Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **healthcare industry in China**, particularly the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors, highlighting recent license-out events and deals in the first half of 2025. Company-Specific Insights Hengrui Medicine - **License Agreement with GSK**: On July 28, 2025, Hengrui licensed out global rights (excluding Greater China) for HRS-9821 and up to 11 other products to GSK for an upfront payment of **US$500 million** and potential milestone payments totaling **US$12 billion** [1][8][19]. - **Clinical Stage**: HRS-9821 is a PDE3/4 inhibitor currently in Phase-I clinical trials, aimed at treating COPD as an auxiliary maintenance treatment [1]. - **Financial Impact**: The upfront payment is included in the DCF model, resulting in a **51.3% increase** in the 2025 EPS forecast [2][7]. The updated price objective for Hengrui is raised to **RMB56.8** from **RMB51.5** [2]. - **Market Capitalization Comparison**: Hengrui's market cap is approximately **74%** of GSK's, while its revenue is only about **10%** of GSK's projected revenue for 2024, indicating a potential **10+ years** for Hengrui to reach GSK's revenue level assuming a **20% CAGR** [2]. 3SBio - **License Agreement with Pfizer**: On July 24, 2025, 3SBio announced a license agreement with Pfizer for the development and commercialization of SSGJ-707 in mainland China, with a non-refundable option fee of up to **US$150 million** [3]. Industry Trends - **License-Out Deals Growth**: In the first half of 2025, the total value of license-out deals by Chinese firms reached **US$60 billion**, a **135% year-over-year growth**, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [4][12]. - **Upfront Payments**: Upfront payments for Chinese firms grew **196% year-over-year** to **US$2.6 billion** in 1H25, with the number of deals increasing by **71.4%** to **72** [4][13][15]. - **R&D Capability**: The surge in deals indicates that Chinese pharma/biotech firms possess world-leading R&D capabilities, leading to significant financial rewards through licensing [4]. Financial Metrics - **Hengrui's Financial Estimates**: - Total Revenue for 2025 is estimated at **RMB33.266 billion**, a **12.1% increase** from previous estimates [7]. - Net Income is projected at **RMB9.305 billion**, reflecting a **51.3% increase** [7]. - Basic EPS is expected to be **RMB1.47**, up from **RMB0.97**, marking a **51.3% increase** [7]. Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks for Hengrui**: Include setbacks in drug development, slow sales ramp-up of new products, increasing pricing pressures, and competition in the PD-1 market [22]. - **Upside Risks**: Higher-than-expected net profit margins and faster progress of pipeline candidates could positively impact the price objective [22]. Conclusion - The healthcare sector in China, particularly the pharmaceutical industry, is experiencing significant growth in licensing activities, with Hengrui Medicine and 3SBio leading notable deals. The financial outlook for Hengrui has improved significantly due to recent agreements, although risks remain that could impact future performance.

Industry Overview - The second-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is commencing, with most firms expected to release earnings results in the next two weeks, primarily consisting of pharma/biotech and medical device companies [1] - The earnings season for the drug and biotech sector began in mid-July, highlighted by Johnson & Johnson's strong performance, which exceeded earnings and sales estimates, leading to raised revenue and earnings expectations for the year [1] Company Performance - Novartis surpassed second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, driven by a year-over-year increase in sales of key drugs, prompting an upward revision of its annual guidance for core operating income [2] - Roche experienced solid growth in the first half of 2025, with high demand for key drugs offsetting declines in legacy drug sales [2] - As of July 23, 15% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 27.2% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with 88.9% outperforming earnings estimates and 100% beating revenue estimates [3] - Overall, second-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to increase by 0.9%, while sales are expected to rise by 7.9% compared to the previous year [3] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Merck, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers, AbbVie, and Moderna are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week [4] - Merck has a strong earnings track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 3.82% [5] - AstraZeneca has a mixed earnings history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.24% [8] - Bristol Myers has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 20.16% over the last four quarters [11] - AbbVie has also maintained a strong track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 2.55% [13] - Moderna has an excellent earnings history, with an average surprise of 31.60% in the last four quarters [15] Sales Drivers - Merck's growth in the second quarter is likely attributed to increased sales of its cancer drug Keytruda, driven by additional indications and patient demand [7] - AstraZeneca's sales are expected to be bolstered by strong demand for its cancer and diabetes medications [10] - Bristol Myers' revenue may be impacted by declines in legacy drug sales, but growth products are expected to partially offset this decline [12] - AbbVie's revenue is anticipated to be driven by strong sales of key drugs and contributions from newer products [14] - Moderna's revenues are expected to be influenced by sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, while the focus is shifting to updates on its broader pipeline [16]

