Summary of the Equity Research Report on China Energy Storage Equities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Energy Storage System (ESS) industry, particularly in China and the global market dynamics affecting it [2][12]. Key Insights - **Global ESS Installation Forecasts**: The global ESS installation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to 430 GWh and 516 GWh, respectively, from previous estimates of 401 GWh and 487 GWh. This adjustment reflects stronger-than-expected global ESS battery shipments, which increased by 93% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [3][12]. - **Drivers of Growth**: The increase in battery shipments is attributed to supportive policies in China and front-loaded installations in the US due to upcoming foreign entity of concern (FEOC) requirements [3][12]. - **AI Data Centers (AIDC) Impact**: AIDC is expected to contribute significantly to ESS demand, with an estimated annual demand of 25 GWh in 2026, potentially rising to 32 GWh by 2035 [3][15]. Company Analysis - **Eve Energy and Sungrow**: Both companies are rated as "Buy." Eve Energy is the second-largest ESS battery supplier globally with a 16% market share, while Sungrow is the second-largest ESS integrator with a 14% market share [4][16]. - **Price Forecasts**: Target prices for Eve Energy have been raised to RMB 111.00 from RMB 100.00, and for Sungrow to RMB 226.00 from RMB 168.00. Earnings forecasts for Sungrow have been increased by 26-39% for 2025-2027, while Eve's forecasts have been adjusted by 1-3% [5][6]. Financial Metrics - **Earnings Estimates**: - Sungrow's 2025-2027 earnings forecasts have been increased due to higher ESS shipment forecasts and ASP (average selling price) adjustments [5]. - Eve's administrative expenses have been reduced, leading to a slight increase in earnings forecasts [5]. Market Dynamics - **China's ESS Market**: China accounted for approximately 60% of global ESS demand in 2024. The market is expected to grow significantly due to new policies and a reduction in ESS prices, which have halved since 2023 [35][38]. - **US Market Conditions**: The US market is anticipated to see a surge in ESS installations due to the FEOC requirements, which will limit the Chinese content in ESS projects starting in 2026 [14][45]. - **Middle East and Europe**: The Middle East is projected to be a significant market for ESS, driven by green initiatives, while Europe is expected to see strong growth due to supportive policies [51][52]. Risks and Considerations - **Tariff Implications**: The upcoming tariff hikes on Chinese ESS batteries may impact pricing and demand dynamics, although the report suggests that domestic production in Southeast Asia could mitigate some risks [14][31]. - **Quality Control**: New regulations in China aim to improve the quality of ESS products, which may benefit higher-quality suppliers while disadvantaging lower-standard products [13][38]. Conclusion - The ESS market is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements, supportive policies, and increasing demand from sectors like AIDC. Companies like Eve Energy and Sungrow are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, although they must navigate potential risks related to tariffs and market competition [16][42].

China (PRC) | Alternative Energy Equity Research Expert Call Key Takeaways: Overseas ESS Outlook We hosted an expert call with Mr. Echo Che from Envision AESC (Unlisted) and discussed the outlook on the overseas ESS market. Key takeaways follow. Demand outlook. The expert expects global ESS installation to be around 360 GWh (125 GWh) in 2026, or +35% YoY. The main drivers of this expansion would be the United States, Australia, and the Middle East, while Europe is projected to grow at a much slower pace, li ...

December 1, 2025 02:15 AM GMT Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. | Asia Pacific China ESS Winning Bids Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: China ESS YTD cumulative winning bids 2025 2024 2023 GWh 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 - Source: Beijixing, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 2: Monthly China ESS winning bids 2025 2024 2023 GWh 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 80 60 40 20 - Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2026 Extel (ex-Institutional Investor) Asia Research Survey. Request your ...

