欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 行情走势 01 2月4日 ， 焦煤期货主力合约震荡走强，盘中一度涨超5%，截止收盘，焦煤主力合约收涨3.60%，收报1209元/吨。 消息面上，据多家行业媒体报道， 印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼上月 向主要矿商下达的产量配额比2025年水平降低40%至70%，作为该国提振煤价计划的一部分。 针对印尼RKAB煤炭生产额度审批的最新情况调研，近期印尼煤炭RKAB（印度尼西亚政府对矿产和煤炭开采业务活动实施的工作计划与 预算报告制度，由能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）负责管理，矿业公司必须编制并提交该文件以获得生产批准，从2026年开始审批周期由3 年恢复至1年）审批引发讨论，由于煤矿提交的生产计划与政府批示的结果差距较大，引发市场对印尼煤炭供给减量的担忧。 据首次批示结果来看：其中7家煤矿审批额度与提交额度一致，约2.22亿吨，31家煤矿审批额度减量，提交计划总量为2.55亿吨，实际审 批1.19亿吨，下降53.3%，另4家正在审批中；以上已审批煤炭生产额度为3.41亿吨。部分矿商为此暂停煤炭出 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Commodity Outlook Update Industry Overview - The report provides an update on the outlook for energy, metals, bulks, and agricultural commodities for 2026, with a focus on oil, precious metals, aluminium, and EUAs [1] Oil Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to rally to around $70/bbl due to rising geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia/Ukraine, alongside export disruptions from Kazakhstan, Libya, and Algeria [2] - A moderation in geopolitical risks is anticipated by the second half of 2026, with potential price pressures from a fundamental surplus and political influences ahead of the November 2026 US mid-term elections [2] Precious Metals Forecast - Silver is projected to outperform gold, with expected prices of $100/oz for silver and $5,000/oz for gold [3] - The report suggests that these price levels will provide opportunities for producers and central banks to hedge against price declines [3] Aluminium and Base Metals Outlook - Aluminium is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with a near-term price target of $3,400/t, supported by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [21] - Copper prices are forecasted to reach $14,000/t in the near term, driven by market momentum and demand expectations [25] - Nickel prices are projected to rise to $20,000/t in the short term but are expected to retreat to $16,000/t over the next 6-12 months due to supply growth and market surplus [28] Natural Gas and LNG - The report anticipates a global LNG oversupply starting in 2027, with average prices projected at $9.5/MMBtu for JKM LNG and $8.8/MMBtu for TTF in 2026 [37] - US natural gas prices may decline further due to strong production, but winter demand remains a factor [37] Agricultural Commodities - Coffee prices are expected to decline to $3.40/lb in 3 months and $3/lb in 12 months due to increasing inventories and favorable crop conditions in Brazil and Vietnam [46] EUAs and Carbon Pricing - EUAs are projected to reach €95/t as policymakers avoid direct intervention in the EU ETS, focusing on support for energy-intensive industries [44] - The EU Commission has expanded the list of eligible sectors for indirect cost compensation, reinforcing the bullish outlook for EUA prices [45] Additional Insights - The report highlights the potential for further inflows into base metals driven by macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment [19] - There is a cautionary note regarding the sustainability of current price levels beyond the first quarter of 2026, with expectations of profit-taking and market corrections [13][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts from the commodity outlook update, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends and market dynamics across various sectors.

Group 1 - The core driving logic of coal price trends is the supply-demand pattern, with the current rapid decline in coal prices expected to have limited space, estimating a bottom range of 680-700 RMB/ton [1][2] - The demand for coal is currently at the median level of the past five years, with a recent downward trend in port inventories, although future weather conditions should be monitored [2] - The coal sector's cyclical bottom is confirmed in Q2 2025, with a reversal point in the supply-demand pattern, and expectations for a new upward cycle starting in H2 2026 for coal and downstream thermal power demand [1][2] Group 2 - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 721 RMB/ton, a decrease of 42 RMB/ton (-5.5%) from the previous week, with domestic supply stable and imports continuing to decline [2] - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, an increase of 50 RMB/ton (3.0%), indicating a potential for demand to remain strong despite the seasonal downturn [3] - The average daily iron water production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain robust during the off-season [3]

Market Trends - Chinese coking coal futures are on track for their largest weekly gain since August, driven by market sentiment [1] - The rally in coking coal futures has also contributed to an increase in iron ore and steel prices [1]

