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中金:维持蔚来-SW跑赢行业评级 目标价62港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 01:52
Core Viewpoint - Company maintains an outperform rating with target prices of HKD 62 and USD 8 for its Hong Kong and US stocks, respectively, indicating potential upside of 32% and 46% from current prices, based on a 1.0x P/S for 2026 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company delivered 87,071 vehicles, achieving revenue of CNY 21.79 billion, which aligns with market expectations [2] - The overall gross margin increased by 3.9 percentage points to 13.9%, while the automotive gross margin rose by 4.4 percentage points to 14.7%, marking the best quarterly performance since Q1 2023, driven by cost reduction and an increase in the L90 model's share [2] - R&D and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses were CNY 2.39 billion and CNY 4.19 billion, respectively, with R&D expenses decreasing by approximately CNY 600 million quarter-on-quarter, while SG&A expenses increased due to new model cycles [2] Group 2: Product Cycle and Future Outlook - The company projects Q4 deliveries between 120,000 and 125,000 units, maintaining a high delivery level [3] - The existing 5566 model is expected to support sales recovery through adjustments in standard battery capacity, and the company is optimistic about its current product cycle and internal operational improvements [3] - Plans for 2026 include launching three new SUV models (ES9, ES7, L80) in Q2 to Q3, with expectations to strengthen its position in the pure electric vehicle market [3] Group 3: Cash Flow and Financing - The company reported positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in Q3, supported by a strong product cycle [4] - On September 17, the company completed a public offering raising USD 1.16 billion, aimed at funding core technology development, new generation platforms, charging infrastructure expansion, and optimizing the balance sheet [4] - The company’s financial cushion is expected to continue improving due to these initiatives [4]