GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 21, 2025 07:30 AM ET Speaker0Day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace Third Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. My name is Dustin, and I will be your conference coordinator today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blair Shore, Head of Investor Relations.Please proceed.Sp ...

GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 21, 2025 07:30 AM ET Speaker4Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Dustin, and I will be your conference coordinator today. If you experience issues with the webcast slides refreshing, or if there appear to be delays in the slide advancement, please hit F5 on your keyboard to refresh. As a reminder, this conference is ...

GE Aerospace third quarter 2025 performance Financial results & company highlights October 21, 2025 Caution concerning forward-looking statements: This document contains "forward-looking statements" – that is, statements related to future events that by their nature address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. For details on the uncertainties that may cause our actual future results to be materially different than those expressed in our forward-looking statements, see www.geaerospace.com/inves ...

Core Insights - GE Aerospace stock has increased by over 65% from April 18, 2025, to October 15, 2025, driven by strong operational performance and a positive outlook [1] - The company's P/E multiple experienced a significant change of 42.6%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and valuation [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, GE Aerospace reported total revenue of $11.0 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of $1.66, up 38% [5] - Free cash flow nearly doubled to $2.1 billion, prompting the company to raise its full-year 2025 guidance and outlook for operating profit and free cash flow through 2028 [5] Strategic Developments - GE Aerospace secured substantial new engine commitments, including a landmark deal with Qatar Airways for over 400 GE9X and GEnx engines, contributing to a backlog of approximately $175 billion by the end of Q2 2025 [5] - The company is addressing supply chain constraints and enhancing capacity through strategic initiatives, including a nearly $1 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing and technology [5] Market Sentiment - Analyst sentiment is predominantly positive, with multiple firms reiterating "buy" or "outperform" ratings and raising price targets for GE Aerospace shares following strong financial results [9] - The U.S. government has allowed GE Aerospace to resume shipments of jet engines to China's COMAC, opening new business growth opportunities [9]

Core Insights - GE Aerospace has signed an extended services contract with Silk Way West Airlines to maintain its operational fleet of Boeing aircraft, covering various engine types including GE90-115B, GEnx-2B, and GE9X [1][9] Group 1: Contract Details - The contract includes maintenance for six GE90-115B-equipped 777 Freighters, five GEnx-2B-powered 747-8 Freighters, and four GE9X-equipped 777-8 Freighters [1] - This deal reinforces the long-standing collaboration between GE Aerospace and Silk Way West Airlines, which has a strong GE-powered fleet [3][9] Group 2: Engine Performance and Impact - The GEnx engine family has completed over 62 million flight hours, with more than 3,600 engines currently in service and backlog [2][9] - The GE9X engine offers a 10% improvement in specific fuel consumption compared to its predecessor, enhancing operational efficiency for the airline [2] Group 3: Market Position and Financial Performance - GE Aerospace holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), benefiting from a growing installed base and increased utilization of engine platforms due to strong demand in commercial and defense sectors [5] - In the last three months, GE's shares have increased by 21.6%, outperforming the industry growth of 7.1% [6]