Core Insights - Abitibi Metals Corp. has appointed Craig Parry, a seasoned mining executive and shareholder, to its Advisory Committee to support the company's growth phase [2][4]. Company Overview - Abitibi Metals Corp. is focused on mineral acquisition and exploration in Quebec, aiming to develop high-upside base and precious metal properties [7]. - The company has a significant interest in the B26 Polymetallic Deposit, which has a resource estimate of 11.3 million tonnes at 2.13% copper equivalent (Indicated) and 7.2 million tonnes at 2.21% copper equivalent (Inferred) [7]. Leadership and Experience - Craig Parry has over 20 years of global mining and exploration experience, having held key roles in various successful resource companies [3][6]. - His previous positions include Lead Director of Skeena Resources, Executive Chairman and CEO of Vizsla Copper, and Chairman of Vizsla Silver, where he contributed to major discoveries and company growth [3][6]. Strategic Importance - The appointment of Mr. Parry is seen as pivotal for Abitibi as it advances its B26 Project, which is characterized by high-grade resources and significant expansion potential [4][5]. - The company is currently engaged in an aggressive drill program to unlock the full potential of the B26 Deposit [4].

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia has ordered 15 coal mines to cease operations due to exceeding approved output limits, reflecting efforts to manage production capacity in the coal industry [1][2] - The directive follows inspections by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Energy Bureau aimed at addressing overcapacity issues [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The 15 mines in Ordos exceeded their authorized capacity by more than 10% in the first half of 2025 [2] - Affected mines must halt production and can only resume after passing safety inspections by regional regulators, although the timing of these inspections is unspecified [2] Group 2: National Oversight - In July, China initiated inspections in key coal-producing areas, instructing local authorities to report on mines exceeding production limits for 2024 and H1 2025 [3] - The National Energy Administration (NEA) is involved in these inspections and is part of the National Development and Reform Commission, which is establishing a coal production reserve system by 2027 [4] Group 3: Market Impact - The regulatory actions have led to increased market speculation and a surge in coking coal prices, with the most active coal contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rising nearly 8% to 1,048.5 yuan ($146.19) per tonne, the highest since March [4]

Core Insights - Mongolia-based coking coal producer and exporter Mongolian Mining Corporation (MMC) has successfully completed its first gold pour at the Bayan Khundii gold mine, which is projected to produce approximately 85,000 ounces of gold annually with total reserves of 513,700 ounces at an average grade of four grams per tonne [1][3] - MMC has invested $40 million for a 50% equity interest in Erdene Mongol (EM) as part of a Strategic Alliance and Investment Agreement, effective from January 25, 2024, and aims to reach full production capacity by late Q4 2025 [2][4] - The company is diversifying its business portfolio to ensure sustainable growth and long-term value creation, while also supporting exploration efforts to extend the mine life and bring additional deposits into production [6] Company Overview - MMC is primarily known for its coking coal production and operates the Ukhaa Khudag and Baruun Naran open-pit coal mines in Umnugobi aimag, Mongolia [3] - Since its inception in 2009, MMC has become a major exporter of washed coal and was the first Mongolian company to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2010 [3] - In 2023, MMC formalized agreements with Erdene Resource Development to advance the Bayan Khundii gold project [3]

