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Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Trump's tariff threat is essentially a political gaming tool with a weak intention to block Russian oil, and its impact on the crude oil market will be limited to short - term emotional shocks. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, as major macro uncertainties are gradually eliminated, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals [1][12]. Summary by Directory Policy Nature: Political Gaming Takes Precedence over Energy Blockade - The core logic of the US's secondary sanctions signal against Russia is more of a geopolitical pressure tool rather than a substantial energy blockade. The measure of imposing a 100% tariff on countries like China, India, and Brazil that purchase Russian oil has more political intent than actual enforcement effectiveness. Trump chose to start sanctions through an executive order, leaving a 10 - 12 - day negotiation window and room for flexible adjustment. Considering the export and import structures between relevant countries and the US, the sanctions are likely to stay at the level of "extreme pressure", creating a market expectation of "high threat, low execution" [2]. Historical Reference: The "Pulse - like Impact - Rapid Fading" Path of January Sanctions - The Biden administration's sanctions on Russian oil tankers in January this year can be regarded as a preview of the current situation. Although it initially caused Brent crude to jump 6.8% to $81.2 per barrel in 3 trading days, the actual effect was quickly disproven. - There were structural loopholes in the evasion mechanism. Countries like India and Turkey used old tankers for STS transfer, and China and Russia increased the proportion of RMB settlement. Some ports quickly took over the unloading demand of Russian oil [3]. - The market expectation self - corrected. After the 5th trading day of the sanctions announcement, the oil price started to decline because the actual export volume did not drop significantly. Russia adjusted its export structure, and the overall export volume quickly recovered. The freight increase was lower than expected [4]. - Fundamentals played the ultimate leading role. During the sanctions, OPEC+ maintained a production cut of 160 million barrels per day, US shale oil production was stable, and OECD commercial inventories rose, which jointly suppressed the upward space of oil prices. Brent crude returned to the $75 - 80 range within a week. Compared with the current situation, the market has a higher tolerance for geopolitical disturbances, and short - term sharp fluctuations are unlikely to reappear [6]. Market Focus Shift: The OPEC+ Meeting Will Reshape the Oil Price Logic - As the Fed's interest - rate decision in July becomes clear, the crude oil market logic is accelerating its return to fundamentals. The OPEC+ meeting on August 3 will be a key turning point. - The continuity of the production - cut agreement is a focus. Whether Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary production cut of 100 million barrels per day is crucial. Maintaining the current policy may support the oil price, while relaxation may suppress the geopolitical premium. OPEC+ core members have already restored 191.9 million barrels per day of production, and the remaining voluntary production - cut quota is only 24.5 million barrels per day [7]. - Russia's production statement is important. Despite the sanctions threat, Russia's crude oil production has been stable. If it promises to maintain production discipline at the meeting, it will strengthen the market's expectation of supply tightness. However, the impact of sanctions on global supply is limited due to Russia's adjusted export structure [8]. - The signal of idle - capacity release is significant. Saudi Arabia has about 300 million barrels per day of idle capacity. Whether it hints at increasing production in the fourth quarter will directly affect the medium - and long - term oil price trend. The market generally expects OPEC+ to approve a production increase of 54.8 million barrels per day in September, which may exacerbate the concern of oversupply. OPEC+ decisions usually have a 4 - 6 - week impact on oil prices, longer than the short - term impact of geopolitical events [9]. Viewpoint Summary: Short - Term Disturbances Do Not Change the Medium - Term Pattern - Trump's tariff threat is a short - term emotional shock. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. As the OPEC+ meeting approaches, the market logic is shifting from geopolitical gaming to fundamentals. The global crude oil market shows a "tight balance" feature, and factors such as stable US shale oil production and rising OECD inventories restrict the upside space of oil prices. Investors should rationally view the current geopolitical premium, hedge the emotional premium in the short term, and focus on structural opportunities after the OPEC+ meeting in the medium term [12].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

EnglishItalianoEspañolPortuguêsDeutschالعربيةFrançaisImportant DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - OPEC+ has decided to increase the daily production by 548,000 barrels in August and is expected to increase by about 550,000 barrels in September. However, the increase in OPEC's production quota does not equal the increase in actual production, and the actual production increase is still in the hands of Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia intends to control oil prices, the actual production increase will be slow. Although OPEC is further lifting production restrictions, the oil price showed a trend of first falling and then rising instead of a sharp decline [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 93 cents to $67.93 per barrel, a 1.39% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.28 to $69.58 per barrel, a 1.87% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 2.13% at 512 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August. The monthly production increase approved in May, June, and July was 411,000 barrels per day, and 138,000 barrels per day in April. Since April, the production released by OPEC+ will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, and only 280,000 barrels per day of the previously voluntarily cut 2.2 million barrels per day remains unrecovered. It is reported that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will approve another significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3 [1] - Analyst Priyanka Sachdeva of financial institution Phillip Nova pointed out that the continuous uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy will continue to put pressure on oil prices. The current oil price has declined under pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to increase crude oil production in August more than expected. The only factor supporting the oil price is the weakening of the US dollar [1] - Ukraine