证券研究报告 科技 SEMICON Korea 前线：从炸鸡店到 存储超级周期 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 25 日│中国内地 专题研究 科技 增持 (维持) 黄乐平，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050001 SFC No. AUZ066 leping.huang@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 何翩翩 研究员 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 陈旭东 研究员 SAC No. S0570521070004 SFC No. BPH392 +(86) 21 2897 2228 于可熠 研究员 SAC No. S0570525030001 yukeyi@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 易楚妍 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 yichuyan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 重点推荐 | | ...

当前DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）与NAND（闪存）库存仅够维持约4周，价格持续上涨已成定 局……2026年马年春节刚过，全球存储巨头SK海力士的最新发声，让全球存储市场的涨价潮再度升 温。2月24日，A股存储概念股持续走高，北京君正、太极实业、香农芯创等个股涨幅均超过5%。 在AI及算力发展浪潮的驱动下，自2025年第三季度起，全球存储市场迎来涨价行情。业内人士普遍预 计，全球存储芯片涨价将持续2026年一整年。 在产业高景气背景下，中国存储产业正加速突围，长江存储、长鑫科技等企业在技术、产能上持续突 破，国产模组厂商同步发力，中国存储力量的崛起正成为影响全球存储格局、决定行业发展走向的"胜 负手"。 事实上，自2025年第二季度起，全球存储行业景气度开始触底反弹，闪迪打响NAND涨价第一枪后，三 星、美光及长江存储、兆易创新等存储厂商（包括NAND、DRAM）纷纷跟进上调价格。 巨头最新发声：库存仅剩约4周 2月20日，SK海力士举行虚拟投资者会议，向高盛透露了最新的数据及对产业趋势的研判。 SK海力士表示，当前公司DRAM及NAND整体库存仅剩约4周，处于历史极低水平，从谷歌、微软等云 厂商，到Open ...

2月19日，据外媒报道，三星正就其最新一代人工智能存储芯片的定价进行谈判，计划将其HBM4组件 的售价定在约700美元，较HBM3E高出20%至30%。 受消息影响，韩国存储芯片巨头三星电子当日股价再度创下历史新高，盘中一度涨超5%。彭博分析师 Masahiro Wakasugi表示，700美元的定价意味着三星HBM4的营业利润率高达50%至60%。 存储厂商夺回定价话语权 面对人工智能驱动的内存芯片需求激增，韩国两大存储巨头三星电子与SK海力士正加速推进新建晶圆 厂的投产进程，战略重心由此前的谨慎控货转向积极扩产。 据韩媒报道，SK海力士计划将其龙仁一期晶圆厂的试运行时间提前至明年2月至3月，在竣工日期前着 手启动。三星电子亦将平泽P4工厂的投产时间从明年一季度提前至今年四季度，生产规划前移约3个 月。两家公司均将在新产线重点部署高附加值产品，如高性能DRAM与HBM。 市场人士分析称，两家公司加速扩产的核心驱动力是AI数据中心扩张导致的服务器高性能DRAM需求 激增。由于生产线集中生产高附加值的HBM芯片，通用DRAM的产量相对减少，加剧了供应紧张。 Omdia数据显示，三星电子的DRAM年产能（以晶圆计 ...

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics' stock price reached a new high, driven by plans to increase the price of its HBM4 components by 20% to 30% compared to HBM3E [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Samsung Electronics' stock rose over 8%, reaching a peak of 229.8 HKD, marking a record high since its listing [1] - The company plans to set the price of its HBM4 components at approximately 700 USD, which is significantly higher than previous models [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - SK Hynix is also expected to price its HBM4 components at elevated levels, indicating a trend in the memory chip market [1] - Citigroup's recent report highlights that the growth in CPU server demand and advancements in AI applications may drive increased usage of DIMM memory modules, benefiting companies like 澜起科技 [1] - Citigroup has given 澜起科技 a "Buy" rating with a target price of 205 HKD, suggesting a potential earnings growth of approximately 54 times from the second half of this year to the first half of next year [1]

花旗近期研报指出，基于CPU的伺服器需求增长，智能体AI应用新发展也可能被催化，带动更多DIMM 记忆体模组使用，对澜起科技记忆体介面业务带来上行空间，推动今明两年盈利增长。花旗目前给予澜 起科技"买入"评级，目标价为205港元，对应今年下半年至明年上半年预测市盈率约54倍。 智通财经APP获悉，澜起科技(06809)一度涨超8%，高见229.8港元创上市以来新高。截至发稿，涨 3.79%，报219港元，成交额3.56亿港元。 消息面上，周四，韩国存储芯片巨头三星电子股价再度创下历史新高。有报道称，三星计划将其HBM4 组件的售价定在约700 美元，较HBM3E高出20%至30%。报道还称，SK海力士预计也将把HBM4的价格 定在更高水平。 ...

