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建信期货集运指数日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:09
行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 | | | 表1:集运欧线期货9月29日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,150.8 | 1,141.0 | 1,115.0 | 1,122.0 | -35.8 | -3.11 | 16679 ...
集运早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:19
電运手机 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/9/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 雑 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1105.9 | -0.34 | -1105.9 | 19585 | | 47173 | -2436 | | | EC2512 | | 1645.3 | -1.60 | -1645.3 | 9304 | | 20570 | 183 | | | EC2602 | | 1566.1 | -0.80 | -1566.1 | 1549 | | 7215 | 110 | | | EC2604 | | 1255.2 | -2.52 | -1255.2 | 1289 | | 8534 | 200 | | | EC2606 | | 1453.5 | -1.03 | -1453.5 | | 68 | વેરૂર | 12 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 ...
集运指数(欧线):震荡市
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:27
2025 年 9 月 11 日 集运指数(欧线):震荡市 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2510 | 1,267.4 | -0.42% | 15,226 | 47,320 | 114 | 0.32 | 0.48 | | | EC2512 | 1,674.0 | -0.02% | 8,134 | 17,608 | 729 | 0.46 | 0.56 | | | EC2602 | 1,524.0 | 0.14% | 895 | 5,942 | 2 3 | 0.15 | 0.30 | | | EC2510 - EC2512 | -406.6 | | | EC2512 - E ...
集运指数(欧线):震荡走势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 03:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1st, the shipping market was affected by news that the US Court of Appeals ruled Trump's tariff increase illegal, and there was concentrated short - position reduction after the opening. The freight rate index SCFIS closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The overall market loading rate remains above the warning line, and shipping companies' profit margins are still considerable at the current FAK level, so they have no intention to increase the number of blank sailings. The freight rate center in the second week of September has dropped to around $2000 - 2100/FEU, and there may be a further reduction of $300 - 400/FEU in late September. The freight rate trend in October depends on the blank - sailing intensity [10]. - Subjectively, it is believed that the probability of the freight rate in October falling below the low of $1700/FEU in May is high, and the valuation of the 2510 contract may be below 1247.05 points. If the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping companies' cash - flow cost line of $1300 - 1600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of sailings, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [10]. - In terms of strategies, pay attention to the long - spread opportunities between the 12 - 04 and 02 - 04 contracts, and consider lightly going long on the 2512 contract around 1500 points [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance of Container Shipping Index (European Routes) - The container shipping index (European routes) showed strong performance yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1291.4 points, up 1.53%, with a reduction of 989 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1650.9 points, up 5.01%, with a reduction of 828 lots [8]. 2. Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS index closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, lower than expected, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, a decrease of 2.6%; the SCFI for the European route was $1481/TEU, a decrease of 11.2%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923/FEU, an increase of 17.0% [1]. 3. European Basic Port Freight Rates - In the second week of September, the freight rates for European basic ports remained in the range of $1900 - 2200/FEU, with an average FAK of about $2080/FEU, and the freight rate center for container volume/SPOT decreased by $100/FEU [9]. 4. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - In September, the number of blank sailings remained unchanged at 6, and there were no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity reached 298,000 TEU/week, a 6% decrease from August, significantly lower than the 14% decrease during the same period in 2024. In October, the number of pending voyages remained at 5, and there were 6 blank sailings. Without considering pending voyages, the average weekly capacity was 287,000 TEU/week [9]. - The overall market loading rate in late August was around 95%. Shipping companies generally relaxed restrictions on low - price contract bookings and special offers for large - volume shipments, which intensified price competition, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the market will continue until the end of September [9]. 5. Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of European routes stopped falling on September 10th. There was a short - term speculation on the US - West port strike in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the market gave back the "strike" premium on the first trading day after the holiday. Shipping companies successively announced price increases in November and December, with the peak freight rate occurring in the first week of December [11].