Summary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (300750.SZ) - **Industry**: China Energy & Chemicals - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb1,840,139 million - **Current Share Price**: Rmb404.12 (as of November 14, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb490.00, implying a 21% upside potential [5][5][5] Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2025: Rmb410,628 million - 2026: Rmb500,706 million - 2027: Rmb612,448 million [5][5][5] - **EBITDA Forecast**: - 2025: Rmb91,066 million - 2026: Rmb114,337 million - 2027: Rmb141,233 million [5][5][5] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025: Rmb15.38 - 2026: Rmb18.97 - 2027: Rmb23.75 [5][5][5] - **P/E Ratio**: - 2025: 26.3 - 2026: 21.3 - 2027: 17.0 [5][5][5] Industry Insights - **Global Energy Storage System (ESS) Deployment**: - Global YTD cumulative ESS deployment reached 170 GWh as of October 2025, representing a 73% year-over-year increase - China accounted for 85 GWh (+80% YoY) and the US for 49 GWh (+110% YoY) [7][7][7] - Total annual deployment for 2025 is projected at 275 GWh, a 74% increase YoY [7][7][7] - **Future Projections**: - New builds in 1Q26 are expected to add 46 GWh, indicating a 113% YoY increase in the global market [7][7][7] Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Approach**: Utilizes EV/EBITDA methodology consistent with global battery analysts - **Assigned Multiple**: 17x EV/EBITDA for 2026E EBITDA, implying a 25x P/E for 2026E [8][8][8] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected EV penetration and ESS application - Lower geopolitical risks - Better-than-expected margins and market share gains [10][10][10] - **Downside Risks**: - Weaker EV penetration and ESS application - Potential threats from other battery manufacturers - Geopolitical risks affecting the battery supply chain [10][10][10] Additional Notes - **Analyst Ratings**: The stock is rated as "Overweight" with a positive outlook on the industry [5][5][5] - **Market Trends**: Strong momentum in ESS deployment is expected to continue over the next six months, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the company and the industry [7][7][7]

Summary of the China Solar Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Solar Sector**, particularly the polysilicon industry and its consolidation efforts [1][2]. Key Points 1. **Government Rejection of Proposal**: The PRC government rejected the initial proposal for the foundation of an industry consolidation fund aimed at acquiring and shutting down low-efficiency polysilicon production capacity, raising investor concerns about the consolidation of the solar sector [1][2]. 2. **Market Reaction**: Following the news, share prices of 16 Chinese solar companies under coverage dropped by an average of **5%** [1]. 3. **Revised Proposal Expected**: The proposal for the consolidation fund will be revised and resubmitted to the government, with expectations that the capacity to be acquired and shut down may be scaled down [2][3]. 4. **Current Industry Measures**: Other anti-involution measures, such as output caps on high energy consumption production lines and prohibiting sales prices below cost, remain valid [1][5]. 5. **Cyclical Perspective**: The worst phase for the solar sector appears to be over, with industry participants reducing capital expenditures (capex) and improving cash flow amid rising sales prices [5]. Company-Specific Insights 1. **GCL Technology**: - GCL Poly indicated that the consolidation fund aimed to acquire and shut down **2.0 million metric tons (MT)** of low-efficiency capacity, with operational capacity expected to be no more than **1.5 million MT** post-consolidation [3]. - Acquisition costs were guided at **RMB 600-800 million** per **10,000 MT**, with discounts for high energy consumption standards [3]. - Target price set at **HK$1.72**, based on a DCF valuation, reflecting a **20%** premium over its 10-year historical average [7]. 2. **Trina Solar**: - Aiming to reach breakeven in **2Q/3Q 2026** after reporting net losses of **RMB 1,598 million** in **2Q 2025** and **RMB 1,283 million** in **3Q 2025** [6]. - Targeting **8 GWh** of energy storage system (ESS) sales in **2025**, with plans to increase to **15-16 GWh** in **2026** [6][13]. - Target price set at **RMB 25.00** based on DCF valuation [13]. 