Core Viewpoint - GE Aerospace has shown remarkable stock performance, increasing from approximately $100 in early 2024 to around $270, representing a 2.7x increase, driven by a strategic focus on aerospace, strong service business, debt reduction, and high demand for LEAP engines [2] Growth Drivers - Potential for the stock to double again to over $500, supported by several factors [3] - Significant capital investment of about $1 billion in U.S. manufacturing for 2025, nearly double last year's commitment, aimed at expanding capacity [5] - Plans to scale LEAP engine production to deliver 2,500 engines by 2028, sufficient for over 1,000 aircraft [5] - Recovery in global air travel and fleet modernization, particularly in emerging markets, is expected to sustain demand [5] - Growth in commercial services revenue, which has higher margins than original equipment, with a backlog exceeding $175 billion [5] - Technological advancements such as XA100, GE9X, and the RISE program position the company for leadership in sustainable aviation [5] - Increased global defense spending may boost military aerospace demand, with NATO members urged to increase defense budgets [5] - Operating margins have consistently expanded, currently at 19.1%, comparable to the S&P 500's 18.8% [5] Valuation Scenarios - GE's guidance suggests adjusted EPS of $8.40 by 2028, with potential to exceed $9.20 per share, up from $4.60 in 2024 [4] - Conservative scenario (P/E 30x) targets a price of $280, indicating limited upside [4] - Base case scenario (P/E 40x) targets a price of $370, reflecting about 40% upside [9] - Optimistic scenario (P/E 55x) targets a price of over $500, indicating nearly 2x upside [9] Conclusion - GE Aerospace is positioned as a compelling growth story with clear catalysts for expansion, supported by a focused strategy and strong market positions [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong second quarter with revenue exceeding $10 billion, up 23% year-over-year, and profit reaching $2.3 billion, an increase of 23% [44] - Orders were up 27%, with commercial engine services (CES) growing 30% and defense propulsion technologies (DPT) up 7% [44] - Free cash flow nearly doubled to $2.1 billion compared to the previous year [44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CES services revenue increased by nearly 30% year-over-year, driven by internal shop visit revenue up more than 20% and spare parts revenue up over 25% [25] - DPT revenue grew 6%, with defense and systems up 6% and propulsion and additive technologies up 9% [48] - CES margins expanded by 50 basis points to 27.9%, while DPT margins declined by 20 basis points to 14.1% [47][48] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects air traffic growth to outpace global GDP, particularly in Asia Pacific and the Middle East [16] - The commercial services backlog has increased to over $140 billion, supporting growth for years to come [16] - The defense sector is seeing solid momentum globally, with increased funding for key defense propulsion initiatives [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to ramp up services and equipment to support customer fleets while fulfilling strong demand for new engines [19] - Investments of over $1 billion are planned for MRO and component repair facilities over the next five years [23] - The company is focused on enhancing engine performance and expanding its supply chain and service networks [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management raised the 2025 guidance across the board, expecting total revenue growth in the mid-teens, up from low double digits [49] - The outlook for 2028 has also been raised, with expectations for adjusted EPS reaching approximately $8.40 and operating profit around $11.5 billion [42] - Management expressed optimism about the company's trajectory, citing strong fundamentals and a robust order backlog [16][42] Other Important Information - The company is investing approximately $3 billion in R&D in 2025, which is 6-8% of revenue [29] - The company has a life of program win rate of 75% for GE9X engines, indicating strong demand [26] - The company is effectively sold out through the rest of the decade for commercial and defense engines [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you reconcile the second half EBIT decline? - Management explained that while the second half EBIT is expected to be lower, the overall year is projected to see strong profit growth, with a better-than-expected second quarter contributing to raised revenue expectations [80][84] Question: What are the pricing assumptions for 2024-2028? - Management indicated that pricing is expected to offset inflation, with mid-single-digit pricing dynamics anticipated as the company moves beyond product launches [92][93] Question: What is the baseline for retirement rates? - Management acknowledged that retirements have been low but expect an increase as the fleet ages, with assumptions built around new aircraft deliveries and departure growth [95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, GE Aerospace reported a revenue increase of 23% year-over-year, exceeding $10 billion, with orders up 27% [41] - Profit reached $2.3 billion, a 23% increase, driven by services volume and price, resulting in margins of 23% [41] - EPS was $1.66, up 38% from the previous year, supported by a favorable tax rate and lower interest expenses [41] - Free cash flow nearly doubled to $2.1 billion compared to last year [41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Commercial Engines and Services (CES) segment grew revenue by 30%, with service revenue up 29% and equipment revenue up 35% [41][43] - The Defense and Propulsion Technologies (DPT) segment saw a revenue increase of 7%, with profit up 5% [41][45] - CES margins expanded by 50 basis points to 27.9%, while DPT margins declined by 20 basis points to 14.1% [41][45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Departures grew nearly 4% in Q2 2025, aligning with expectations, with a conservative outlook for low single-digit growth in the second half of the year [13] - The commercial services backlog increased to over $140 billion, supporting future growth [14] - Air traffic growth is expected to outpace global GDP, particularly in Asia Pacific and the Middle East [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - GE Aerospace aims to ramp up services and equipment to support customer fleets while fulfilling strong demand for new engines [16] - The company is investing over $1 billion in MRO and component repair facilities over the next five years to expand capacity [21] - GE Aerospace is focused on enhancing engine performance through technological advancements and operational improvements [17][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management raised the 2025 guidance across all metrics, expecting total revenue growth in the mid-teens, up from low double digits [46] - The company anticipates strong adjusted revenue growth at a double-digit compounded rate through 2028, driven by robust demand for services and equipment [39] - Management expressed optimism about the long-term market growth, projecting a mid-single-digit compounded growth rate through 2028 [15] Other Important Information - GE Aerospace's R&D investment is approximately $3 billion in 2025, representing 6-8% of revenue [26] - The company has a strong competitive advantage with the world's largest installed base of engines, accumulating over 2.3 billion flight hours [26] - GE Aerospace plans to return over $24 billion to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, including $19 billion in buybacks [70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about second half EBIT guidance - Management explained that the second half EBIT guidance reflects a conservative approach, considering expected headwinds from GE9X shipments and corporate expenses [77][81] Question: Pricing assumptions and retirement rates - Management clarified that pricing is expected to offset inflation, with mid-single-digit pricing dynamics anticipated [88] - Regarding retirement rates, management noted that as the fleet ages, retirements are expected to increase, aligning with new aircraft deliveries and departure growth [92][93]

