Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs recommends investing in emerging market equities over the next one to five years, indicating they offer the highest expected returns compared to US stocks and other markets [1]. Group 1: Emerging Market Equities - Emerging market equities are projected to have an expected base case return of 8%, with a 55% probability assigned to this outcome [2]. - There is a 20% probability that emerging market returns will exceed expectations, while a 25% probability is assigned to a negative mid-teens return [2]. - The volatility in the base case for emerging markets is noted to be the greatest among all markets [2]. Group 2: US Stocks - US stocks, represented by the S&P 500, are forecasted to grow by 7% over the next 12 months and average 6% returns over the next five years [3]. - The report suggests that despite historically high valuations, US stock prices are expected to remain elevated due to declining volatility in the US economy, which supports a more reliable stream of corporate earnings [4]. Group 3: Other Markets - UK stocks and the MSCI All-Country World Index are projected to have average returns of 5% over the next five years, ranking third and fourth respectively [3]. - The forecasts are based on considerations of earnings growth, dividend yields, and expected changes in valuations [3]. Group 4: Investment Products - Funds that provide exposure to the expected top-performing trades include the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB), and iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) [4].

Core Insights - The trade tensions between the United States and China have escalated, leading to significant market volatility and a potential shift in investor focus towards UK ETFs as a safer investment option [1][3][10] Trade Tensions and Market Impact - President Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods has reignited fears of a trade war, resulting in a $2 trillion loss in equity values in a single trading day [4][5] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping over 2.7% and Nasdaq falling 3.6% [5] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 21.66, reflecting heightened investor anxiety, although it later decreased to 19.37, remaining elevated compared to earlier levels [8] Economic Landscape and ETF Opportunities - The U.S. economic environment is further complicated by a government shutdown, recession fears, and concerns over a potential AI bubble burst, making U.S.-heavy ETFs vulnerable [9] - UK ETFs are currently seen as more stable, with attractive valuations compared to U.S. counterparts, such as the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.84 versus the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) at 30.01 [10] - The EWU also offers a higher dividend yield of 3.68% compared to IVV's 1.18%, presenting a potential value opportunity for investors [10] UK ETFs to Consider - **iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU)**: Offers exposure to large and mid-sized UK companies, with top holdings including AstraZeneca (9.14%), HSBC (8.00%), and Shell (7.33%). It has gained 13.4% over the past year with fees of 50 basis points [13] - **Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB)**: Focuses on UK large and mid-cap companies, with top holdings also including AstraZeneca (8.48%), HSBC (7.67%), and Shell (7.14%). It has gained 13.4% over the past year with fees of 9 basis points [14] - **First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (FKU)**: Provides exposure to select stocks from the Nasdaq United Kingdom Index, with top holdings including International Consolidated Airlines Group (2.52%) and Rio Tinto (2.45%). It has gained 17% over the past year with fees of 80 basis points [15]