3. **Ningbo Deye Technology**: - Target price of **RMB 102.0/share**, reflecting sustainable growth in energy storage demand [9]. - Risks include lower-than-expected demand and increased price competition [10]. 4. **Sungrow Power Supply**: - Target price of **RMB 240.00**, based on DCF valuation, with key risks including slower solar installation growth and intensified trade tensions [11][12]. Risks Identified - **GCL Technology**: High risk due to share-price volatility, with potential downsides from slower polysilicon capacity reduction and higher power costs [8]. - **Ningbo Deye Technology**: Risks from lower-than-expected energy storage demand and increased competition [10]. - **Sungrow Power Supply**: Risks from slower solar installation and energy storage demand [12]. - **Trina Solar**: Risks from slower global solar and ESS installation growth [15]. Conclusion The conference highlighted significant challenges in the Chinese solar sector, particularly regarding government policies on consolidation and the financial health of key players. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for recovery as companies adjust their strategies and operations in response to market conditions.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the China Industrial Tech sector, focusing on various companies within the industry, particularly in the areas of AI, energy storage systems (ESS), and consumer electronics. Key Highlights 1. **3Q25 Results**: - The sector average revenue and operating profit increased by 18% and 17% year-over-year respectively, with results mostly in-line with expectations [1][2] - Notable performance drivers included: - Capacity buildout by major domestic PCB customers for AI applications, particularly Hans Laser [1] - Capital expenditures in batteries and consumer electronics [1] - Strong demand in AIDC power and ESS, along with export demand [1] - Liquid cooling technology advancements [1] - Market share gains in the industrial automation segment [1] - Effective cost control leading to margin improvements [1] - Expansion into new technology markets such as infrared [1] 2. **Challenges Faced**: - Smaller players struggled with scaling and profitability [1] - Prolonged capital expenditure weakness in process automation sectors like steel and chemicals [1] - Delays in defense orders impacting AVIC Jonhon [1] - Margin deterioration due to high exposure to precious metals [1] 3. **Margin Trends**: - Smaller companies like HCFA are more vulnerable in a deflationary environment with ASP pressure [2] - AVIC Jonhon faced margin deterioration due to precious metal price hikes [2] - Larger players like Sanhua achieved margin beats through stringent cost control [2] - Kstar's ESS segment gross profit margin improved by over 3 percentage points due to a favorable product mix [2] Actionable Investment Ideas 1. **Buy Recommendations**: - Hans Laser: Strong demand in PCB and consumer electronics [3] - Kstar: Beneficiary of AIDC power and overseas ESS growth [3] - Inovance: Resilient performance in industrial automation [3] - Nari Tech and Centre Testing: Defensive plays with stable margins [3] 2. **Sell Recommendations**: - Raycus: Limited military end-market sales [3] - Baosight: Continued weakness in domestic steel industry capex [3] - Sanhua-A: Potential profit-taking pressure due to optimistic market expectations [3] Sector Focus Areas 1. **AI Demand**: - Hans Laser is experiencing strong growth in PCB equipment sales driven by capex expansion from key customers like Victory Giant [6] - Kstar anticipates higher sales growth in data center products due to increasing orders from domestic and overseas customers [6] 2. **Energy Storage**: - Sungrow expects 40%-50% global ESS installation growth in 2026, driven by renewable energy needs and market-driven policies in China [7] - Kstar aims to double its ESS sales growth in 2025, supported by positive demand outlook [7] 3. **Consumer Electronics**: - OPT anticipates stronger demand due to shifts in product form factors, particularly with Apple's upcoming products [8] - Han's Laser is benefiting from solid demand for iPhone 17 and next-generation smartphone equipment [8] 4. **Overseas Expansion**: - Hongfa has a dominant market share in HVDC relays and is expanding capacity in Germany and Indonesia to meet EV demand [10] - Inovance is also expanding overseas to support sales growth in EV powertrain products [10] Additional Insights - The conference call highlighted the importance of product mix and cost control in maintaining margins amid challenging market conditions [2][3] - The outlook for the sector remains positive, particularly in AI and energy storage, despite some challenges faced by smaller players and specific sectors [6][7][8]