Summary of China Pharma and Biotech Conference Call Industry Overview - The China healthcare sector is experiencing its strongest rally since mid-2023, with the Hang Seng Biotech and MSCI China Healthcare indices showing year-to-date (YTD) returns of 57% and 38%, respectively, outperforming broader indices like Hang Seng and MSCI China at 20% and 16% [1][10] - The current market is at 30% of the peak seen during the last healthcare boom in 2020-2021, with a notable shift towards mature companies and top players rather than early-stage firms [1][2] - Public financing has surged, increasing 4 times in 1H25 compared to 1H24, with about two-thirds of IPO and follow-on offerings yielding positive returns [1][12] Market Valuation and Opportunities - Valuations in the China healthcare sector are now at or above global counterparts, with MSCI China healthcare P/S ratios crossing over with S&P 500 healthcare [2] - Individual stock performance varies significantly, with funds showing interest in companies with lower valuation multiples and potential for out-licensing deals [2][52] - Specific companies like CSPC are considered overheated with a PEG ratio of 14.5x, while Hengrui (2.3x) and Sino Biopharm (2.0x) are viewed as cheaper alternatives [3][44] Biotech Sector Insights - Biotech companies are valued based on market cap to projected 2032 revenue, ranging from 2-5x. Companies like BeiGene (2.7x) and Zai Lab (1.2x) are seen as undervalued, while Akeso (4.7x) and Kelun Biotech (5.6x) are considered relatively pricey [4][48] - The biotech sector has seen a significant increase in market capitalization, rising from US$102 billion to US$160 billion YTD 2025 [11] Clinical Trials and R&D - The number of clinical trial starts in China has shown consistent growth, with local assets making up over 50% of the global pipelines for the first time in 2025 [1][33] - Innovative drug modalities, particularly in oncology, have seen a resurgence in clinical trials, indicating sustained R&D efforts despite previous market downturns [32][36] Out-licensing Trends - There has been a boom in outbound licensing deals, with companies like RemeGen and Innovent leading the way. This trend is expected to continue, although there are concerns about saturation in certain drug classes [34][52] - The out-licensing model has remained resilient against geopolitical challenges, with no significant shifts in FDA attitudes towards China-originated drugs [34] Investment Implications - The report rates Akeso, Hansoh, Innovent, and Hengrui as Outperform, while BeiGene, CSPC, Sino Biopharm, and Zai Lab are rated as Market-Perform [7] - A methodological shift in valuation is noted, with increased emphasis on multiple-based valuation for mature companies, while biotechs will continue to use P/S and DCF models [8] Conclusion - The China pharma and biotech sector is on an upward trajectory, driven by strong market sentiment, increased public financing, and a robust pipeline of clinical trials. However, caution is advised regarding valuation levels and the sustainability of the current rally, particularly in the context of out-licensing deals and market saturation [52][53]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Healthcare Sector**: Anticipation of an Executive Order on drug pricing expected next week, with a probability of over 70% for the implementation of Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing to reduce the disparity between US and international drug prices [3][9] - **Transportation and Logistics**: Expected reduction in shipments due to tariffs, but supply chain disruptions may provide some offset. Favorable outlook for specific companies like XPO, NSC, and CP, while UPS and SAIA appear oversold [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)**: Notable shift in search dynamics with the first-ever decline in Safari searches, raising concerns about AI search potentially replacing traditional search methods. However, long-term monetization of AI is expected to ramp up [2][27] - **Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)**: Azure reported a 35% year-over-year revenue growth, with a 34% increase in backlog, outperforming Amazon's AWS and Google's GCP. Combined cloud backlog growth of 33% indicates strong core demand despite AI capacity constraints [5][27] - **Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)**: Focus on Robotaxi and affordable model launches, but concerns over tariffs and execution risks contribute to share price volatility [6][27] - **Walmart Inc. (WMT)**: Anticipated Q1 sales are expected to be in line or slightly better, but caution is advised due to product mix and potential impacts on EBIT growth [5][27] - **Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)**: Continued performance exceeding expectations, with FY27 EPS estimates raised to approximately $25. Merger synergies of $2.7 billion expected to phase in from Q2 [7][27] - **MP Materials**: Potential factory closures in the US due to the absence of rare earth magnet flows from China, impacting industries such as aerospace and electric vehicles [7][27] - **GeneDx**: Management confidence in over 30% volume growth for NICU genetic diagnostics this year, with a compelling valuation at 4x projected 2026 revenues [8][27] Market Dynamics - **Quant Strategy**: Increasing EPS risk indicated by Q1 earnings beats and misses, with the Mag 7 model yielding a cumulative long-short return of 10.5% since its launch [2] - **Russell Rebalance**: Notable buy/sell pressure on specific stocks leading into the June 27 rebalance, with BAM, FLUT, and HWM among the top gainers, while SSB and HQY are under pressure [4] Additional Considerations - **Tariffs and Supply Chain**: The impact of tariffs on shipments and the potential for redirected flows to mitigate some negative effects [4] - **AI and Search Trends**: The evolving landscape of search engines and the implications of AI on traditional search methods [2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the healthcare and technology sectors, along with specific company performances and market dynamics.

