EC2604期货合约
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永安期货集运早报-20251124
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 05:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The valuation of contract EC2512 is moderately low, and the open interest has significantly decreased. It will gradually follow the delivery logic [3][15]. - For contract EC2604, it is still recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [3][15]. - The overall freight volume between China and Europe this year is good, but it is difficult to prove or disprove the so - called "weak peak season" in the short term. Since the Spring Festival is later this year, it is normal for the peak season to start late. Although the high shipping capacity from December to January may suppress the price increase of contract EC2602, an overly pessimistic outlook is not given. The situation of peak - season cargo collection should be observed. Freight rates usually peak 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival. If the rush - season demand is gradually fulfilled, contract EC2602 may have more upside potential [3][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of contracts EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 are 1773.9, 1556.1, 1133.2, 1350.0, 1474.3, and 1099.1 respectively, with daily changes of - 0.10%, - 4.59%, - 2.56%, - 2.25%, - 2.04%, and - 0.89% [2][14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of these contracts are 1997, 28701, 2776, 275, 246, and 448 respectively, and the open interests are 7323, 43433, 15961, 1565, 1324, and 2597 respectively, with changes of - 7/ - 37, 1404, - 53, - 10, 100, and 104 [2][14]. - **Month - spreads**: The month - spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 are 640.7, 217.8, and 422.9 respectively, with daily changes of 28.0, 7/3.1, and - 45.1, and week - on - week changes of 28.7, 6745, and - 38.8 [2][14]. Spot Market Indicators - **SCHIS**: Published every Monday. As of November 17, 2025, it was 1357.67 points, down 9.78% from the previous period and up 24.50% from the period before the previous one [2][14]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Published every Friday. As of November 21, 2025, it was 1367 dollars/TEU, down 3.5% from the previous period and up 7.11% from the period before the previous one [2][14]. - **CCFI**: Published every Friday. As of November 21, 2025, it was 1432.96 points, up 2.09% from the previous period and up 2.69% from the period before the previous one [2][14]. - **NCFI**: Published on a certain day (unclear in the text). As of November 21, 2025, it was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period and up 7.42% from the period before the previous one [2][14]. Recent Spot Situation of European Lines - In Week 48, the overall average was about 2200 US dollars (equivalent to about 1540 points). In Week 49, the rates of the GEMINI and PA alliances were between 2400 - 2500 US dollars, while the OA alliance had not adjusted its price yet, with an average of about 2450 US dollars (equivalent to about 1700 points). It is expected that prices will be raised for December this week, and there will be price hikes in the second half of December [4][16]. Related News On November 24, the Hamas delegation discussed the Gaza situation with the Egyptian side. On the 23rd, according to a statement from Hamas, several high - level members of the organization held talks in Cairo with the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service and the main mediator of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, Rashad. Hamas stated that it had fulfilled its commitments in the first phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and demanded that Israel stop violating the cease - fire agreement [5][17].