2026 年 03 月 28 日 研 DoorDash（DASH）：订单与 GOV 维持高增，规模效 应驱动盈利能力持续释放 究 报 告 推荐(维持) 事件 | 分析师：任春阳 | S1050521110006 | | --- | --- | | rency@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：谢孟津 | S1050525120001 | | xiemj@cfsc.com.cn | | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机(申万) | | -13.7 | -5.2 | 2.7 | | 沪深 | 300 | -4.4 | -3.3 | 15.0 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 5.4mini 与 nano 轻 量 登 场 ， SkyReels-V4 登顶视频大模型榜首》 2026-03-25 2、《（Netflix）：25Q4 业绩稳健 兑现，内容与广告双轮驱动，平台 化变现能力持续增强》2026-03-23 3、《微软（Microsoft）：云与 AI 维 持 高 景 气 ， ...

Company Overview - DoorDash, Inc. has a market cap of $73.6 billion and operates as a commerce platform connecting merchants, consumers, and delivery drivers through online marketplaces in the U.S. and internationally [1] - The company runs platforms such as DoorDash Marketplace, Wolt Marketplace, and Deliveroo Marketplace, providing services like order fulfillment, payment processing, customer acquisition, and customer support [1][2] Market Position - DoorDash is classified as a "large-cap" stock, valued at $10 billion or more, and offers membership programs like DashPass, Wolt+, and Deliveroo Plus, along with advertising and white-label delivery services for merchants [2] Stock Performance - Shares of DoorDash have declined 41.2% from their 52-week high of $285.50 and have dropped 26.4% over the past three months, underperforming the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLY) 6.3% decrease during the same period [3] - Year-to-date, DoorDash shares have fallen 26%, lagging behind XLY's 5.3% dip, and over the past 52 weeks, the stock has decreased by 10.8%, while XLY has gained 14.5% [6] Financial Performance - Following its Q4 2025 results, DoorDash shares rose 1.6%, with revenue increasing 38% year-over-year to $3.96 billion and total orders rising 32% to 903 million [7] - Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) jumped 39% to $29.7 billion, with net income climbing 51% year-over-year to $213 million and adjusted EBITDA increasing 38% to $780 million [7] User Engagement - The company reported strong platform momentum with over 56 million monthly active users and more than 35 million members across DashPass, Wolt+, and Deliveroo Plus in 2025 [8] - DoorDash continues to expand internationally and in grocery retail, indicating growth potential in these sectors [8]

Core Insights - DoorDash is exiting operations in Qatar, Singapore, Japan, and Uzbekistan under its Deliveroo and Wolt brands, following a multi-month review of country-specific conditions [1][1][1] - The company aims to focus on markets where it sees the clearest path to sustainable scale and long-term leadership, while supporting local teams and partners during the transition [1][1][1] - DoorDash does not expect these exits to materially impact its financial outlook, maintaining guidance provided on February 18, 2026 [1][1][1] Company Operations - The wind-down process will be orderly, with efforts to support employees, merchants, consumers, riders, and couriers in the affected countries [1][1] - Limited operational changes will be implemented in select locations, including investments in certain engineering roles in the UK [1][1] - DoorDash continues to expand its international presence, now including Deliveroo and Wolt, and aims to combine global scale with local expertise [1][1][1]

Core Insights - DoorDash reported fourth quarter results that slightly missed Wall Street's expectations on both revenue and earnings per share, but total orders exceeded forecasts [1][2] Financial Performance - Earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $0.48, compared to the expected $0.55 [1] - Revenue grew 28% year over year to $3.96 billion, slightly below the nearly $4 billion forecasted by Wall Street [2] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $780 million, up 38% year over year and nearly $5 million above estimates [1] Order Metrics - Total orders increased by 32% to 903 million, surpassing the anticipated 888 million [2] - Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) was $29.7 billion, exceeding the expected $29.1 billion, driven by new customer growth and increased order rates in the US restaurant category [3] Future Guidance - For the first quarter of 2026, DoorDash expects marketplace GOV to be between $31.0 billion and $31.8 billion, above the Street's forecast of $30.75 billion [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter is projected to be between $675 million and $775 million, which is below the Street's prediction of $800 million [4] Stock Performance - Following the results, DoorDash's stock fell as much as 8%, and shares had already lost about 20% year-to-date through Wednesday's close [3]

