28 August 2025 | 11:24PM HKT Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech (002518.SZ) 2Q25 largely in line: Smooth customer expansion (domestic & overseas); guides further improvement in 2H25-26; Maintain Buy n Overseas markets contributed to c.55% of segment sales in 1H25 (+8% yoy per GSe), mainly driven by SEA and Europe. The company is recently cooperating with a UPS (uninterruptible power supply) brand on potential ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) business for this new customer's high-power UPS products (likely for ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Energy Storage and Electric Vehicle (EV) Battery Market Key Company Developments - **SK On and SK Enmove Merger**: SK Innovation confirmed the merger to enhance competitiveness in the global electrification market, effective November 1, 2025. The merger aims to unlock synergies in EV battery and energy storage systems, supported by a capital expansion of KRW 8 trillion (approximately €5 billion) [1][1][1] - **CATL Short Selling**: CATL's shares in Hong Kong have become a target for short sellers, with bearish bets doubling to 42% of free float since June. Despite a 50% surge in share price over two months, borrowing costs for shorts have increased significantly [1][1][1] - **Sodium Ion Battery Production**: The sodium ion battery pipeline is dominated by Tier 3 producers, with only 10% of capacity from Tier 1 producers. BYD and CATL are the only Tier 1 producers with sodium ion facilities, with BYD's gigafactory in Qinghai starting production [1][1][1] - **Middle East BESS Growth**: The BESS industry in the MENA region is expanding, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with over 25 GWh of planned projects by 2027. Saudi Arabia currently has 11.7 GWh of operational grid BESS [1][1][1] - **CATL's Electric Vessel**: CATL has powered China's first fully electric passenger vessel, the Yujian 77, which has a range of 100 kilometers and a battery capacity of 3,918 kWh [2][2][2] Industry Challenges - **Lithium Miners' Struggles**: Lithium producers are facing financial pressures, with companies like IGO Ltd. and Mineral Resources Ltd. reporting potential impairments and cost-cutting measures due to challenges in the EV transition [2][2][2] Market Trends - **Tesla's Battery Supply Agreement**: Tesla signed a $4.3 billion agreement with LG Energy for US-built batteries, aimed at boosting its energy storage business, which has seen a decline in revenue [5][5][5] - **Panasonic's Capacity Plans**: Panasonic has delayed its EV battery expansion plans at its Kansas factory, now targeting 32 GWh capacity without a specific timeline [5][5][5] - **Asahi Kasei's Supply to Toyota**: Asahi Kasei will supply battery separators to a Toyota subsidiary, indicating ongoing collaboration in the EV supply chain [5][5][5] - **Italy's EV Incentives**: Italy plans to allocate €600 million for EV purchase incentives, aiming to promote the purchase of at least 39,000 electric vehicles by mid-2026 [5][5][5] - **Toyota's European EV Production**: Toyota plans to manufacture 100,000 EVs annually in Europe starting in 2028, aligning with EU climate policies [5][5][5] Additional Insights - **Norway's EV Market**: In July 2025, electric vehicles accounted for 97.2% of new car registrations in Norway, highlighting the country's strong EV adoption [8][8][8] - **Germany's Renewable Energy Challenges**: Germany faced record curtailment of solar and wind energy in the first half of the year due to grid constraints and insufficient battery storage [8][8][8] - **Commodity Price Performance**: Lithium carbonate (LiCO) spot prices are at $9,732 per tonne, with a 12% decline over the past year, indicating market volatility [7][7][7] This summary encapsulates the critical developments and trends in the global energy storage and EV battery market, highlighting both opportunities and challenges faced by key players in the industry.

Summary of Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sungrow Power Supply - **Ticker**: 300274.SZ - **Market Cap**: Rmb121,946 million (approximately US$16,733 million) [11] Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb11,036 million, up 16.9% year-over-year, aligning with consensus estimates [2] - **1Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb3,826 million, a significant increase of 82.5% year-over-year, driven by: - Inverter shipment volumes increased by 19% year-over-year to 34GW - Energy-storage system (ESS) shipments surged to 12GWh, a 4.7x increase year-over-year [2] - **Gross Profit Margin**: Increased by 2.8 percentage points year-over-year to 29.9% in 2024 [2] Shipment and Revenue Projections - **Inverter Shipment Target for 2025**: Expected to rise by 10-20% year-over-year, with an assumption of 162GW [3] - **ESS Shipment Target for 2025**: Initially projected at 40-50GWh, now revised down to 35GWh (+25% year-over-year) due to anticipated tariff increases [3] Market and Tariff Impact - **US Market Importance**: Accounts for 10-20% of revenue, but is crucial for higher margins [1] - **Tariff Impact**: ESS shipments to the US have been suspended due to tariffs exceeding 100%, while inverter shipments remain unaffected as they are produced in Thailand [4] - **Mitigation Strategies**: The company is focusing on cost control and exploring sales in non-US markets to offset tariff impacts [4] Regulatory Environment - **PRC Government Policy No.136**: Introduced on February 9, 2025, adds uncertainty to ESS demand, with a rush in renewable capacity installations expected before June 1, followed by a sharp decline [5] Valuation and Recommendations - **Target Price**: Increased by 10.4% to Rmb53/share [1] - **Current Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER): 12.4x for 2025E - Price-to-Book Ratio (PB): 2.7x - Dividend Yield: 1.7% [1][7] - **Analyst Rating**: Cautious outlook with a "Sell" rating due to uncertainties despite the earnings beat [1] Additional Insights - **Future Earnings Projections**: Net profits are expected to increase by 12% for 2025E and 9% for 2026E [1] - **Overall Market Sentiment**: Despite strong performance in 1Q25, the company faces significant uncertainties that could impact future profitability and growth [1][14]