Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing turbulence, particularly affecting Tesla, which has seen a 40% drop in shares this year. This situation may create opportunities for smaller EV manufacturers like Rivian, Nio, and Polestar to gain market share and investor interest [2]. Rivian - Rivian's vehicle deliveries surged by 147% to 50,122 in 2023 but are projected to rise only 3% to 51,759 in 2024 due to supply chain constraints and competition [3][4]. - For 2025, Rivian aims to deliver between 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles as it faces additional plant shutdowns and component shortages [4]. - Despite a challenging outlook, Rivian's gross margin improved from negative 188% in 2022 to negative 24% in 2024, with expectations of a modest gross profit in 2025 driven by lower manufacturing costs and higher-margin software sales [5]. - Rivian's enterprise value is $12.6 billion, trading at 2.3 times this year's sales, which is significantly lower than Tesla's 6.9 times [6]. Nio - Nio's deliveries grew by 39% to 221,970 vehicles in 2024, recovering from a slowdown attributed to supply chain issues and competition [8]. - The company launched the lower-end Onvo L60, priced at $20,500, which resembles Tesla's Model Y, contributing to its market share growth [8]. - Nio's annual vehicle margin improved from 9.5% in 2023 to 12.3% in 2024, aided by a higher mix of premium vehicle sales [8]. - Nio has an enterprise value of $8.9 billion, trading at 0.7 times this year's sales, indicating a potentially attractive investment opportunity [9]. Polestar - Polestar's deliveries increased by 6% in 2023 after an 80% surge in 2022, facing delays in launching the Polestar 3 due to software issues [11]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline in the "mid-teens" for 2024, impacted by slower sales in a challenging market [11]. - Polestar is offering "Trade in Your Tesla" deals of up to $20,000, which may attract customers as Tesla's brand perception declines [12]. - Analysts project Polestar's revenue to more than double in 2025 with the launch of the Polestar 5 and expansion of manufacturing facilities [13]. - Polestar's enterprise value is $4.6 billion, trading at 1.0 times its projected sales for 2025, suggesting significant upside potential if operational issues are resolved [13].

Core Insights - Nio and Rivian, once leading electric vehicle stocks, have seen significant declines in their stock prices due to lower vehicle deliveries and substantial losses [2][14] - Nio is experiencing a recovery in its business with increasing deliveries and expanding vehicle margins, while Rivian is facing challenges with production and supply chain issues [2][8] Nio Overview - Nio's vehicle deliveries have grown significantly from 20,565 in 2019 to an expected 221,970 in 2024, with a peak growth rate of 113% in 2020 [4] - The company has faced challenges in 2022 and 2023, including supply chain issues and competition, leading to a decline in vehicle margins from 20.1% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2023 [3][4] - Nio's recent product launches, including the lower-end Onvo L60 and the Firefly hatchback, are expected to drive future growth [6][4] - Analysts project Nio's revenue to increase by 38% in 2025 and 32% in 2026, despite remaining unprofitable [7] Rivian Overview - Rivian's vehicle deliveries increased from 920 in 2021 to 50,122 in 2023, but growth is expected to stall in 2024 due to production shutdowns for upgrades [10] - The company has struggled with negative gross margins, which improved from -845.5% in 2021 to -24.1% in 2024, but profitability is still not expected soon [10][12] - Rivian anticipates delivering between 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles in 2025, with the launch of the R2 SUV planned for 2026 [11] - Analysts expect Rivian's revenue growth to be modest at 8% in 2025, with a potential increase of 40% in 2026 [13] Investment Comparison - Nio is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its higher vehicle deliveries, clearer future plans, and lower valuations compared to Rivian [14] - Rivian's future performance is uncertain, particularly with the upcoming R2 launch, making it a riskier investment at this time [14]

Core Viewpoint - Nio's stock appears undervalued, trading below its IPO price, but faces challenges in delivering consistent growth and profitability [1][2][11]. Delivery Performance - Nio's annual deliveries surged nearly 11-fold from 2019 to 2024, but growth decelerated significantly in 2022 and 2023 due to supply chain constraints, competition, and economic slowdown [3][4]. - Deliveries: 20,565 in 2019, 43,728 in 2020, 91,429 in 2021, 122,486 in 2022, 160,038 in 2023, and projected 221,970 in 2024 [4]. Financial Metrics - Nio's vehicle margin decreased from a record high of 20.2% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2023, while annual net loss more than quadrupled from 2021 to 2023 [4][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2023 to 2026, with a projected revenue of 97.6 billion yuan ($13.5 billion) for 2025 [9][10]. Market Position and Strategy - Nio differentiates itself with swappable batteries and has launched new models like the Onvo L60 and Firefly to capture market share [2][6][8]. - The company is expanding in Europe despite facing higher tariffs on Chinese-made EVs [6][8]. Margin Recovery - Quarterly vehicle margins improved in 2024, increasing from 9.2% in Q1 to 13.1% in Q3, with expectations to reach 15% in Q4 [7][9]. Valuation and Investment Potential - Nio's enterprise value is 76.9 billion yuan ($10.9 billion), trading at less than 1 times its projected sales for 2025, compared to Tesla's 6 times [10]. - Persistent U.S.-China tensions and market cooling are affecting Nio's valuations, but easing pressures could lead to a revaluation as a growth stock [11][12].