集运早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current major contradiction in the EC market lies in the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. The fundamental situation shows that in the second week of August (week33), the cargo collection of each alliance varied, with MSK showing better results, OA average, and PA poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly declined. This week, EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. Although the shipping capacity decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The average weekly shipping capacity in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 is 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sailing suspensions, it is 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU. From the perspective of the market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the market to decline further. The December contract is a peak - season contract, and the continuous roll - over of positions provides some support. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 EC Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On August 12, 2025, for EC2508, the price was 2080.0 with a 0.43% increase; EC2510 was 1408.8 with a 1.89% decrease; EC2512 was 1750.0 with a 0.57% decrease; EC2602 had an 0.87% decrease; EC2604 was 1344.9 with a 0.60% decrease; EC2606 was 1497.1 with a 0.44% increase. The corresponding trading volumes were 242, 44961, 5774, 1471, 822, and 136 respectively, and the open interests were 3330, 26688, 10238, 4202, 5295, and 770 respectively, with changes of - 102, 86, - 3867, - 108, - 108, and - 30 respectively [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 671.2, with a daily increase of 36.2 and a weekly decrease of 4.6. The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 341.2, with a daily decrease of 17.2 and a weekly decrease of 63.7. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 232.9 [2]. 3.2 Shipping Index Information - **SCEIS Index**: Updated every Monday, as of August 11, 2025, the index was 2235.48, a 2.71% decrease from the previous period and a 0.81% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **SCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1961, a 4.39% decrease from the previous period and a 1.87% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **CCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1799.05, a 0.53% increase from the previous period and a 0.13% increase from the period before the previous one [2]. - **NCFI Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1257.71, an 8.37% decrease from the previous period and a 3.53% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - August (week33 - 34). The average quotation in week33 was about $3150 (equivalent to around 2200 points on the futures market). In week34, shipping companies' quotations dropped by $200 - 300, with an average of $2850 (2000 points). Among them, the PA alliance quoted $2700, MSK quoted $2600, and the OA alliance quoted $2900 - 3000. For week35, MSK opened bookings at $2200 [2]. 3.4 Relevant News - On August 12, China and the US agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for another 90 days. The US will continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. China will also continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on US goods and take or maintain necessary measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US [2]. - On August 11, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the "plan to take over Gaza City." On August 12, Egypt and Qatar proposed a new cease - fire plan for Gaza, and a Hamas delegation will visit Egypt to restart the cease - fire negotiations [2].
永安期货集运早报-20250808
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the European line shipping market, including the supply - demand situation, freight quotes, and relevant shipping indices. In August, the European line supply pressure is increasing, and freight quotes are showing a downward trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 0.07, a volume of 3579, and an open interest change of - 121 [24]. - EC2510 had a closing price of 1420.4, a volume of 877.5, and an open interest change of - 765 [24]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1763.2, a volume of 534.7, and an open interest change of - 0.26% [24]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1505.4, a volume of 792.5, and an open interest change of 28 [24]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1346.8, a volume of 951.1, and an open interest change of - 69 [24]. - EC2606 had a closing price of - 0.77, a volume of 809.9, and an open interest change of - 11 [24]. 3.2 Shipping Indices - SCFIS (European line) on 2025/8/4 was 2297.86 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% and a two - week decrease of 3.50% [24]. - SCFI (European line) on 2025/8/1 was 2051 JT/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.87% and a week - on - two - week increase of 0.53% [24]. - CCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1803.42, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a two - week decrease of 3.53% [24]. - NCFI on 2025/8/1 was 1440.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.20% [24]. 3.3 European Line Supply - Demand and Quotes - In week 32 of August, the European line had good cargo collection but almost no cargo rejection. In week 33, the cargo collection of different alliances varied. MSK was better, OA was average, and PA was poor. MSK's freight dropped by $100, and OA and PA's shipping companies gradually cut prices by about $200 [24]. - Starting from late August, the supply pressure on the European line is very high. Week 34's capacity is 340,000 TEU, and week 35's capacity is revised down to 330,000 TEU due to the cancellation of EMC's independent - operation ship. The average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentatively) is 340,000 TEU, and 320,000 TEU without considering TBN [24]. - For week 33, the European line quote dropped to $2800 - $3200, with an average of $3000 (equivalent to about 2100 points on the futures market). For week 34, the current average quote is $2900, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the week 34 booking at $2600, a week - on - week drop of $200, and then the price rose to $2640. CMA and COSCO/OOCL lowered their prices to $2920 and $3000 respectively, and HMM cut its price to $2700 [24]. 3.4 Other Information - On 8/6, the Israeli Prime Minister announced plans to implement military control over the entire Gaza Strip, which was strongly condemned by Hamas [24]. - The release of the XSI - CJ index is postponed by three working days [24].