• Trades we like: ° Large over small caps: Better pricing power and operational efficiency should continue to benefit large caps on a relative basis late in the cycle. Small caps have more economic sensitivity and more rate sensitivity. Given the slowing macro backdrop, a Fed that's on hold and sticky back- end rates, large caps should continue to see relative outperformance. ° Healthcare over Staples for defensive hedges: Large cap healthcare trades at a 4 turn discount to the broader S&P and a 6 turn disc ...

Core Insights - The Medical sector is experiencing a robust first-quarter earnings season, with several drugmakers reporting results, and large caps like J&J, Merck, and Amgen exceeding earnings and sales estimates [1][2] - Overall, first-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to rise by 40%, with revenues expected to increase by 8.3% [3] Earnings Performance - As of April 30, 45% of Medical sector companies, representing approximately 57.9% of the sector's market capitalization, have reported earnings, with 66.7% beating both earnings and revenue estimates [2] - Year-over-year earnings growth for the sector is reported at 60.5%, while revenues have increased by 7.8% [2] Company Highlights - **Novo Nordisk**: Expected to report earnings of 92 cents per share and revenues of $11.33 billion, with strong sales anticipated from diabetes and obesity care products [6][7] - **Pacira BioSciences**: Projected earnings of 57 cents per share and revenues of $174.96 million, driven by sales of its pain-management product Exparel [8][9] - **Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals**: Expected to report a loss of $1.54 per share and revenues of $141.99 million, with growth driven by its lead drug Crysvita [10][11] - **Acadia Pharmaceuticals**: Anticipated earnings of 6 cents per share and revenues of $241.74 million, primarily from sales of Nuplazid for Parkinson's disease psychosis [12][13] - **Denali Therapeutics**: Expected loss of 71 cents per share and revenues of $8.3 million, with updates on pipeline programs anticipated during the earnings report [17][18] Earnings Surprise Potential - The Earnings ESP methodology indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have a high chance of delivering earnings surprises, with a success rate of up to 70% [4][5]

Industry Overview - The first-quarter earnings season for the drug and biotech sector is underway, with major companies like Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Amgen, Biogen, and Regeneron set to announce results [1] - Johnson & Johnson and Merck have reported results, both exceeding first-quarter estimates for earnings and sales, while Sanofi had mixed results, beating earnings estimates but missing sales [1] Earnings Trends - As of April 23, 15% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 33.8% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with 77.8% surpassing estimates for both earnings and revenues [3] - Year-over-year earnings increased by 4.7%, and revenues rose by 9.4% [3] - Overall, first-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are expected to increase by 35%, while sales are projected to rise by 7.8% compared to the previous year [3] Company Performance Pfizer (PFE) - Pfizer has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 44.16% [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $13.88 billion and 64 cents per share, respectively [6] - Non-COVID operational revenues are driving growth, supported by products like Vyndaqel, Padcev, and Eliquis, despite a decline in sales of COVID products [7] Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly has had mixed performance, exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 8.47% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is $12.62 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively [8] - Growth is expected to be driven by demand for FDA-approved tirzepatide medicines, although sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations [9][10] Amgen (AMGN) - Amgen has shown strong performance, beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 5.23% [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $7.96 billion and $4.15 per share, respectively [11] - Product sales are expected to be driven by strong volume growth, although prices may decline due to higher rebates [12] Biogen (BIIB) - Biogen has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 11.80% [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is $2.23 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively [13] - Lower sales of multiple sclerosis drugs are likely to be offset by revenues from new drugs [14] Regeneron (REGN) - Regeneron has had mixed results, surpassing earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 3.23% [16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $3.28 billion and $8.43 per share, respectively [17] - Sales of Eylea are expected to have declined due to competition, but sales of Eylea HD and Dupixent are likely to have surged [18][19]

The first-quarter 2025 earnings season for the Medical sector is about to pick up pace this week. The sector mainly comprises pharma/biotech and medical device companies. The earnings season for the drug and biotech sector was kicked off last week when bellwether Johnson & Johnson reported strong first-quarter results, beating the estimates for its earnings and sales. JNJ also slightly raised its sales guidance range for the year. Most of the remaining large-cap pharmaceutical companies will report their fi ...