Core Insights - DoorDash reported fourth quarter results that slightly missed Wall Street's expectations on both earnings and revenue, but total orders exceeded forecasts [1][2] Financial Performance - Earnings per share for the quarter were $0.48, compared to the expected $0.55 [1] - Revenue grew 28% year over year to $3.96 billion, slightly below the nearly $4 billion forecast [2] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $780 million, up 38% year over year and nearly $5 million above estimates [1] Order Metrics - Total orders increased by 32% to 903 million, surpassing the anticipated 888 million [2] - Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) was $29.7 billion, exceeding the expected $29.1 billion, driven by new customer growth and increased order rates in the US restaurant category [3] Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, the company expects marketplace GOV to be between $31.0 billion and $31.8 billion, above the Street's forecast of $30.75 billion [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 is projected to be between $675 million and $775 million, below the Street's prediction of $800 million [4] Stock Performance - Following the results, DoorDash's stock fell as much as 8%, with shares down approximately 20% year-to-date through Wednesday's close [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects 2026 EBITDA margin to be slightly up compared to 2025, excluding the impact of the Deliveroo acquisition, which is projected to contribute about $200 million of EBITDA [10][11][12] - The U.S. restaurant business continues to show strong performance, with contribution margins up year-over-year in Q4 [41][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The new verticals business, including retail and grocery, had a strong quarter and is the fastest growing in the U.S. among third-party peers, with 30% of miles ordered from categories outside of restaurants [24][48] - The company is focused on improving unit economics in the retail and grocery business, expecting it to be unit economic positive in the second half of the year [24][41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has not seen an impact on growth from competition in the grocery sector, continuing to achieve high growth rates [47] - The company is expanding its fulfillment services to enhance quality and compete against larger players like Amazon [50] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build an operating system for local commerce, integrating software, warehousing, and delivery services to support small and medium businesses [19][22] - Investments are being made in autonomous delivery vehicles and technology to improve operational efficiency and customer experience [39][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management feels confident about the company's position in Europe, reporting faster growth compared to the U.S. and successful integration of the Deliveroo acquisition [8][9] - The company is focused on maximizing long-term free cash flow through strategic investments in technology and service offerings [11][12] Other Important Information - The company is transitioning to a single tech stack to improve efficiency and speed of feature development across markets [60][76] - The DashPass program is seen as critical for driving customer engagement and order frequency, with plans to enhance its value proposition [66][69] Q&A Session Summary Question: Competitive intensity in Europe and investment levels for 2026 and 2027 - Management reported strong growth in Europe and indicated that investment levels will be similar to previous expectations, with some costs extending into 2027 [8][10] Question: Details on longer distance and higher effort deliveries - Management explained that investments are being made in DashMart and DashLink to enhance e-commerce capabilities and improve delivery efficiency [16][18] Question: Strategy for autonomous delivery platform - The company envisions a fleet of various delivery vehicles, both autonomous and traditional, to optimize delivery operations [39][40] Question: Reasons for lower unit economics improvement in the U.S. restaurant business - Management indicated that while the restaurant business remains strong, growth in unit economics will be slower due to various factors, including seasonal impacts and ongoing investments [41][42] Question: Growth in grocery and perishables amid competition - Management confirmed continued high growth rates in the grocery sector, emphasizing the importance of choice for consumers [47][50] Question: Updates on the storefront software business and tech stack - Management reported positive integration progress with SevenRooms and expects significant benefits from the tech stack transition throughout 2026 [72][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects 2026 EBITDA margin to be slightly up compared to 2025, excluding Deliveroo, which is projected to contribute about $200 million of EBITDA [10][11][39] - The U.S. restaurant business contribution margin was up year-over-year in Q4, with expectations for continued margin improvement in 2026 [41][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New verticals, including retail and grocery, had a strong quarter and year, with 30% of miles in the U.S. coming from categories outside of restaurants [24][48] - The company aims to increase the percentage of miles from grocery and retail to 100% over time, with improvements in selection and efficiency driving growth [24][41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported high growth rates in the grocery sector, with no significant impact from competition, particularly from Amazon [47][50] - The company is expanding its capabilities with DashMart Fulfillment Services to enhance quality and compete effectively against larger players [50] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building an operating system for local commerce, integrating software, warehousing, and delivery infrastructure to support small and medium businesses [19][22] - Investments are being made in autonomous delivery platforms, with a vision for a fleet of vehicles to serve both urban and suburban areas [39][85] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's position in Europe, highlighting faster growth compared to the U.S. and successful integration of