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Adobe 的护城河正在被Sora2侵蚀
美股研究社· 2025-10-06 02:14
OpenAI 发布的 Sora 2 ,被认为是创意软件领域重心转向生成式软件的最强信号。 它不仅仅是"生成视频",而是能生成符合物理规律的运动场景,保持多镜头之间的状态一致,还能根据提示生成同步的语音与音效。相比之前 的版本,Sora 2 在 逼真度、可控性、视听表现 上都有显著提升。目前它已通过 iOS 的 Sora 新应用上线,未来还会扩展至更多平台。 与传统后期制作软件不同,OpenAI 选择将模型绑定在一款 社交化创作应用 中。Sora App 已在美国和加拿大开放邀请测试,用户可以对流行 趋势进行二次创作,还能通过"客串"功能,让好友的形象和声音出现在生成视频里,并支持共同管理与删除。当前视频时长上限为 10 秒,但 方向已经非常清晰。 过去一年,用户生成视频的进化速度有目共睹。Sora 2 的研究成果表明,这不仅是画面更美观,更是物理表现的全面升级:球体会正常弹跳而 非"瞬移",刚体之间能真实碰撞,漂浮物会自然漂移。这些改进意味着,生成视频已经从"玩具级演示"走向"可用于广告或叙事"。人类经验的 动作建模,正在以季度为单位加速,而不是几十年。 与此同时,谷歌的 Veo 3 也已上线消费级应用和专业 ...
OpenAI 的突破对 Adobe 来说很糟糕
美股研究社· 2025-04-11 12:08
Core Viewpoint - Adobe's dominance in the creative software market is increasingly threatened by the rise of AI-driven image and video generation tools, which are narrowing the gap between these tools and Adobe's professional suite, impacting its pricing power and long-term differentiation [1][4][13] Group 1: AI Threats to Adobe - OpenAI's latest image generator model has achieved significant improvements, allowing for high-fidelity image generation at a fraction of the cost of traditional software licenses [3][4] - The quality of AI-generated media is rapidly improving, making it accessible for amateur creators to produce impressive results without the need for professional software [4][8] - AI tools are not limited to image generation; they are also advancing in video creation, posing a direct challenge to Adobe's Premiere Pro and After Effects [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing Pressure - The rise of affordable AI tools threatens Adobe's ability to maintain high subscription prices for its Creative Cloud services, which currently costs around $55 per month for individual users [7][8] - As generative AI automates technical tasks, the necessity for full Creative Cloud licenses may diminish, leading Adobe to potentially lower prices or enhance value to justify costs [8][11] - Adobe's historical high profit margins may be squeezed as competition from AI tools intensifies [8][12] Group 3: Adobe's Current Position and Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, Adobe's financial health remains strong, with Q1 FY2025 revenue reaching $5.71 billion and annual recurring revenue (ARR) for its core digital media segment at $4.23 billion, indicating continued dominance for now [11][12] - Adobe's AI-driven product Firefly has generated over $125 million in ARR, with expectations to double by the end of 2025, showcasing the company's efforts to adapt [11][12] - However, Adobe faces fierce competition from resource-rich companies like Google and Microsoft, raising concerns about its ability to maintain a leading position in AI investments [12][13]