $205 million, reflecting a 20% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding by 80 basis points to 13.4% [20][29] - Net income increased significantly to $68 million from $5 million in the prior year, driven by higher sales and expanding margins [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Engine Services revenue increased by $139 million to $1.35 billion, representing 11.5% growth, driven by strong aftermarket activity and production ramp-up in commercial aerospace [21] - Component Repair Services revenue grew by 31% year-over-year to $178 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 50% and margins expanding to a record 29% [23][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial aerospace sales grew 14% year-over-year, with strong demand for engine aftermarket services [7] - Business aviation sales increased by 9%, driven by demand for midsize and super midsize business jets [8] - Military sales grew by 12%, supported by the AeroTurbine acquisition and growth in specific military programs [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its LEAP program, enhancing CFM56 and CF34 capacity, and improving component repair services [10][17] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation, combining organic investments with strategic M&A opportunities [17][18] - The expansion of the Augusta facility is expected to add 60% capacity and create approximately 100 new jobs [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand environment and the company's ability to navigate supply chain challenges [31] - The company is increasing its 2025 revenue guidance to between $5.875 billion and $6.025 billion, reflecting continued strong demand across core end markets [28][30] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance has also been raised to a range of $790 million to $810 million, driven by better-than-expected margins [28] Other Important Information - The company expects free cash flow for 2025 to be in the range of $155 million to $175 million, with a strong cash conversion cycle anticipated in the second half of the year [25][30] - The company’s leverage improved to 2.99 times net debt to EBITDA, down from 5.4 times in 2024 [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on revenue cadence in Engine Services - Management confirmed that revenue growth expectations remain strong, particularly for the CF34 program, and expressed confidence in the second half guidance [38] Question: Margin dilution from new programs - Management indicated that margin expansion would have been greater without the ramp programs, but losses are narrowing significantly [41] Question: Growth dynamics for LEAP, CFM56, and CF34 - Management explained that LEAP is being carefully ramped up for precision, while CF34 is expected to see increased work due to aging engines [46][49] Question: Engine exchange program details - Management clarified that the engine exchange program involves a one-time investment and is designed to be self-funding over time [59][112] Question: Cash flow expectations for the second half - Management expects strong free cash flow driven by the unwinding of working capital and improved collections [100][102]

Core Viewpoint - GE Aviation has established an engine quick repair center in Shanghai, which has been operational for two years, providing on-wing support services for domestic aircraft models C909 and C919, and has set up a LEAP-1C spare engine library to enhance service offerings [1][2]. Group 1: Engine Quick Repair Center - The quick repair center is the first in China to provide specialized quick repair services for GE and CFM engines, offering more in-depth services than on-wing and near-wing repairs while being faster than major overhauls [2][4]. - Since its establishment, the Shanghai quick repair center has completed repairs on 48 engines, including models such as CFM56, CF34, and LEAP-1A/1B, and provides approximately 200 technical support sessions annually to airlines and aircraft manufacturers [4][8]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency and Innovations - The center has adopted a "Flow" production model, which improves the efficiency of the engine repair process by allowing engines to move through various repair stages rather than being stationary, thus reducing wait times for tools and parts [5][8]. - The workforce has shifted from a generalist model to a more specialized approach, enhancing the precision and skill of engineers, which allows for better on-site support for airline customers [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong second quarter with revenue exceeding $10 billion, up 23% year-over-year, and profit reaching $2.3 billion, an increase of 23% [44] - Orders were up 27%, with commercial engine services (CES) growing 30% and defense propulsion technologies (DPT) up 7% [44] - Free cash flow nearly doubled to $2.1 billion compared to the previous year [44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CES services revenue increased by nearly 30% year-over-year, driven by internal shop visit revenue up more than 20% and spare parts revenue up over 25% [25] - DPT revenue grew 6%, with defense and systems up 6% and propulsion and additive technologies up 9% [48] - CES margins expanded by 50 basis points to 27.9%, while DPT margins declined by 20 basis points to 14.1% [47][48] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects air traffic growth to outpace global GDP, particularly in Asia Pacific and the Middle East [16] - The commercial services backlog has increased to over $140 billion, supporting growth for years to come [16] - The defense sector is seeing solid momentum globally, with increased funding for key defense propulsion initiatives [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to ramp up services and equipment to support customer fleets while fulfilling strong demand for new engines [19] - Investments of over $1 billion are planned for MRO and component repair facilities over the next five years [23] - The company is focused on enhancing engine performance and expanding its supply chain and service networks [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management raised the 2025 guidance across the board, expecting total revenue growth in the mid-teens, up from low double digits [49] - The outlook for 2028 has also been raised, with expectations for adjusted EPS reaching approximately $8.40 and operating profit around $11.5 billion [42] - Management expressed optimism about the company's trajectory, citing strong fundamentals and a robust order backlog [16][42] Other Important Information - The company is investing approximately $3 billion in R&D in 2025, which is 6-8% of revenue [29] - The company has a life of program win rate of 75% for GE9X engines, indicating strong demand [26] - The company is effectively sold out through the rest of the decade for commercial and defense engines [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you reconcile the second half EBIT decline? - Management explained that while the second half EBIT is expected to be lower, the overall year is projected to see strong profit growth, with a better-than-expected second quarter contributing to raised revenue expectations [80][84] Question: What are the pricing assumptions for 2024-2028? - Management indicated that pricing is expected to offset inflation, with mid-single-digit pricing dynamics anticipated as the company moves beyond product launches [92][93] Question: What is the baseline for retirement rates? - Management acknowledged that retirements have been low but expect an increase as the fleet ages, with assumptions built around new aircraft deliveries and departure growth [95]

Financial Performance - GE Aerospace reported adjusted revenue of $102 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase in Q2 2025[54] - The company's operating profit reached $23 billion, also a 23% increase compared to the previous year[54] - Free cash flow surged to $21 billion, a significant 92% increase year-over-year[54] - Adjusted EPS increased by 38% year-over-year, reaching $166[54] - Orders increased by 27% year-over-year, totaling $142 billion[54] Guidance and Outlook - GE Aerospace is raising its 2025 adjusted revenue growth guidance to mid-teens, up from low double-digit[55] - The company expects its 2028 operating profit to reach approximately $115 billion, an increase of $15 billion from the prior outlook[57] - GE Aerospace anticipates a free cash flow of approximately $85 billion in 2028, also a $15 billion increase from the previous forecast[57] Commercial Engines & Services (CES) - Commercial Engines & Services reported a 29% year-over-year increase in services revenue for Q2 2025[32] - Equipment revenue for CES increased by 35% year-over-year[105] - The company expects double-digit revenue growth in commercial services[62] Defense & Propulsion Technologies (DPT) - Defense & Propulsion Technologies revenue increased by 7% year-over-year in Q2 2025[108] - The U S Air Force awarded a $5 billion contract for F110 engines[37]