Industry Overview - The second-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is commencing, with most firms expected to release earnings results in the next two weeks, primarily consisting of pharma/biotech and medical device companies [1] - The earnings season for the drug and biotech sector began in mid-July, highlighted by Johnson & Johnson's strong performance, which exceeded earnings and sales estimates, leading to raised revenue and earnings expectations for the year [1] Company Performance - Novartis surpassed second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, driven by a year-over-year increase in sales of key drugs, prompting an upward revision of its annual guidance for core operating income [2] - Roche experienced solid growth in the first half of 2025, with high demand for key drugs offsetting declines in legacy drug sales [2] - As of July 23, 15% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 27.2% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with 88.9% outperforming earnings estimates and 100% beating revenue estimates [3] - Overall, second-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to increase by 0.9%, while sales are expected to rise by 7.9% compared to the previous year [3] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Merck, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers, AbbVie, and Moderna are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week [4] - Merck has a strong earnings track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 3.82% [5] - AstraZeneca has a mixed earnings history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.24% [8] - Bristol Myers has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 20.16% over the last four quarters [11] - AbbVie has also maintained a strong track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 2.55% [13] - Moderna has an excellent earnings history, with an average surprise of 31.60% in the last four quarters [15] Sales Drivers - Merck's growth in the second quarter is likely attributed to increased sales of its cancer drug Keytruda, driven by additional indications and patient demand [7] - AstraZeneca's sales are expected to be bolstered by strong demand for its cancer and diabetes medications [10] - Bristol Myers' revenue may be impacted by declines in legacy drug sales, but growth products are expected to partially offset this decline [12] - AbbVie's revenue is anticipated to be driven by strong sales of key drugs and contributions from newer products [14] - Moderna's revenues are expected to be influenced by sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, while the focus is shifting to updates on its broader pipeline [16]

10 July 2025 China Pharma and Biotech China Pharma & Biotech: recent rally, multiple expansions, and where we still see opportunities Rebecca Liang, Ph.D. +852 2123 2656 rebecca.liang@bernsteinsg.com Haopeng Zhou +852 2123 2630 haopeng.zhou@bernsteinsg.com William Pickering, MD +1 917 344 8340 william.pickering@bernsteinsg.com Louisa Qiu +1 917 344 8495 louisa.qiu@bernsteinsg.com Will the pharma / biotech rally go on? China healthcare is having the strongest rally since mid-2023. Hang Sang Biotech and MSCI ...

USA | US Insights Equity Research May 10, 2025 What You Need to Know We are pleased to present a selection of our most insightful, best-read, and most-watched US content. This week, we update our Mag7 long/short portfolio and make our final estimate on changes expected in the Russell's rebalance. We share views from corporates across healthcare on the changes at the FDA and anticipate an Executive Order on drug pricing as soon as next week. Big picture themes ... Quant Strategy: EPS risk is growing suggeste ...

• Trades we like: ° Large over small caps: Better pricing power and operational efficiency should continue to benefit large caps on a relative basis late in the cycle. Small caps have more economic sensitivity and more rate sensitivity. Given the slowing macro backdrop, a Fed that's on hold and sticky back- end rates, large caps should continue to see relative outperformance. ° Healthcare over Staples for defensive hedges: Large cap healthcare trades at a 4 turn discount to the broader S&P and a 6 turn disc ...

Industry Overview - The first-quarter earnings season for the drug and biotech sector is underway, with major companies like Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Amgen, Biogen, and Regeneron set to announce results [1] - Johnson & Johnson and Merck have reported results, both exceeding first-quarter estimates for earnings and sales, while Sanofi had mixed results, beating earnings estimates but missing sales [1] Earnings Trends - As of April 23, 15% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 33.8% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with 77.8% surpassing estimates for both earnings and revenues [3] - Year-over-year earnings increased by 4.7%, and revenues rose by 9.4% [3] - Overall, first-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are expected to increase by 35%, while sales are projected to rise by 7.8% compared to the previous year [3] Company Performance Pfizer (PFE) - Pfizer has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 44.16% [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $13.88 billion and 64 cents per share, respectively [6] - Non-COVID operational revenues are driving growth, supported by products like Vyndaqel, Padcev, and Eliquis, despite a decline in sales of COVID products [7] Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly has had mixed performance, exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 8.47% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is $12.62 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively [8] - Growth is expected to be driven by demand for FDA-approved tirzepatide medicines, although sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations [9][10] Amgen (AMGN) - Amgen has shown strong performance, beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 5.23% [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $7.96 billion and $4.15 per share, respectively [11] - Product sales are expected to be driven by strong volume growth, although prices may decline due to higher rebates [12] Biogen (BIIB) - Biogen has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 11.80% [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is $2.23 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively [13] - Lower sales of multiple sclerosis drugs are likely to be offset by revenues from new drugs [14] Regeneron (REGN) - Regeneron has had mixed results, surpassing earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 3.23% [16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $3.28 billion and $8.43 per share, respectively [17] - Sales of Eylea are expected to have declined due to competition, but sales of Eylea HD and Dupixent are likely to have surged [18][19]