永安期货集运早报-20250806
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC futures contracts show different price trends, with some experiencing declines and others increases. For example, EC2508 decreased by 1.58% to 2088.8, while EC2602 increased by 1.51% to 1492.4 [2][30]. - The month - to - month spreads of EC futures also have fluctuations. For instance, the day - on - day change of EC2508 - 2510 was - 24.7, and the week - on - week change was 5.5 [2][30]. - Shipping freight indices have various trends. SCFIS decreased by 0.81% to 2297.86, SCFI decreased by 1.87% to 2051 dollars/TEU, CCFI increased by 0.13% to 1789.5 points, and NCFI decreased by 3.53% to 1372.7 points [2][30]. - In the European line, there are supply and demand issues. In August, the first - week (week32) had good cargo collection but few container usages. Week33 had different cargo collection situations among alliances, and starting from late August, the supply pressure is very high [2][30]. - The recent European line quotes show price drops among many shipping companies. For example, CMA dropped 200 dollars to 3245 dollars, and HPL dropped 300 dollars to 2835 dollars [2][30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2088.8 with a - 1.58% change, trading volume of 209.1, and an open interest of 3946 [2][30]. - EC2510 closed at 1413.0 with a - 0.62% change, trading volume of 884.9, and an open interest of 52108 with a change of - 421 [2][30]. - EC2512 closed at 1690.5 with a 0.79% change, trading volume of 607.4, and an open interest of 8208 with a change of - 179 [2][30]. - EC2602 closed at 1492.4 with a 1.51% change, trading volume of 805.5, and an open interest of 4116 with a change of - 23 [2][30]. - EC2604 closed at 1331.0 with a 1.21% change, trading volume of 966.9, and an open interest of 4195 with a change of 49 [2][30]. - EC2606 closed at 1471.6 with a 1.27% change, trading volume of 826.3, and an open interest of 789 with a change of - 6 [2][30]. 3.2 Month - to - Month Spreads of EC Futures - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 675.8, with a day - on - day change of - 24.7 and a week - on - week change of 5.5 [2][30]. - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 277.5, with a day - on - day change of - 22.1 and a week - on - week change of - 8.2 [2][30]. - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 198.1, with a day - on - day change of - 8.9 and a week - on - week change of - 7.9 [2][30]. 3.3 Shipping Freight Indices - SCFIS: Updated weekly on Mondays, the latest value on August 4, 2025, was 2297.86 points, with a 0.81% decline from the previous period and a 3.50% decline from two periods ago [2][30]. - SCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays, the value on August 1, 2025, was 2051 dollars/TEU, with a 1.87% decline from the previous period and a 0.53% increase from two periods ago [2][30]. - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays, the value on August 1, 2025, was 1789.5 points, with a 0.13% increase from the previous period and a 0.90% decline from two periods ago [2][30]. - NCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays, the value on August 1, 2025, was 1372.7 points, with a 3.53% decline from the previous period and a 1.20% decline from two periods ago [2][30]. 3.4 European Line Supply and Demand - In August, week32 had good cargo collection but few container usages. Week33 had different cargo collection situations among alliances, with MSK performing better, OA average, and PA worse. Starting from late August, the supply pressure is very high, with week34/35 having a capacity of 340,000 TEU and the average weekly capacity in September 2025 (tentative) being 343,000 TEU (323,000 TEU excluding TBN) [2][30]. 3.5 European Line Quotes - CMA dropped 200 dollars to 3245 dollars, HPL dropped 300 dollars to 2835 dollars, MSC dropped 300 dollars to 3040 dollars, and OOCL dropped 100 dollars to 3100 dollars. MSK opened the week34 booking at 2600 dollars, a 200 - dollar decline from the previous week, and then the price rose to 2640 dollars. The current average quote for week34 is equivalent to about 2050 points on the futures. Week33 quotes dropped to 2800 - 3200 dollars, with an average of 3000 dollars (equivalent to about 2100 points on the futures) [2][30]. 3.6 Related News - On August 4, the EU Commission spokesman said that the EU would suspend two sets of counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, targeting US tariffs on steel and aluminum products and the Trump administration's benchmark and auto tariffs [3][31]. - On August 6, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to fully occupy Gaza, and the plan will be submitted for a vote on August 7. As of August 5, the Israeli army had controlled about 75% of the Gaza Strip, and the new plan aims to occupy the remaining area [3][31]. 3.7 Index Delay - The XSI - C index will be delayed by three working days for publication [4][32].