used long - range drones to attack a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. The refinery is one of the major oil - processing companies in southern Russia [1] - The first round of the Gaza cease - fire negotiation in Doha ended without an agreement. The Israeli negotiation team did not have sufficient authorization to reach an agreement with Hamas [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said it is "highly likely" to list a new oil pipeline to the west coast of Canada as a national construction project. A few weeks ago, the Canadian Parliament passed Bill C - 5, which simplifies the approval process for national important development projects [1] Investment Logic - Although OPEC decides to further lift the production limit by 550,000 barrels per day starting from August and will completely lift the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production limit before October, the oil price did not drop significantly. The actual production increase is still in the hands of Saudi Arabia, and if it wants to control the oil price, the actual production increase will be slow [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events; upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term strategy for oil prices is to wait and see as they are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations, and the medium - term strategy is to take a short position [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent significant declines in US commercial crude oil inventories are due to a combination of factors including slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports. The wildfires in Canada previously led to supply reduction, but with the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and future North American supply may mainly rely on the growth of Canadian oil sands production capacity [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 55 cents to $64.92 per barrel, a 0.85% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 54 cents to $67.68 per barrel, a 0.80% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.77% at 505 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending June 23, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 19.12 million barrels, a 3.8% increase from the previous week, hitting a five - week high. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.332 million barrels to 6.738 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 0.151 million barrels to 2.044 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.882 million barrels to 10.338 million barrels [1] - Brazil will raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% and the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% [1] - For the week ending June 20 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels (expected - 0.797 million barrels, previous value - 11.473 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.464 million barrels (previous value - 0.995 million barrels); US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.44 million barrels per day from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 1.39% decrease [1] - US President Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. He believes the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but it may break out again. He doesn't think Iran will resume its nuclear program. The US will not give up pressuring Iran and will not take over oil [1] Investment Logic - The recent significant decline in US commercial crude oil inventories is due to slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports, especially the supply reduction caused by Canadian wildfires. With the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and this year's US crude oil export data has reflected this feature, with net export volume of shipments no longer contributing to the increment [2] Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see as oil prices are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations; Medium - term: Take a short position [3] Risk - Downside risks: Faster OPEC production increase rhythm, macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tariff threats persist, causing oil prices to decline again. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies impacts the global economy, trade, and investment prospects, further suppressing already low oil consumption this year, especially in emerging economies. Supply growth is expected to significantly exceed demand, with oil consumption growth not exceeding 500,000 barrels per day year - on - year [1][2]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered global crude oil demand and price expectations for WTI and Brent crude for this year and next [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's May - delivery light crude oil futures dropped $2.28 to $60.07 per barrel, a 3.66% decline; June - delivery London Brent crude futures fell $2.15 to $63.33 per barrel, a 3.28% decline. SC crude's main contract rose 0.41% to 464 yuan per barrel [1]. - U.S. shale oil producers face the most severe threat in years. Since Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs last week, U.S. oil prices have fallen 12%, below the break - even level for many Texas producers, and OPEC's recent decision to increase production has also raised concerns [1]. - EU Commission President von der Leyen welcomed Trump's decision to suspend tariffs on other countries' goods for 90 days. She reiterated the EU's "zero - for - zero" tariff proposal to the U.S. government [1]. - An Iranian official said that if foreign military threats continue, Iran may expel international nuclear inspectors and move enriched uranium to secret locations. Trump said he would consider military action against Iran if it weaponizes its nuclear program [1]. - The EIA's short - term energy outlook report lowered global crude oil demand and price expectations for WTI and Brent crude for this year and next, and predicted that OPEC + oil production will remain basically unchanged this year while global oil inventories will rise [1]. - The EU and the UAE reached an agreement to start free - trade negotiations [1]. - Iran is considering proposing a temporary nuclear agreement with the U.S. before negotiating a comprehensive one, as Trump set a two - month deadline for a new nuclear agreement and threatened military action if no agreement is reached [1]. Investment Logic - After a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, Trump's threat to resume high tariffs if no agreement is reached impacts the global economy, trade, and investment. The uncertainty of tariff policies further suppresses oil consumption, especially in emerging economies. Supply growth is expected to far exceed demand [2]. Strategy - Affected by macro events, oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3]. Risks - Downside risks include significant OPEC production increases and macro black - swan events. - Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [3].