Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics has decided to extend the production cycle of DDR4 DRAM chips until December 2026, replacing the original plan to cease production by the end of 2025, driven by significant changes in market supply-demand dynamics and competition in technology routes [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Samsung's delay in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) development has led to a loss of market share to SK Hynix and Micron, as its HBM3E product failed to pass critical certification from Nvidia [1]. - The DDR4 market is experiencing a rare supply shortage and price surge, with the spot price of DDR4 16Gb chips reaching $12 in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 100%, even surpassing the price of DDR5 products of the same capacity [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Samsung plans to utilize its depreciated 1z nm process line to continue producing DDR4, maintaining high profit margins while reducing wafer production of HBM3E from 70,000-80,000 per month to 30,000-40,000 to avoid inventory buildup [3]. - This strategy alleviates the supply tightness of DDR4 and provides Samsung with a time window to address uncertainties in the HBM market [3]. Group 3: Competitor Strategies - SK Hynix and Micron are focusing on HBM and DDR5, with SK Hynix planning to reach a monthly capacity of 150,000 wafers by the end of 2025 and advance the mass production of HBM4 to solidify its technological advantage [3]. - Micron is accelerating the mass production of HBM3E, expecting its market share to approach its overall DRAM market share by the second half of 2025 [3]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Pricing Outlook - Taiwanese manufacturers like Nanya Technology and Winbond are filling the DDR4 capacity gap, with Nanya achieving full production of its 8Gb DDR4 products and Winbond planning to ramp up production of its 8Gb DDR4 products in the second half of the year [5]. - In the short term (Q3-Q4 2025), the price increase of DDR4 may narrow from 40%-45% in Q3 to 10%-15% in Q4, while contract prices will remain high [6]. - In the medium term (2026), the supply tightness of DDR4 is expected to persist, with prices rising by 20%-30% compared to 2025, while the HBM market may enter a price war phase [6]. Group 5: Long-term Market Trends - The commercialization of DDR6 will accelerate the adoption of DDR5, but DDR4 will continue to exist in industrial and automotive markets until 2030 [6]. - Despite HBM representing the future direction, its technological barriers and market concentration make it difficult for newcomers to break through quickly, while the price increase of DDR4 indicates the strategic value of mature processes in emerging demand areas like AI servers and electric vehicles [6].