永安期货集运早报-20250729
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Viewpoint - In the face of high capacity constraints and with demand gradually entering the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [1][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 2183.2, a decline of 1.33%, a direct difference of 133.4, a yesterday's volume of 2525, a yesterday's open interest of 7369, and an open interest change of - 989 [1][28] - EC2510 had a price of 1502.8, a decline of 1.62%, a direct difference of 813.8, a volume of 56014, and an open interest change of 717 [1][28] - EC2512 had a price of 1737.8, an increase of 1.02%, a direct difference of 578.8, and an open interest change of 79 [1][28] - EC2602 had a price of 1541.0, an increase of 1.46%, a direct difference of 775.6, and an open interest change of - 23 [1][28] - EC2604 had a price of 1370.0, an increase of 0.61%, a direct difference of 946.6, and an open interest change of - 283 [1][28] - EC2606 had a price of 1493.6, a decline of 1.61%, a direct difference of 823.0, and an open interest change of 44 [1][28] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 680.4, with a daily change of - 4.7 and a weekly change of - 21.3 [1][28] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 235.0, with a daily change of - 42.3 and a weekly change of - 74.3 [1][28] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 196.8, with a daily change of - 4.6 and a weekly change of - 51.4 [1][28] Shipping Indexes - SCEIS (updated every Monday, as of 2025/7/28): 2316.56 points, a decline of 3.50% from the previous period and 0.89% from the period before the previous one [1][28] - SCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 2090 dollars/TEU, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period and a decline of 0.95% in the next period [1][28] - CCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 1787.24, a decline of 0.90% from the previous period and an increase of 4.46% in the next period [1][28] - NCFI (updated every week - nine, as of 2025/7/25): 1422.9, a decline of 1.20% from the previous period and an increase of 0.35% in the next period [1][28] - TCI (as of 2025/7/18): 1054.56 points, a decline of 0.75% from the previous period and no change in the next period [1][28] European Line Supply and Demand - The average capacities in August and September (temporarily) are 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacities in week32/33/34/35 are 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1][28] - There is a situation of transfer from the US line in the European line schedule. Supported by the base cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in July did not face much pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provides some support, but the cargo volume is gradually weakening and entering the off - season [1][28] Recent European Line Quotations - In July, the quotations remained stable at around 2400 points [2][29] - In August, the PA alliance's price dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars, MSK's price decreased slightly at the beginning of the cabin opening (2900 - 3000 dollars) and then increased slightly, and OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 dollars. The price in week31 landed at about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market) [2][29] Related News - On 7/28, the US - EU trade agreement may lead to a long - term pause in interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank, increasing the risk of no further interest rate cuts [3][30] - On 7/29, Israel is considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [3][30] - On 7/29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [3][30] - On 7/29, the German government will approve a 2026 budget including a record investment of 126.7 billion euros to revitalize its sluggish economy [3][30]
集运指数(欧线):高位震荡,10-12反套、10-02反套轻仓持有
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 01:47
Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience high-level fluctuations. It is recommended to hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly. [1][9] - The 2508 contract's performance is influenced by Maersk's freight rates. Depending on different scenarios, its delivery settlement price may fall within different ranges. [8] - The 2510 contract is in the traditional off - season for the European Line. The market's fundamental trading logic is to short on rallies, but in the short term, it may show high - level fluctuations due to factors such as concentrated short positions and market sentiment. [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2508 contract closed at 2,265.9 points, up 5.80%; EC2510 closed at 1,613.0 points, up 1.55%; EC2512 closed at 1,791.0 points, up 2.22%. Over the past week, the main 2510 contract rose 16.7% and added 22,398 lots; the secondary main 2512 contract rose 16.2% and added 2,131 lots; the near - month 2508 contract rose 235.3 points and reduced 13,984 lots. [1][6] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different trends. For example, the trading volume of EC2510 was 68,673, and its open interest was 51,371, with an increase of 1,346 in open interest. [1] 2. Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and SCFI**: The SCFIS for the European route was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was $2,079/TEU, down 1.