Summary of Jinko Solar Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinko Solar (688223.SS) - **Industry**: Solar Energy Key Points Earnings Improvement - Jinko Solar upgraded from Sell to Buy due to reduced losses and improved cash flow in 3Q25, with a net loss narrowing by 33.4% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) to Rmb1,012 million [1][2] - Operating cash inflow increased to Rmb2,471 million in 3Q25, up from Rmb1,255 million in 3Q24, indicating a positive trend in cash flow management [2][14] Module Sales and Pricing - Jinko expects further earnings improvement from module sales in 2026E, driven by anti-involution measures and a rising sales mix of high-efficiency products at premium prices [1][4] - Average unit module sales price rose by 8.8% qoq to Rmb0.77/W in 3Q25, despite module shipments declining by 15.9% year-over-year (yoy) to 20.1GW [4][13] High-Efficiency Products - The company began delivering high-efficiency modules (640W or above) in 3Q25, priced at US$1-2 cents/W higher than mainstream products, with a target to increase the sales mix of these products from 5% in 2025 to 60% in 2026E [3][4] Energy Storage Systems (ESS) - Jinko achieved ESS shipments of 3.3GWh in 9M25, with plans to increase shipments to 6GWh in 2025E, up from 1GWh in 2024 [5][16] - The company aims for profit breakeven from ESS sales in 4Q25E and expects to generate profits in 2026E due to economies of scale and a higher overseas sales mix [5][16] Financial Projections - Jinko's net loss for 2026E was cut by 45%, and net profits for 2027E were lifted by 4% based on higher module price assumptions [1][19] - The DCF target price was raised by 50% to Rmb7.50/share, indicating a potential upside for investors [1][19] Market Outlook - Management predicts a 2-3% decline in global solar installations in 2026E, primarily due to a decrease in China, but expects demand growth of 5% from Europe, 10-15% from the Middle East and Latin America, and 30-40% from Southeast Asia [4][19] Cost Management - Jinko plans to reduce unit cell production costs by Rmb0.02-0.04/W in 2026E by using more copper instead of silver in busbars [3][4] - SG&A expenses decreased, contributing to the narrowing of operating losses [13] Financial Summary - Revenue for 3Q25 was Rmb16,155 million, down 34.1% yoy, with gross profit of Rmb607 million and a gross profit margin of 3.8% [12][13] - The company recorded a significant decline in net profit margins, with a forecasted net profit of -Rmb1,143 million for 2026E and a projected recovery to Rmb2,401 million in 2027E [6][21] Other Notable Information - Jinko's module shipments in 9M25 totaled 61.85GW, reflecting a strategic decision to lower capacity utilization to mitigate oversupply pressure [15] - The company has a strong order backlog for ESS, with 80% of orders coming from overseas markets [5][16] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from Jinko Solar's recent conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

Summary of Global Energy Storage Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Energy Storage System (ESS)** industry, particularly in **China**. - The demand for ESS is experiencing significant growth, driven by various factors including declining battery prices and supportive government policies [1][13][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Battery Price Decline**: - China's ESS battery prices have decreased by **50%** since 2023, reaching **RMB0.54/Wh (USD76/kWh)** year-to-date. Recent prices have further dropped to **RMB0.47/Wh (USD66/kWh)**, or **RMB1.00 (USD140/kWh)** including EPC costs [1][14]. - This reduction in battery prices is a primary driver for the growth of ESS [13]. 2. **Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)**: - The LCOE for solar and storage (4-hour) has fallen by **25%** to **$68/MWh** since 2023. A modeled 1GW/4GWh solar plus storage project in Xinjiang shows an estimated LCOE of **$68/MWh** at an IRR of **8%** [2][60]. - With local government capacity compensation schemes, the LCOE can be reduced to **$60/MWh** [3][61]. 