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Seaport Global Turns Bullish on Constellation Energy (CEG) Ahead of Calpine Acquisition
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-14 20:45
Group 1 - Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CEG) has been upgraded to "Buy" from Neutral by Seaport Global Securities due to rising cash flows among thermal independent power producers and the pending acquisition of Calpine [1][2] - The upgrade is supported by factors such as higher power and capacity prices, lower interest rates, and no cash taxes impacting thermal IPPs [1] - The merger with Calpine is expected to close within the next 30 days, and the company is anticipated to perform well leading into its refreshed earnings update [2] Group 2 - CEG is projected to trade at 10.3x 2027 EV/EBITDA and a 7.7% 2027 FCF yield based on updated estimates post-Calpine merger [2] - The multiples for CEG are considered rich compared to its closest peer, VST, due to CEG's size and its nuclear/gas earnings mix [2] - Regulatory reforms in California's resource adequacy market are being monitored, especially given elevated RA prices in Northern California [2]
Is AES Corporation Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-24 06:23
The AES Corporation (AES), headquartered in Arlington, Virginia,  is a global energy company committed to shaping the future of clean, reliable, and accessible power. With operations spanning multiple continents, AES builds, owns, and operates a diversified portfolio of generation, utilities, renewables, energy storage, and transmission infrastructure. Its sharp focus on innovation is helping industries, communities, and governments make the energy transition in more sustainable ways. AES has a market cap ...
Is Constellation Energy (CEG) Too Pricey After Its Data Center Surge?
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-10 18:13
Core Insights - Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CEG) is currently viewed as an exciting AI stock, with a price target raised to $347.00 from $293.00 by Jefferies analyst Paul Zimbardo, while maintaining a Hold rating [1] - The stock has experienced a significant increase of approximately 90% since early April lows, despite losing momentum since early August earnings due to a lack of deal announcements [1][2] - The analyst highlights that CEG's stock price reflects a high valuation, incorporating future data center awards, which leads to a cautious stance with a Hold rating [2][3] Financial Metrics - CEG's stock price is estimated to include around $142 per share attributed to data center value, which constitutes about 47% of the stock price [3] - The analysis assumes a 75% eligibility for CEG's nuclear portfolio, equating to 13GW at $88/MWh, with the remaining 5GW at $80/MWh, alongside Clinton/Crane Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) [3] Market Position - Despite the increase in the price target, CEG is considered relatively expensive compared to its peers, embedding a significant market share of future data center awards [3] - The company specializes in clean, carbon-free energy solutions, positioning itself within a growing sector [3]
stellation Energy (CEG) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-07 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported second quarter GAAP earnings of $2.67 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $1.91 per share, an increase of $0.23 per share compared to the previous year [7][39]. - The nuclear fleet achieved a capacity factor of 94.8%, producing over 41 million megawatt hours of emissions-free power, marking the second-best fleet production ever [42]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The commercial team successfully managed extreme market volatility, achieving higher than average margins on retail sales and selling value-added products around the clean attributes of nuclear plants [43]. - The renewables and natural gas fleets also performed well, with renewable energy capture at 96.1% and power dispatch at 98.3% [42]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company recognized $200 million from the Illinois ZEC program for bank credits, similar to the previous year, indicating effective management of the program [40]. - The latest PJM capacity auction cleared 2,700 megawatts of new and uprated generation capacity, with expectations for more than nine gigawatts of new firm reliable supply to come online by 2026 [31]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on closing the Calpine acquisition and integrating the two businesses, which is expected to add $2 to EPS and $2 billion of free cash flow before growth starting next year [55][38]. - The passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" is seen as a significant win for nuclear power, preserving and expanding nuclear credits, which will support the company's growth strategy [22][51]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued bipartisan support for nuclear energy and the importance of reliable natural gas in the data economy [25][16]. - The company anticipates earnings growth of 13% through the decade, supported by robust cash flow and base earnings protected by the nuclear PTC [54][56]. Other Important Information - The company has executed $400 million in accelerated share repurchases, totaling $2.4 billion since the start of the buyback program, with $600 million remaining under the current Board authorization [50]. - The company is optimistic about the potential for new nuclear investments, with ongoing evaluations of designs and cost structures [66][68]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the timeline for the potential late inning data center deal and interconnection timelines from utilities? - Management hopes to finalize the deal this year, noting that utilities have become more responsive in expediting interconnection processes [59][60]. Question: Has the strategy for new nuclear investments changed? - The strategy is evolving rather than undergoing a major shift, with growing confidence in understanding cost structures and timelines for new nuclear projects [66][68]. Question: What are the expectations for state-level action on PJM changes? - Management anticipates that state actions, like New York's RFP for nuclear, could transpire in other states, potentially leading to new nuclear opportunities [77].