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瑞银:全球软件_AI成为ERP现代化的推动力
瑞银· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the global software industry, particularly in the ERP sector, with a growth forecast of 5.7% for ERP spending in 2025, consistent with 2024's rate [2][21]. Core Insights - AI is recognized as a significant driver for ERP modernization and consolidation, with 53% of respondents indicating that AI-related initiatives have accelerated their core financials upgrade timelines [2][55]. - The survey indicates a strong intention among organizations to upgrade their core financial systems, with 72% planning an upgrade within the next two years, despite a slight decrease from 76% in 2023 [2][49]. - The average age of core financial systems is decreasing, currently reported at 3.45 years, down from 3.94 years in the previous year, indicating ongoing modernization efforts [48][50]. Summary by Sections IT Budget Growth - The mean expectation for IT budget growth in 2025 is 5.4%, an increase from 4.8% in 2024, with ERP software and cloud growth slightly higher at 5.7% [7][22]. - China shows the strongest growth outlook at 7.1%, while Germany has the lowest at 3.6% [24]. AI Adoption and Impact - 56% of respondents reported that their core financials provider offers AI capabilities, with 66% of this group currently using these functionalities [3][59]. - The average cost increase per user due to AI adoption is reported at 14% for both core financials and HCM [3][66]. Vendor Landscape - Microsoft remains the most widely used vendor for core financials at 32%, followed by SAP at 25% and Oracle at 12% [12][35]. - The Net Promoter Score (NPS) for Microsoft is the highest among major vendors at 42, while SAP's NPS has declined to 15 [39][40]. Upgrade Plans - 26% of organizations plan to upgrade their core financial systems this year, with an additional 43% planning upgrades in 2026 [49][50]. - The report highlights that 61% of respondents believe their AI strategy has accelerated their ERP upgrade timelines, up from 51% in the previous survey [55][56]. Pricing Trends - 85% of respondents have experienced or been informed of planned price increases, averaging 6.2%, with the highest expected increase in China at 7.6% [19][70]. - Microsoft customers anticipate the highest price increase at 6.3%, while SAP customers expect the lowest at 5.6% [19][70].
OBIC:上调GSe/TPs,但维持中性评级,因缺乏估值吸引力;ERP需求极具防御性,预示稳定增长将持续-20250530
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-30 02:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for OBIC is Neutral, maintained due to a lack of valuation appeal despite stable growth prospects in ERP demand [1][9][30]. Core Insights - OBIC's operating profit estimates for FY3/26 have been raised to ¥87.0 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for cloud services and large ERP projects [1][2][19]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit profit growth, with the system support (SS) business projected to grow by 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [1][23]. - The target price has been increased to ¥5,230 from ¥4,770, based on a DCF model that reflects the company's high earnings stability [1][32]. Financial Estimates - Revenue forecasts for FY3/26 are set at ¥132.5 billion, with operating profits expected to reach ¥87.0 billion, slightly above the company's guidance of ¥86.2 billion [2][4]. - The operating margin is anticipated to improve, driven by growth in the high-margin SS business and greater efficiency in SG&A expenses [13][31]. - The company has a market capitalization of ¥2.3 trillion and an enterprise value of ¥2.1 trillion [4]. Business Segments - The system integration (SI) business is expected to see stable growth, with sales and operating profits rising by 6% and 7% year-over-year, respectively [19][22]. - The SS business, which includes ERP maintenance, is projected to drive overall earnings, with sales and operating profits increasing by 13% and 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [23][24]. - The shift to cloud services is significant, with the proportion of customers using cloud services expected to rise to 91% by the end of FY3/26 [23][25]. Market Position - OBIC is focusing on large corporate clients, competing with major players like Oracle and SAP, and is gradually increasing its market share [22][31]. - The company has nearly 10 large projects underway, each with development costs exceeding ¥500 million, indicating high utilization rates [22][31]. - The manufacturing sector accounts for approximately 30% of OBIC's sales, with strong demand for ERP upgrades due to a high proportion of legacy systems [19][22].