中金主要观点如下： 业绩符合市场预期，改革成效持续兑现 （原标题：中金：维持蔚来-SW(09866)跑赢行业评级 目标价62港元） 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，当前蔚来-SW(09866)美股及港股分别对应2026年0.7/0.8x P/S，维 持跑赢行业评级，港美股目标价分别为62港元/8美元，均对应2026年1.0x P/S，港股和美股分别较当前 股价存32%/46%的上行空间。公司公布3Q25业绩：营收为217.9亿元，整体业绩符合市场和该行预期。 在强劲的产品周期带动下，公司财报表示3Q经营性现金流和自由现金流均实现转正。此前公司于9月17 日完成11.6亿美元公开增发新股融资，所筹资金规划用于智能电动汽车核心技术的研发、新一代技术平 台及车型的开发、充换电基础设施的扩展，以及进一步优化公司资产负债表，增强资金实力，该行认为 公司安全垫持续提升。 风险提示：市场竞争加剧致需求不及预期，费用控制及换电合作不及预期。 公司3Q25交付87,071辆，实现营收217.9亿元。综合毛利率环比+3.9ppt至13.9%，汽车毛利率环比+4.4ppt 至14.7%，创下公司1Q23以来季度最好水平，主因推 ...

已实现现金流转正，持续融资提高安全垫 在强劲的产品周期带动下，公司财报表示3Q经营性现金流和自由现金流均实现转正。此前公司于9月17 日完成11.6亿美元公开增发新股融资，所筹资金规划用于智能电动汽车核心技术的研发、新一代技术平 台及车型的开发、充换电基础设施的扩展，以及进一步优化公司资产负债表，增强资金实力，该行认为 公司安全垫持续提升。 公司3Q25交付87,071辆，实现营收217.9亿元。综合毛利率环比+3.9ppt至13.9%，汽车毛利率环比+4.4ppt 至14.7%，创下公司1Q23以来季度最好水平，主因推进降本及L90占比提升，其他毛利率继续保持转正 为7.8%。3Q研发和销管费用分别为23.9/41.9亿元，研发费用环比下降约6亿元，销管费用环比有所增长 主要受新车型周期带动，整体费用率环比-6.5ppt至30.2%。3Q公司改革成效持续兑现，业绩符合市场和 该行预期。 强产品周期持续，4Q月销有望再创新高 公司指引4Q交付12-12.5万辆，保持高水平。行至2026年，该行继续看好公司本轮产品周期和内部经营 改善：现有5566车型有望通过100度电标配调整，支持销量回升。该行认为，公司启动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for NIO-SW (09866), with target prices set at HKD 68 and USD 8.8 for 2025/26, while keeping the non-GAAP profit forecasts unchanged [1][2] Group 1: Product and Pricing Strategy - The third-generation ES8 has been enhanced in dimensions, being 181mm longer, 21mm wider, and 50mm taller, with a wheelbase increase of 60mm compared to the previous model [1] - The pricing for the ES8 is set at CNY 406,800 and CNY 446,800, with the BaaS battery leasing option lowering the purchase threshold to CNY 298,800 and CNY 338,800, reflecting a CNY 10,000 reduction from the pre-sale price and lower than the previous model [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - NIO has consistently focused on core technologies, with the ET9 showcasing the company's innovation capabilities through 12 advanced features, including the self-developed NX9031 chip, SkyOS operating system, 900V high-voltage platform, and steer-by-wire with fully active suspension [1] - As of August, cumulative sales of the ET9 reached 2,061 units, and the launch of the Horizon Special Edition enhances luxury attributes with features like smooth zero-stage coating, 23-inch exclusive wheels, and finely embroidered interiors [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the product cycle and internal operational improvements, with the existing 5566 model anticipated to see a sales rebound due to recent adjustments in the standard configuration of 100 kWh battery [2] - The initiation of the internal CBU reform is expected to enhance operational and organizational efficiency, as well as the market competitiveness of the models, with gradual optimization of cost efficiency anticipated [2]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's chairman Li Bin stated that confidence in the company's ability to achieve profitability in Q4 has increased from 1% to 5% due to the strong sales of the new model L90, which delivered 10,525 units in August [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2, NIO reported a net loss of 4.126 billion yuan, although this was a reduction compared to previous losses [2]. - The target for Q4 profitability hinges on achieving sales of over 150,000 vehicles, with specific targets for models ES8 (35,000 units), L90 (45,000 units), and others [2]. Strategic Initiatives - NIO has implemented a price reduction strategy and equipped the 5566 model with a 100 kWh battery to stimulate sales [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing R&D expenses, aiming to reduce them from over 3 billion yuan to between 2-2.5 billion yuan, prioritizing new model development [4]. Organizational Changes - Li Bin emphasized the challenges of organizational change, noting that it requires consensus and external pressure to drive transformation [6]. - The company is adapting its user engagement strategies, including product pricing and service models, to better align with customer needs [8][9]. Market Outlook - Li Bin acknowledged the importance of demonstrating profitability as it impacts brand perception, sales, recruitment, and supply chain relationships [7]. - The company is preparing for potential external challenges, such as price wars and fluctuations in raw material costs, while focusing on controllable factors in their target setting [12]. Product Development - NIO aims to continuously produce popular models, with the recent success of L90 and ES8 providing valuable insights for future vehicle launches [10]. - The company has improved its production capacity by securing parts earlier, which is crucial for meeting demand in the competitive electric vehicle market [11].

Core Viewpoint - NIO has reported a significant recovery in Q2 2025 after facing challenges in Q1, with a focus on organizational transformation and new product launches to drive growth [1][2][8] Group 1: Q1 Performance and Recovery - In Q1 2025, NIO delivered 42,100 vehicles, marking a 40.1% year-on-year increase despite facing sales challenges [1] - The company experienced a low point in Q1, but CEO Li Bin stated that they have reached the bottom and are set to return to an upward trajectory starting in Q2 [1][2] - Sales began to recover in April, with May continuing the growth trend, indicating the effectiveness of organizational changes [2] Group 2: Organizational Changes - NIO has implemented a "Company Business Unit" (CBU) structure to optimize operations, dividing the business into 12 core units with clear goals and measurable return indicators [3] - The CBU model has improved collaboration efficiency and decision-making, with a focus on prioritizing projects with clear ROI [3] Group 3: Market Strategy and Brand Performance - NIO is exploring unique sales models in lower-tier markets, utilizing battery swap stations to reduce fixed costs and enhance user experience [4] - The company aims to achieve profitability in Q4 2025, with sales driven by three brands: Firefly, NIO, and Lada [5][6] - Firefly brand achieved a monthly sales volume of 3,680 units, while NIO ET9 surpassed competitors in the luxury segment [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - NIO anticipates a 70% increase in Q2 sales compared to Q1, with improved gross margins and reduced expenses [8] - The company is confident in reaching a monthly sales target of 50,000 units, supported by new product launches and enhanced operational efficiency [8]