Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 August 2025 Correction (See disclosures for details) This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Battery Read-through from EVE results EVE Energy reported its 1H25 result, which saw 18% core earnings growth if we exc ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Energy Storage and Electric Vehicle (EV) Battery Market Key Company Developments - **SK On and SK Enmove Merger**: SK Innovation confirmed the merger to enhance competitiveness in the global electrification market, effective November 1, 2025. The merger aims to unlock synergies in EV battery and energy storage systems, supported by a capital expansion of KRW 8 trillion (approximately €5 billion) [1][1][1] - **CATL Short Selling**: CATL's shares in Hong Kong have become a target for short sellers, with bearish bets doubling to 42% of free float since June. Despite a 50% surge in share price over two months, borrowing costs for shorts have increased significantly [1][1][1] - **Sodium Ion Battery Production**: The sodium ion battery pipeline is dominated by Tier 3 producers, with only 10% of capacity from Tier 1 producers. BYD and CATL are the only Tier 1 producers with sodium ion facilities, with BYD's gigafactory in Qinghai starting production [1][1][1] - **Middle East BESS Growth**: The BESS industry in the MENA region is expanding, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with over 25 GWh of planned projects by 2027. Saudi Arabia currently has 11.7 GWh of operational grid BESS [1][1][1] - **CATL's Electric Vessel**: CATL has powered China's first fully electric passenger vessel, the Yujian 77, which has a range of 100 kilometers and a battery capacity of 3,918 kWh [2][2][2] Industry Challenges - **Lithium Miners' Struggles**: Lithium producers are facing financial pressures, with companies like IGO Ltd. and Mineral Resources Ltd. reporting potential impairments and cost-cutting measures due to challenges in the EV transition [2][2][2] Market Trends - **Tesla's Battery Supply Agreement**: Tesla signed a $4.3 billion agreement with LG Energy for US-built batteries, aimed at boosting its energy storage business, which has seen a decline in revenue [5][5][5] - **Panasonic's Capacity Plans**: Panasonic has delayed its EV battery expansion plans at its Kansas factory, now targeting 32 GWh capacity without a specific timeline [5][5][5] - **Asahi Kasei's Supply to Toyota**: Asahi Kasei will supply battery separators to a Toyota subsidiary, indicating ongoing collaboration in the EV supply chain [5][5][5] - **Italy's EV Incentives**: Italy plans to allocate €600 million for EV purchase incentives, aiming to promote the purchase of at least 39,000 electric vehicles by mid-2026 [5][5][5] - **Toyota's European EV Production**: Toyota plans to manufacture 100,000 EVs annually in Europe starting in 2028, aligning with EU climate policies [5][5][5] Additional Insights - **Norway's EV Market**: In July 2025, electric vehicles accounted for 97.2% of new car registrations in Norway, highlighting the country's strong EV adoption [8][8][8] - **Germany's Renewable Energy Challenges**: Germany faced record curtailment of solar and wind energy in the first half of the year due to grid constraints and insufficient battery storage [8][8][8] - **Commodity Price Performance**: Lithium carbonate (LiCO) spot prices are at $9,732 per tonne, with a 12% decline over the past year, indicating market volatility [7][7][7] This summary encapsulates the critical developments and trends in the global energy storage and EV battery market, highlighting both opportunities and challenges faced by key players in the industry.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the battery materials industry, but it indicates a positive sentiment towards the sector based on production increases and market conditions. Core Insights - The battery production pipeline is estimated to increase by 1% month-over-month (MoM) and 39% year-over-year (YoY) in July 2025, with electric vehicle (EV) battery production remaining flat MoM, while energy storage system (ESS) battery demand is expected to grow by 4% MoM [1] - Lithium carbonate is projected to rise by 4% MoM, contrasting with the largely flat trends observed in other battery materials [1] - Market sentiment has been buoyed by positive discussions regarding potential supply-side reforms in China, despite ongoing increases in production output [1] Summary by Sections Battery Production Trends - Battery production is estimated to be up by 1% MoM [3] - Cathode production is expected to remain flattish MoM [5] - Anode production is projected to increase by 1% MoM [7] - Separator production is also estimated to rise by 1% MoM [9] - Electrolyte production is expected to be flattish MoM [11] Market Sentiment and Demand - The market sentiment is influenced by positive discussions and hopes for supply-side reforms in China, which have led to increased interest in equities and futures related to battery materials [1] - The demand for ESS batteries is forecasted to continue its upward trend, with a 4% MoM increase expected [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" with a target price of HK$688, implying a 32x/22x 2025E/26E PER [15] - The investment rating for CATL is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb362/share, implying a 24.5x 25E P/E and 19.4x 26E P/E [19] Core Insights - In March 2025, China EV battery installation reached 61.4 GWh, marking a 54% month-over-month and 56% year-over-year increase, with total installations for 1Q25 at 148.9 GWh, also up 54% YoY [1][2] - CATL's market share remained stable at 43% in 1Q25, while BYD's market share increased by 2 percentage points to 29% [2] - Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries continued to dominate the market with a 79% share in 1Q25, up 17 percentage points from 62% in 1Q24 [2][5] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - CATL is shifting towards the low-end market due to the rise of A-class passenger vehicles, which accounted for approximately 41% of battery installations in 1Q25, up from 25% in 2024 [8] - The combined market share of A-class and B-class vehicles rose to 66% in 1Q25, compared to 61% in 2024 [8] Company Performance - Xiaomi's battery demand surged to 6.67 GWh in 1Q25, with the SU7 model contributing over 2 GWh monthly since its launch in March 2024, while Huawei's battery installation volume fell by about 40% YoY to 2.2 GWh [12] - CATL's product mix saw A-class and B-class vehicles account for 50% of its offerings in 1Q25, compared to 29% in 1Q24 [8] Valuation Metrics - BYD's target price is derived using a PEG ratio of 1.0x based on a projected 32% NP CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [15][17] - CATL's valuation is based on a 15.0x 2025E EV/EBITDA, reflecting its historical average minus 0.25 standard deviation since listing [19]