Does Apple Intelligence still matter for the stock? For a start, we will likely have to wait till at least spring 2026 for snippets of what Apple has up itsJR Research is an opportunistic investor. He was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst. He was also recognized by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. He identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha well above ...

Core Insights - Apple is considering a shift in its product launch strategy, potentially moving from a concentrated annual release in the fall to more frequent launches throughout the year, which could impact consumer behavior and competitive dynamics [1][2][4][7]. Product Launch Strategy - The traditional model of launching new iPhones in the fall has led consumers to delay purchases, anticipating new releases, while competitors have begun to launch their flagship phones earlier in the summer [2][4]. - Apple is expected to introduce more ambitious products, including a foldable phone, as part of a broader strategy to increase the frequency and number of product launches [4][5]. Marketing and Revenue Implications - The previous strategy of concentrated launches created marketing efficiencies but also concentrated revenue in specific periods, which may not be ideal for the company [5][7]. - The new approach aims to alleviate strain on various teams within Apple, including marketing and engineering, while also addressing revenue concentration issues [7]. Competitive Landscape - Apple faces significant competition from companies like Google and Samsung, which have been timing their announcements strategically to front-run Apple [8][10]. - In addition to U.S. competitors, Apple is encountering rising competition from domestic players in China, a critical market where Apple has seen a plateau in growth [10][11].

Summary of Apple Supply Chain Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Apple Supply Chain**, particularly regarding upcoming **form factor changes** in Apple products, which are expected to drive growth momentum and enhance valuations [1][22]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Form Factor Changes**: Anticipated changes include a slim model in 2025, foldable phones in 2026, and the 20th iPhone in 2027, which are expected to support end demand and increase supply chain dollar content [1][22]. - **Valuation**: Many Apple Supply Chain stocks are currently trading below their 3-year average P/E ratios, indicating attractive valuations [1][18]. - **Technology Leaders**: Companies that are technology leaders are expected to benefit as brand customers increasingly rely on them for new components that fit the new form factors [2][22]. - **Hinge Components**: There is a positive outlook on hinges for foldable phones due to better average selling prices (ASP) and gross margins compared to traditional PC hinges [2][22]. Key Companies and Recommendations - **Buy Recommendations**: - **Hon Hai (2317.TW)**: Strong execution and experience in iPhone assembly, expected to gain market share and dollar content increases [3][24]. - **Largan (3008.TW)**: Anticipated recovery in market share and gross margins due to reliance on technology leaders for premium camera components in foldable phones [3][26]. - **AAC (2018.HK)**: Expected to benefit from stabilization in competition and potential allocation in new form factor models [3][27]. - **TSMC (2330.TW)**: Key foundry partner for Apple, expected to benefit from new technology adoption in upcoming iPhone models [3][30]. - **SZS (3376.TW)**: A leading supplier of hinges, expanding capacity to meet demand for foldable devices [3][25]. Market Trends - **Foldable Phone Growth**: Global shipments of foldable phones increased by 144% QoQ and 22% YoY in 3Q25, indicating a growing trend towards foldable devices [15][17]. - **Premium Market Share**: The ASP for foldable phones rose by 14% QoQ and 12% YoY, reflecting consumer preference for premium models [17][22]. - **Penetration Rates**: Base case estimates for foldable iPhones suggest penetration rates of 4% in 2026 and 11% in 2027, with a bull case suggesting rates of 14% and 26% respectively [15][22]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Confidence**: The current low trading ranges of Apple Supply Chain stocks may reflect market skepticism regarding smartphone demand [18][22]. - **Competition**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected demand for foldable phones and increased competition among suppliers [33][34][36]. Conclusion - The Apple Supply Chain is poised for growth driven by upcoming product innovations and favorable market dynamics. Key players are recommended for investment based on their strategic positioning and expected benefits from the transition to new form factors.

Core Insights - Apple achieved record-breaking shipments in the latest quarter, but iPhone revenue of $49 billion fell short of estimates, raising questions about the disconnect between shipment success and revenue performance [1][2][4] - The iPhone constitutes over 50% of Apple's total revenue, marking a phenomenal year with the highest Q3 performance ever, despite economic and geopolitical challenges [2][4] - Apple experienced 4% growth in the smartphone market, outperforming the overall market growth of just over 3%, with positive growth noted even in China [4][6] Revenue and Market Performance - Greater China revenue significantly missed consensus estimates, coming in about 12% below expectations, indicating a need for Apple to reassess its reliance on this market [5][6] - Despite challenges in China, Apple maintains a dominant share in the premium smartphone market globally, with year-over-year average selling price (ASP) growth in iPhones [10][11] - The smartphone market is seeing a shift, with emerging markets showing strong growth, particularly in India and Turkey, while developed markets may experience flat growth [26] Competitive Landscape - Competition in China is intense, with strong loyalty towards local brands like Huawei, which poses challenges for Apple [7][10] - The introduction of foldable phones by Apple is anticipated to significantly impact the market, potentially transforming it from a niche segment to a more mainstream offering [20][21] - Consumer interest in Apple's foldable phones is growing, with nearly 40% of U.S. consumers expressing interest, indicating potential for market expansion [21] Future Growth Drivers - Approximately 500 million iPhones sold between 2020 and 2021 are approaching their upgrade cycle, which is expected to drive growth in the next two years [24][25] - Emerging markets are projected to continue driving growth, with strong double-digit growth rates observed in various regions [26]

Product Innovation - Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7 预计将带来可折叠手机的创新 [1] Market Focus - 行业关注 Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7 的创新设计 [1]

Foldable Market Trends - Samsung aims to mainstream foldable phones by addressing key user concerns [1] - Samsung widened the display of its foldable phones to improve usability compared to previous narrow designs [1][2] - Samsung released a sub-$1,000 foldable phone (Flip), making it more accessible beyond early adopters [2] - Apple's anticipated foldable phone launch next year is expected to significantly increase attention to the foldable category [4] Apple Executive Leadership Changes - Jeff Williams, a key decision-maker in Apple's product development, is departing, marking a significant change [5][6] - Tubby Khan, with three decades of experience in supply chain management, is taking over Williams' responsibilities [7] - John Ternus, the Senior VP of Hardware Engineering, is a potential candidate to succeed Tim Cook as CEO [8] - Significant movement within Apple's executive team is expected in the coming years [8]