3. **Competitive Economics**: - Solar plus storage projects are economically attractive, with costs around **$43/MWh** for a 2-hour storage system and **$57/MWh** for a 4-hour system, compared to coal-fired power generation prices ranging from **USD35-65/MWh** [4][65]. - The cost advantage of solar plus storage highlights significant growth potential in the sector [4]. 4. **Forecast for ESS Demand**: - Global ESS demand is projected to increase by **93%** to **581GWh** in 2025 and reach **1588GWh** by 2030, representing a **23% CAGR** [6]. - The integration of large-scale solar and wind power systems will necessitate more storage to maintain grid stability [6]. 5. **Government Policies and Incentives**: - Local governments are enhancing returns on ESS investments through capacity compensation schemes, with nearly **20 provinces** expected to adopt such policies by the end of the year [3][20]. - Capacity compensation rates vary by region, with Inner Mongolia offering **RMB0.35/kWh** for projects commissioned in 2025 or earlier [20]. 6. **Key Players**: - **CATL** and **Sungrow** are identified as key beneficiaries of the ESS demand boom, with CATL being the top pick in the battery sector [7][9]. 7. **Market Dynamics**: - Despite concerns over policy changes, ESS tenders in China grew by **167%** year-on-year, indicating robust demand [10][12]. - The Inner Mongolia market showed particularly strong demand, completing **18.5GWh** of ESS project procurement [10]. Additional Important Insights - The ESS market is expected to evolve with the increasing penetration of renewables, which will require more storage solutions to manage supply and demand effectively [6][76]. - The growth trajectory of ESS is anticipated to follow that of developed economies, with ongoing installations and tender volumes expected to translate into new installations in the coming years [27]. - The analysis indicates that the ESS share will rise to **23%** of renewable capacity by 2030, up from **1%** four years ago [76]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the ESS industry, emphasizing the significant growth potential and the factors driving this trend.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Sungrow with a price target of Rmb63.00 [3][7]. Core Insights - Management is optimistic about the demand outlook for energy storage systems (ESS) in Europe and the Middle East, while the US market faces uncertainties due to tariff hikes and potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) [2][4]. - Sungrow has resumed shipments of ESS to the US after tariffs dropped to approximately 41%, and management is confident in meeting its full-year shipment targets [2][4]. - Global solar demand is expected to grow by around 10% year-over-year in 2025, although uncertainties remain in the US market [2][4]. - The company anticipates a decline in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) revenue in 2025 due to regulatory changes, but limited impairment risks are expected [2][4]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - Europe: Management expects over 20 GWh of utility-scale ESS installations in 2025, up from 10 GWh in 2024, with potential growth exceeding 60% year-over-year into 2026 [4]. - US: Demand may decline significantly due to recent tariff hikes and uncertainties surrounding the IRA [4]. - China: Utility-scale ESS installations are expected to trend down in 2025 due to regulatory changes, while commercial and industrial (C&I) ESS installations may increase from 7 GWh in 2024 to 15 GWh in 2025 [4]. - Middle East: Optimism remains regarding ESS demand driven by government initiatives for data center deployment [4]. Financial Performance - Sungrow aims to meet a US ESS shipment target of 8 GWh in 2025, having already completed 4 GWh in the first quarter [4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for US ESS is expected to decrease from over 40% to around 30% due to cost pass-downs from tariff hikes [4][5]. - The inverter business is projected to grow by approximately 10% year-over-year, with a stable competitive landscape in the Middle East [6]. Revenue Projections - The report anticipates declining EPC revenue in 2025 due to reduced distributed generation solar demand [6]. - Management expects lower capital expenditures in the EPC segment and plans to expand overseas EPC business [6]. Valuation - The June 2026 price target of Rmb63 corresponds to a 12-month forward target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.0x, using sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuations for different segments [8][9].