Core Viewpoint - Nu Holdings, the parent company of Nubank, faces challenges in the near term despite recent stock recovery, driven by macroeconomic factors and market saturation [1][2]. Growth Metrics - From the end of 2021 to Q2 2025, Nu's customer base grew from 33.3 million to 122.7 million, with an activity rate increase from 76% to 83% and ARPAC rising from $4.50 to $12.20 [4]. - Revenue grew at a CAGR of 89% from 2021 to 2024, achieving profitability in 2023 with a net income increase of 91% in 2024 [5]. Recent Performance - Despite challenges, Nu's activity rate remains stable, ARPAC is increasing, and average costs to serve active customers are below $1 [6]. - Year-over-year customer growth has slowed from 25% in Q2 2024 to 17% in Q2 2025, attributed to market saturation and increased competition [8]. Financial Metrics - Gross margin decreased from 48% in Q2 2024 to 42.2% in Q2 2025, while net interest margin declined from 19.8% to 17.7% over the same period [10]. - Net income growth has also slowed, with a year-over-year increase of 42% in Q2 2025 compared to 77% in Q2 2024 [10]. Future Projections - Analysts project revenue and EPS growth of 29% and 36% respectively for 2025, and 24% and 38% for 2026 [11]. - If Nu meets these expectations and trades at 25 times forward earnings, the stock could rise approximately 46% to $19 within the next year, contingent on economic stability in Brazil and controlled expansion in Mexico and Colombia [12].