Deliveroo [8][9] - The management emphasized the importance of maximizing long-term free cash flow through strategic investments in technology and service offerings [11][12] Other Important Information - The company is making significant investments in its global tech stack, with expectations for improved efficiency and feature development velocity [60][76] - The DashPass program is seen as critical for driving consumer engagement and order frequency, with plans to enhance its value proposition [66][69] Q&A Session Summary Question: Competitive intensity in Europe and investment levels for 2026 and 2027 - Management noted strong positioning in Europe and faster growth post-Deliveroo acquisition, with consistent investment levels expected [8][10] Question: Details on longer distance and higher effort deliveries - Management discussed the evolution of Dashers and the integration of software to support complex deliveries, emphasizing the need for improved pay models [18][22] Question: Strategy for autonomous delivery platform - Management outlined plans for a fleet of delivery vehicles, emphasizing the orchestration of deliveries between Dashers and autonomous vehicles [39][40] Question: Reasons for lower unit economics improvement in U.S. restaurant business - Management indicated that while margins are improving, the pace will be slower due to ongoing investments and seasonal factors [41][42] Question: Growth in grocery and perishables amid competition - Management reported continued high growth rates in grocery, asserting that consumer preference for choice supports their strategy [47][50] Question: Insights from Deliveroo acquisition - Management highlighted early successes and identified numerous small improvements that can enhance customer offerings [58][59] Question: Update on storefront software business and tech stack timing - Management confirmed positive integration with SevenRooms and expects significant tech stack benefits to materialize throughout 2026 [72][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong performance in Q4 2025, with the U.S. restaurant business showing a year-over-year increase in contribution margin [42] - The EBITDA margin for 2026 is expected to be slightly higher compared to 2025, excluding the impact of the Deliveroo acquisition, which is projected to contribute approximately $200 million to EBITDA [8][87] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The new verticals business, which includes retail and grocery, had a strong quarter and is expected to achieve unit economic positivity in the second half of the year [22][24] - The company is seeing continued growth in categories outside of restaurants, with 30% of miles ordered from these new verticals [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has not observed any negative impact on growth from competitors like Amazon in the grocery sector, maintaining high growth rates [48] - The company is expanding its fulfillment services to enhance quality and compete effectively against larger players [51] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build an operating system for local commerce, focusing on software, warehousing, and delivery infrastructure to support small and medium businesses [15][19] - Investments are being made in autonomous delivery vehicles and technology to improve operational efficiency and customer experience [39][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's position in Europe, highlighting faster growth compared to the U.S. and successful integration of the Deliveroo acquisition [6][7] - The company anticipates continued improvements in margins and profitability, despite some expected lower growth rates in the U.S. restaurant business due to increased investments [42][43] Other Important Information - The company is focusing on enhancing the DashPass subscription service, which is critical for driving customer engagement and order frequency [66][69] - The integration of SevenRooms is expected to accelerate the growth of the storefront software business, improving venue addition rates significantly [72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Competitive intensity in Europe and investment levels for 2026 and 2027 - Management noted strong positioning in Europe and faster growth post-Deliveroo acquisition, with investment levels expected to remain consistent into 2027 [6][8] Question: Details on longer distance and higher effort deliveries - Management explained that investments are being made to support complex deliveries, including grocery and retail, enhancing the overall delivery experience [13][20] Question: Strategy for autonomous delivery platform - The company is developing a fleet of autonomous vehicles for diverse delivery needs, with ongoing live deliveries already taking place [39][40] Question: Impact of higher Dasher costs on Q1 margins - Management indicated that Q1 margins would be impacted by seasonal factors and front-loaded investments, but overall Dasher costs as a percentage of gross order value are expected to show leverage [52][53] Question: Updates on the Deliveroo acquisition and tech platform modernization - Management highlighted positive early results from the Deliveroo acquisition and ongoing improvements in tech platform efficiency, with benefits expected to materialize throughout 2026 [58][60]

DoorDash (DASH) reported fourth quarter results that slightly missed Wall Street's expectations on the top and bottom lines, while total orders rose more than forecast. Earnings per share came in at $0.48, compared with the $0.55 the Street had forecast. But adjusted EBITDA reached $780 million in the quarter — up 38% compared to a year ago and almost $5 million above the Street's estimates. Meanwhile, revenue grew 28% year over year to $3.96 billion, a tick lower than the nearly $4 billion Wall Street p ...

DoorDash (DASH) stock rose 13% during premarket hours on Thursday after announcing on Wednesday that its revenue rose 38% in the fourth quarter as it gained new U.S. customers and added new services like restaurant reservations. But the San Francisco-based delivery company also warned of costly investments ahead. DoorDash CEO and Co-founder Tony Xu said DoorDash is in the midst of building a single tech platform that will bring together its many international businesses. DoorDash bought Wolt, a Finnish de ...