Core Insights - The fourth-quarter earnings season is ongoing, with major pharmaceutical companies set to announce their results, including AstraZeneca, Incyte, Gilead Sciences, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, and Moderna [1] Industry Overview - Several large pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Lilly, AbbVie, Biogen, Merck, and Amgen reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, surpassing estimates for both earnings and revenues. In contrast, Novartis and Sanofi had mixed results, with earnings exceeding estimates but revenues falling short [2] - As of February 4, 40% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 73.9% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings. Among these, 87.5% exceeded earnings estimates, and 75% surpassed revenue estimates. Year-over-year, earnings increased by 3.3%, while revenues rose by 9.5%. Overall, fourth-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are expected to decline by 1.5%, while sales are projected to increase by 9.1% compared to the previous year [3] Company-Specific Insights AstraZeneca - AstraZeneca's performance has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in two of the last four quarters, meeting once, and missing once, resulting in an average surprise of 3.81%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $15.78 billion, with earnings expected at $2.18 per share [5] - Key medicines, particularly cancer drugs and diabetes medicine, are expected to drive fourth-quarter sales, supported by strong demand trends [7] - AstraZeneca is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10 [8] Incyte - Incyte has a mixed history of earnings surprises, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 14.35%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $1.35 billion, with earnings expected at $1.94 per share [9] - Strong sales of Jakafi and expected growth in Opzelura sales are likely to contribute to revenue growth in the fourth quarter [11][12] - Incyte is also set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on February 10 [12] Gilead Sciences - Gilead Sciences has a mixed earnings surprise history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 7.80%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $7.57 billion, with earnings expected at $1.83 per share [13] - Increased sales from Biktarvy and Descovy, along with growth in the Liver Disease portfolio, are anticipated to drive top-line growth [14] - Gilead is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10 [15] Vertex Pharmaceuticals - Vertex has a mixed earnings surprise history, beating estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.01%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $3.17 billion, with earnings expected at $5.07 per share [16] - Revenue growth is likely to be driven by higher sales of its cystic fibrosis medicine, Trikafta, and contributions from newer drugs [18] - Vertex is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12 [19] Moderna - Moderna has a strong earnings surprise history, beating estimates in all of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 31.45%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $661.4 million, with expected earnings showing a loss of $2.60 per share [20] - Revenue is expected to be primarily driven by sales of COVID-19 vaccines, although demand has declined recently [22] - Moderna is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on February 13 [23]

Core Insights - AstraZeneca (AZN) is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10, with a consensus estimate for quarterly sales at $15.71 billion and earnings at $2.18 per share [1][8] Group 1: Sales Drivers - Key medicines, particularly cancer drugs Calquence, Lynparza, Tagrisso, and Imfinzi, along with diabetes medication Farxiga/Forxiga, are expected to significantly contribute to fourth-quarter sales, driven by strong demand [2][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimates for the key drugs are as follows: Calquence at $916 million, Lynparza at $881 million, Tagrisso at $1.88 billion, Imfinzi at $1.67 billion, and Farxiga/Forxiga at $2.01 billion [2] Group 2: Additional Contributions - Other drugs, including asthma medication Fasenra, COPD treatment Breztri, and lupus drug Saphnelo, are also anticipated to support sales growth, with estimates for Symbicort and Fasenra at $696 million and $544 million, respectively [4] - Sales from AstraZeneca's Rare Disease drugs, particularly Ultomiris and Strensiq, have shown significant growth and are expected to continue this trend in the upcoming quarter [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Costs - The company is expected to see a rise in core operating costs due to investments in recent product launches and increased expenses for new clinical studies [6] - AstraZeneca has a history of decent performance, beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.81% [7] Group 4: Earnings Prediction - The current Earnings ESP for AstraZeneca stands at -4.59%, indicating that an earnings beat is not predicted this time [10][11] - The Most Accurate Estimate for earnings is $2.08 per share, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate remains at $2.18 [11]

Core Insights - AbbVie (ABBV) and AstraZeneca (AZN) are both leading global healthcare companies with diverse drug portfolios, excelling in immunology and oncology, with AbbVie also focusing on neuroscience and aesthetics, while AstraZeneca emphasizes rare diseases and vaccines [1][2] AbbVie Overview - AbbVie has achieved significant success in immunology with three blockbuster drugs: Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and Humira, which together contribute nearly 50% of its revenue [3] - Despite losing U.S. exclusivity for Humira in 2023, AbbVie has returned to strong growth, with Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales increasing by 53% year-over-year to $18.5 billion, and projected to exceed $25 billion by 2025 [4] - The oncology segment generated approximately $5 billion in revenue in the first nine months of 2025, up nearly 3% year-over-year, while neuroscience drug sales rose over 20% to nearly $7.8 billion [5] - AbbVie has pursued an aggressive acquisition strategy, completing over 30 M&A transactions since early 2024, including acquiring Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals for a drug in mid-stage development for major depressive disorder [6] - AbbVie faces near-term challenges, including biosimilar competition for Humira, pressure on Imbruvica sales, and a decline in its aesthetics franchise, which saw a 7% drop in sales in the first nine months of 2025 [7] AstraZeneca Overview - AstraZeneca has a diversified geographical presence and a portfolio of blockbuster drugs, including Imfinzi, Lynparza, Farxiga, Ultomiris, and Tagrisso, which are driving revenue growth [8][9] - The company aims for $80 billion in total revenues by 2030, supported by the launch of 20 new medicines, with nine already launched or approved [10] - AstraZeneca has also expanded its pipeline through acquisitions, including EsoBiotec, a biotech specializing in cell therapies [11] - Challenges for AstraZeneca include the impact of U.S. policy changes on oncology sales, ongoing investigations in China, and competition from generics and biosimilars affecting key drugs [12][13] Financial Estimates and Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie indicates an 8.2% increase in 2025 sales and a 5.1% increase in EPS, with recent EPS estimates declining from $11.04 to $10.64 [14] - For AstraZeneca, the 2025 sales and EPS estimates suggest a 9% and 11.9% increase, respectively, with EPS estimates rising from $4.56 to $4.60 [16] - Year-to-date, AbbVie shares have increased by 28%, while AstraZeneca shares have risen by 40%, outperforming the industry average of 17% [17] - AbbVie has a lower P/E ratio of 15.90 compared to AstraZeneca's 17.81, making AbbVie appear more attractive from a valuation perspective [18] - AbbVie offers a higher dividend yield of 2.88% compared to AstraZeneca's 1.10% [22] Comparative Analysis - Both companies hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a challenging decision for investors [24] - AbbVie's recovery post-Humira is notable, driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq, but its reliance on acquisitions may weigh on near-term earnings [25] - AstraZeneca's growth profile is more balanced, with a diverse range of blockbuster products reducing reliance on any single drug [27]