Financial Performance - GE Aerospace reported adjusted revenue of $102 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase in Q2 2025[54] - The company's operating profit reached $23 billion, also a 23% increase compared to the previous year[54] - Free cash flow surged to $21 billion, a significant 92% increase year-over-year[54] - Adjusted EPS increased by 38% year-over-year, reaching $166[54] - Orders increased by 27% year-over-year, totaling $142 billion[54] Guidance and Outlook - GE Aerospace is raising its 2025 adjusted revenue growth guidance to mid-teens, up from low double-digit[55] - The company expects its 2028 operating profit to reach approximately $115 billion, an increase of $15 billion from the prior outlook[57] - GE Aerospace anticipates a free cash flow of approximately $85 billion in 2028, also a $15 billion increase from the previous forecast[57] Commercial Engines & Services (CES) - Commercial Engines & Services reported a 29% year-over-year increase in services revenue for Q2 2025[32] - Equipment revenue for CES increased by 35% year-over-year[105] - The company expects double-digit revenue growth in commercial services[62] Defense & Propulsion Technologies (DPT) - Defense & Propulsion Technologies revenue increased by 7% year-over-year in Q2 2025[108] - The U S Air Force awarded a $5 billion contract for F110 engines[37]

Group 1: Cheniere Energy and LNG Industry - The U.S. has become the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, exporting 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024, surpassing Qatar and Australia [2] - Cheniere Energy exported 2.33 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) in 2024, equating to 6.37 Bcf/d, and has a total production capacity of 45 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) across its terminals [3] - The current administration supports LNG growth, and Cheniere's CEO believes there is a strategic imperative to secure permits for future capacity expansion to over 90 mtpa [5] Group 2: GE Aerospace and Aerospace Industry - GE Aerospace is a market leader in commercial aerospace and defense engines, with its joint venture CFM International producing the LEAP engine, which powers the Boeing 737 MAX and is one of two options for the Airbus A320neo family [7] - GE's GE9X engine is the sole option for the Boeing 777X, and its GEnx engine dominates orders for the Boeing 787, indicating strong market presence [8] - The next generation of engines, RISE, is expected to achieve a 20% improvement in fuel efficiency over the LEAP, potentially ensuring GE's leadership in commercial aerospace engines for decades [9] Group 3: Tesla and Electric Vehicle Industry - Tesla's Model Y is the best-selling car globally and is set to improve sales with refreshed production lines in 2025 [10] - Upcoming catalysts for Tesla include the launch of its robotaxi in June 2025 and the mass production of the Cybercab in 2026, alongside lower-cost models [11] - Tesla has significantly reduced its cost of goods per vehicle, falling below $35,000 by the end of 2024, which enhances profit margins and competitiveness in the EV market [12][13] - CEO Elon Musk has positioned Tesla as a leader in the SUV market, and the company's advancements in EVs and robotaxis suggest a strong future in the industry [15]