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI for the US West route was $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% bi - weekly. [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late July, MSC and Yang Ming slightly decreased their rates, while other shipping companies' FAK remained stable. In August, ONE's offline rates remained the same, and the OA Alliance and MSC may announce rate increases. [7] 3. Shipping Capacity - **Weekly and Monthly Average Shipping Capacity**: Data on weekly and monthly average shipping capacities from China to European basic ports are presented, but specific analysis is not provided in the report. Future sailings may be dynamically adjusted, and the pending voyages in September are not included in the shipping capacity statistics. [4] 4. Market Fundamentals - **Cargo Volume**: Benefiting from the strong FOB cargo volume, shipping companies' loading conditions at the end of July were optimistic, and the cargo volume at the beginning of August still had support. However, on a monthly basis, August is likely to see an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is unclear. [8] - **Contract Analysis**: Different scenarios for the 2508 contract's delivery settlement price are analyzed based on Maersk's freight rates. For the 2510 contract, due to it being in the off - season, the fundamental trading logic is to short on rallies, but short - term high - level fluctuations are expected. [8][9] 5. Macro News - **Geopolitical Events**: A new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks. The Israeli military issued an evacuation warning and will launch a ground offensive in Deir al - Balah in central Gaza. Iran agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with three European countries on the nuclear issue. [5][6]
集运指数(欧线)观点:高位震荡,10-12反套、10-02反套持有-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 13:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience high - level fluctuations in the short term. For the main 2510 contract, the market's fundamental trading logic remains to short on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth. For the 2508 contract, its valuation depends on the freight rate trend in early August [1][4]. - The shipping market in August is likely to face a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is not clear [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In August, the weekly average capacity is 321,000 TEU/week, with Maersk adding 2 additional vessels. In September, there are currently 2 blank sailings and 7 pending voyages (1 less than last week). Excluding pending voyages, the weekly average capacity in September is 299,000 TEU/week, and this value currently has limited reference significance [4][49]. - Regarding static capacity, in the first half of 2025, the top ten liner companies received a certain number of new ships, with some deployed on European lines. From July - December, it is expected to receive 36 ships (558,000 TEU) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, and only Evergreen has a plan to receive a 24,000 TEU ship in the second half of the year [55][58]. 3.2 Demand - The cargo volume during the peak season from July - August this year is better than expected, which is related to the resilience of the European economy and some exporters shifting from the US market to Europe. It is expected that the cargo volume may remain resilient in early August, and it is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of cargo volume appears in mid - August [4]. - From the perspective of the US import, in June, the total US import container volume was 2,381,063 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. China's exports to the US decreased by 24.9% year - on - year, while exports to Southeast Asia and India increased by 25.2% year - on - year [24]. - From the perspective of China's exports, in June, the decline in exports to the US narrowed, and exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience [26]. - From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, the container trade volume has shown certain fluctuations. In May, Asia's exports of containers to Europe reached 1.81 million TEU, a month - on - month increase of 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.0% [30][38]. 3.3 Price - On July 18, the SCFI European Line closed at $2,079/TEU, a week - on - week decrease of $20/TEU, reflecting the price cuts of MSC and Yangming in late July. On July 14, the SCFIS index closed at 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3% [11]. - In late July, MSC and Yangming had small price cuts, while other liner companies' FAK remained stable. In August, ONE's offline freight rates remained unchanged, and the OA Alliance and MSC may announce price increases. The expected time for the freight rate inflection point has been postponed to mid - August [13]. 3.4 Strategy - For unilateral trading, some long positions in the 2508 contract should be liquidated for profit, and the remaining positions can be dynamically liquidated for profit based on the implementation of the announced price increase in early August. - For arbitrage, hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [4].