值得注意的是，SK海力士去年8月向英伟达供应HBM4时单价约为500美元，仅半年后价格便再度大幅 攀升。彭博情报分析师Masahiro Wakasugi在报告中写道，700美元的定价意味着三星HBM4的营业利润 率高达50%至60%。"如果三星向英伟达供应更多HBM芯片，2026年三星与SK海力士的平均售价差距将 会缩小，因为面向英伟达的（芯片）定价会高于其他客户。" HBM4报价走高的背后，是AI驱动的存储芯片供需持续失衡。韩国KB证券指出："截至2月，与去年第 四季度相比，内存芯片的短缺程度进一步加剧，主要客户的订单满足率仅为60%。AI数据中心企业占据 了三星内存出货量的70%。"面对需求激增，三星与SK海力士均已提前推进扩产计划——三星将平泽P4 工厂投产时间前移约三个月至今年四季度，SK海力士则计划将龙仁一期晶圆厂试运行提前至明年2至3 月。 2月20日，受三星电子HBM4芯片涨价消息提振，港股存储概念股走强，其中澜起科技（06809.HK）盘 中一度涨超8%。 据韩国《朝鲜日报》报道，三星电子正就其最新一代高带宽内存芯片HBM4展开定价谈判，计划将单颗 售价定在约700美元，较上一代HBM3E高出 ...

芯片股，再度走高！ 今日（2月19日），在芯片股的带动下，韩国股市大幅走高。其中，韩国KOSPI指数一度涨超3%，再创 历史新高。三星电子一度涨超5%，SK海力士涨超2%。 有消息称，三星电子新一代高带宽存储芯片HBM4价格已飙升至700美元，较HBM3E高出20%至30%， SK海力士预计也将把HBM4的价格定在同一水平。而去年8月，SK海力士向英伟达供应的HBM4单价约 为500美元。 芯片股大涨，韩国股市创新高 周四，亚太股市多数上涨，韩国股市走势最为强劲，再创新高。 截至券商中国记者发稿时，韩国KOSPI指数上涨2.68%报5653点。存储芯片概念股集体走强，三星电子 涨4.72%，SK海力士涨2.16%。重工业、建筑等板块也走高，现代重工涨超7%，斗山集团涨近6%，大 宇建设、现代建设涨超4%。 据外媒消息，在存储芯片持续供应短缺的背景下，三星电子推出的新一代高带宽存储芯片HBM4供货价 据报已上涨至700美元（约合101万韩元）。即将开始量产HBM4的SK海力士预计也将把价格定在同一 水平，这令市场预测两家公司今年第一季度的营业利润均有望达到"30万亿韩元"。 据报道，三星电子自本月12日起全球率 ...

Key Takeaways Micron Technology posted 57% revenue growth in Q1 FY26, with EPS up 167% year over year.2026 estimates for MU call for 99.7% revenue growth and 307.5% EPS growth.TSM expects AI revenue CAGR above 50% but faces margin pressure from global expansion.Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) are key players in the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor ecosystem, benefiting from surging demand for data center and AI-driven computing. Micron provides the ...

Micron logo on a silicon wafer, highlighting MU memory-chip demand driven by AI and data-center spending. Key Points Micron’s early-2026 pause is framed as consolidation, with the draft pointing to technicals, analyst target trends, and institutional activity as support. The near-term setup hinges on earnings read-through from NVIDIA and Micron, especially around HBM production ramps and capacity expansion. Improved cash flow, debt reduction, and buybacks are presented as key supports, while capacity l ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology's stock price surged by 9.9% after CFO Mark Murphy announced the mass production of the highly anticipated HBM4 memory chips, addressing concerns about losing market share to competitors like Samsung [1][4]. Group 1: HBM Market Dynamics - Micron confirmed that its HBM capacity for 2026 is fully booked, indicating a supply-demand imbalance that is expected to persist until at least 2028, countering fears of market share loss to Samsung [1][4]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for HBM is projected to reach $100 billion by 2028, tripling from $35 billion in 2025, highlighting significant growth potential [2]. - The company emphasized that the HBM market is characterized by incremental growth rather than a zero-sum game, suggesting a favorable environment for all players involved [1][4]. Group 2: Financial Projections and Valuation - Morgan Stanley raised Micron's target price from $350 to $450, indicating a potential upside of approximately 28.6%, driven by strong demand in the AI sector [2][7]. - Analysts predict that Micron's earnings per share (EPS) could exceed $52 in the calendar year 2026, reflecting a significant increase in profitability due to supply constraints and pricing power [7][10]. - The current market conditions have led to a re-evaluation of Micron's valuation, with a new cross-cycle EPS estimate of $18, suggesting a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times, which supports the revised target price [11][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Insights - Micron's production of HBM4 is on track, with initial shipments expected to ramp up in the first quarter of the calendar year, ahead of previous guidance [4][18]. - The company is experiencing a supply shortage across various memory types, impacting sectors like personal computers and smartphones, with tight supply conditions expected to continue beyond 2026 [6][10]. - The demand for high-bandwidth memory is driven by AI applications, necessitating higher performance and efficiency in memory solutions, which Micron is well-positioned to provide [20][22]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Market Sentiment - Concerns regarding competition from Chinese memory manufacturers and the potential impact on HBM4 production have been deemed exaggerated, with Micron maintaining confidence in its technological execution [15][46]. - The market has underestimated the extent of the current memory chip shortage, with significant price increases observed across DRAM and NAND products, further solidifying Micron's market position [8][10]. - The ongoing AI supercycle is reshaping traditional valuation frameworks, positioning Micron favorably for both profitability and valuation expansion [2][7].