Company Overview - Mongolian Mining Corporation (MMC) is the largest internationally listed private mining company focused on operations in Mongolia [7] - The company has a diversified business portfolio that includes coking coal, gold, copper, and other non-ferrous metals mining assets [7][8] Recent Developments - MMC successfully completed the first gold pour at the Bayan Khundii (BKH) gold mine on September 14, 2025 [1] - The BKH gold mine has a total gold reserve of 513,700 ounces with an average head grade of 4.0 g/t gold, and is expected to produce approximately 85,000 ounces of gold annually at a low quartile all-in sustaining cost [2] Strategic Investments - The company announced a US$40 million investment for a 50% equity interest in Erdene Mongol LLC (EM) under a Strategic Alliance and Investment Agreement effective January 25, 2024 [3] - The BKH mine's gold will be sold to Mongolia's Central Bank at spot gold prices, contributing to the country's foreign currency reserves and economic stability [4] Future Outlook - MMC is on track to achieve nameplate capacity production at the BKH mine by late Q4 2025 [4] - The company aims to extend the mine life and bring additional deposits into production through continued exploration efforts in collaboration with its strategic partner [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the **coal industry in Shanxi, China** [1] - The coal market has experienced a price rebound in July and August, but profitability remains an issue for many mines [1] Core Insights - Approximately **40-50% of state-owned enterprise (SOE) coal mines** are still operating at a loss, with loss-making coking coal mines accounting for about **20% of industry capacity** [1] - Following an overproduction inspection in July, coal production from sampled mines has decreased by **5%**, contributing to a rise in thermal coal prices to over **Rmb700/ton** by late August [3] - Despite the expected decline in supply towards year-end, a significant drop is not anticipated due to the need for coal during the winter heating season [3] - Thermal coal prices are projected to fluctuate between **Rmb640-700/ton**, indicating limited downside potential [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Total coal demand is expected to increase by **1-2% year-on-year in 2025**, driven by higher thermal power demand due to extreme temperatures and a colder winter forecast [4] - The steel and cement industries are identified as major factors dragging down overall coal demand [4] - Coal imports are projected to decline to **360-370 million tons in 2025**, down from **420 million tons in 2024**, with a **14% year-on-year decrease** noted in the first seven months of 2025 [5] - Increased imports from Indonesia are expected, but overall imports will continue to decline due to India's preference for higher calorific value coal [5] Regional Insights - The potential for increased coal volume from Mongolia is limited by port inventory capacity and demand in China [6] - Mongolian coal is not a substitute for Shanxi coking coal due to its lower strength, primarily serving as blended coal for coke production [7] Additional Considerations - The report indicates that the coal industry is currently viewed as **attractive** by Morgan Stanley [9] - The insights provided are based on comprehensive data and analysis, reflecting the current state and future outlook of the coal industry in Shanxi [1][3][4][5][6][7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Shougang Fushan Resources reported a 38% year-on-year decline in attributable net profit to HK$404 million for 1H25, which was better than expected due to a milder decline in earnings driven by a larger-than-anticipated reduction in costs despite falling coal prices [1]. Production and Sales - Raw and clean coking coal output increased by 17% and 19% year-on-year to 2.64 million tons and 1.54 million tons, respectively, with 100% of raw coal being washed. Clean coking coal sales volume rose 16% year-on-year to 1.55 million tons, primarily due to a temporary production suspension at Xingwu Coal Mine in 1H24 [1][2]. Price Trends - The average selling price of clean coking coal fell 45% year-on-year to Rmb1,067 per ton in 1H25. This decline was steeper than the 36% and 39% year-on-year decreases in Shanxi main coking coal prices at Jingtang Port and Shanxi Liulin No.9 coking coal, respectively. The price drop was attributed to a shift in coal quality following the full mining of lower-group coal at Xingwu Coal Mine [2]. Cost Management - The unit production cost of raw coking coal decreased by 28% year-on-year to Rmb328 per ton in 1H25. Cash costs fell 32% year-on-year to Rmb241 per ton, while cash costs excluding uncontrollable expenses declined 31% year-on-year to Rmb185 per ton [3]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Net operating cash inflow decreased by Rmb727 million year-on-year to Rmb453 million in 1H25. As of the end of June, the company held available free funds of HK$9.48 billion (HK$8.41 billion excluding the 2024 final dividend). The firm plans to pay an interim dividend of HK$0.06 per share for 1H25, resulting in a payout ratio of 76% and a dividend yield of approximately 2.2% based on the current share price [4]. Market Outlook - Coking coal prices rebounded in 3Q25, with a cautiously optimistic outlook for coking coal fundamentals in 2H25. Prices have risen since July, supported by tightening supply in certain regions. The price of Liulin No.9 coking coal increased from Rmb968 per ton in June to Rmb1,278 per ton by August 28, with a quarterly average of Rmb1,209 per ton in 3Q25, up 10% compared to 2Q25 [5]. Future Projections - The upside for coking coal prices will depend on domestic supply contractions, influenced by expectations of weaker demand amid sluggish steel consumption and declining profit margins. Coking coal imports, particularly from Mongolia, may see marginal improvement as coal prices recover [5]. Financial Adjustments - The company has lowered its coal price and cost assumptions, cutting its 2025 and 2026 earnings forecasts by 4% to HK$892 million and HK$978 million, respectively. The stock is currently trading at 15.8x and 14.4x 2025e and 2026e P/E ratios. The company maintains an OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of HK$3.00, implying 17.1x and 15.6x 2025e and 2026e P/E ratios and offering an 8% upside [5].